2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Steve H.]

Actually, navgem at 12z had developed it. but ecmwf does develop a low east of the Bahamas as well, but unrelated to the wave. FYI.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I know it's late in the season for the MDR but considering the time of year the wave did not look to bad.

[aspen]

The latest GFS runs don’t predict much for Invests 91W and 92W out in the WPac, but they do show a potential depression forming around 7-10 N/170-175 E by the middle of next week. Even the Euro picks up on it too. Both models track it W/WNW, for now at least.

[Steve H.]

Euro also picks up on a GOM low moving across Florida up the coast as a large Nor'easter next week. Active weather pattern next week in the east.

[Emmett_Brown]

0Z Euro now showing a 998 mb hybrid type low off the SE US coast by 11/17. GFS shows a weaker low in the same area. It then moves rapidly NE and transitions to a fully cold core noreaster off the NE coast. Could be some interesting late season hybrid activity to watch as we close out this fickle and strange hurricane season.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a developing frontal low to me.

[jconsor]

The system moving through the northern GOM and off the East coast starts out cold-core/frontal, but as it sits over the anomalously warm Gulf stream with SSTs up to 28C, there is a decent chance for it to transform into a subtropical or tropical cyclone. (Similar process to what occurred with Melissa, with a subtropical/tropical cyclone forming in the midst of a larger mid-latitude cyclone/upper low, but just further south).




Both the 6z GFS and 0z UKMET and ECMWF indicate a transition to a shallow warm-core system.









https://imgur.com/a/kqPXI1H

[Emmett_Brown]

0Z Euro showing an interesting looking low developing in the MDR after 160 hours, heading WNW just N of the Lesser Antilles. Not a normal look for November if this develops!

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1193907695545438208

0Z Euro showing an interesting looking low developing in the MDR after 160 hours, heading WNW just N of the Lesser Antilles. Not a normal look for November if this develops!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1193921568566599680

[HurricaneEnzo]

But we aren't out of the 'normal bounds' for Hurricane season. It runs to the end of November for a reason

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[1900hurricane]

Sure, but to be fair, we are way on the backside of the NAtl season at this point climatologically. It becomes increasingly rare to get a TC with a combination of notable strength and duration this late, especially in true tropical areas.

[TheStormExpert]

But we aren't out of the 'normal bounds' for Hurricane season. It runs to the end of November for a reason

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Yes but Cape Verde Season is TYPICALLY long over with at this point so this would be extremely rare.

[aspen]

Somehow, multiple models are showing something coming out of that Cape Verde disturbance. The GFS has a tropical storm over the weekend, the Euro shows the disturbance heading just north of the Greater Antilles, and the NAVGEM develops a tropical cyclone as early as Friday morning.

[GCANE]

GFS & UKMET show a warm-core genesis in about 90 to 96 hrs arounf 15N 50W.
GFS tracks it OTS, UKMET may get close to the Bahamas.
Euro is a bit later at about 120 hrs with a track just NE of PR.
None of these get anywhere close to CONUS.

[EquusStorm]

To be fair there is sort of precedence with late season wave thing in the Kates of 1985 and 2015, just developing significantly further east which would be certainly very unusual. Also later in season than the latter.

[HurricaneEnzo]

The Euro is showing what appears to be some tropical/subtropical mischief in the GOM on 12/23. Looks like a quick spinup of something. I'm guessing the odds of this happening are extremely LOW. Does anyone know if there is any historical records of December tropical systems in the GOM?

[Hurricanehink]

The Euro is showing what appears to be some tropical/subtropical mischief in the GOM on 12/23. Looks like a quick spinup of something. I'm guessing the odds of this happening are extremely LOW. Does anyone know if there is any historical records of December tropical systems in the GOM?

A tropical storm struck Florida on December 1, 1925. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1925_Florida_tropical_storm

[Steve]

The Euro is showing what appears to be some tropical/subtropical mischief in the GOM on 12/23. Looks like a quick spinup of something. I'm guessing the odds of this happening are extremely LOW. Does anyone know if there is any historical records of December tropical systems in the GOM?

GFS has a double-barreled low at 12z 12-19-19. On or about Sunday morning, there's a low south of Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties. By 78 hours (1pm local), it's on land there. While spinning, it comes offshore there again and moves toward the BIg Bend. It's over around Jacksonville at 96 hours then finally moves off the coast of NE FL and another low to its east is spinning up about 150 miles east. Could be a STS or just a winter storm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=102

[HurricaneEnzo]

The Euro is showing what appears to be some tropical/subtropical mischief in the GOM on 12/23. Looks like a quick spinup of something. I'm guessing the odds of this happening are extremely LOW. Does anyone know if there is any historical records of December tropical systems in the GOM?

GFS has a double-barreled low at 12z 12-19-19. On or about Sunday morning, there's a low south of Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties. By 78 hours (1pm local), it's on land there. While spinning, it comes offshore there again and moves toward the BIg Bend. It's over around Jacksonville at 96 hours then finally moves off the coast of NE FL and another low to its east is spinning up about 150 miles east. Could be a STS or just a winter storm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=102

Yeah looking more just like a winter storm now. Looks to be a pretty slow mover Gulf States gonna get some pretty decent rain.