2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gfsperpendicular]

That the models don't show immediate development with these next few AEWs actually concerns me more, typically early development leads to a quicker gain in latitude (e.g. Gabrielle). It means these waves will travel further west before potentially finding a more suitable environment to develop. One thing is for sure, the WAM is now at a dangerous latitude for some waves to track into the Caribbean, with a ton of ammunition coming off the coast in the next few weeks:

https://i.imgur.com/zAaLau6.jpg

Humberto, Imelda, and their quirky family. Wow

[Steve]

Hard to say what’s going to happen next couple weeks. Might be a delay with the suppressive wave then a reload. JMA likes a drop into Phase 2 or 3 MJO but it’s been on its own. It’s pretty good with MJO but if it’s superseded by some other phenomenon, then it doesn’t matter. GFS still sort of targets south of but toward Bermuda with a 940s system. Legacy is farther west.

[Steve]

cmc targets the northern islands
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=168

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Euro, GFS and Canadian all have a storm at 240hrs near the NE Caribbean. Amazing agreement this far out








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[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00z Euro, GFS and Canadian all have a storm at 240hrs near the NE Caribbean. Amazing agreement this far out

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190907/1eac730327998823cdbfd07f389c0e66.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190907/1c3dd2d7be7e0d18517e226cc1e14d06.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190907/fc665e3446e29d47e75f63f6a7a4e5a6.png


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06Z GFS Legacy develops it as well

[Steve]

Euro 12z had something cross Florida and head into SELA on a wnw heading. I want to see the 00z. GFS rams Florida with maybe a 3. Canadian doesn’t have much other than a SEly flow. Icon brings something toward Florida and shows low pressure in the NE Gulf. Could end up being an interesting week ahead if the JMA hit the MJO best and the European continues to show the weakness.

Edit still shows some low pressure propagating this way. Nothing crazy but the EC is bringing low pressure to this side of the basin.

[chaser1]

Euro 12z had something cross Florida and head into SELA on a wnw heading. I want to see the 00z. GFS rams Florida with maybe a 3. Canadian doesn’t have much other than a SEly flow. Icon brings something toward Florida and shows low pressure in the NE Gulf. Could end up being an interesting week ahead if the JMA hit the MJO best and the European continues to show the weakness.

I'm feeling safe just so long as GFS has Florida as it's bullseye LOL. It's when that changes that I start getting a bit more unnerved here in Central Florida

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the GFS has been trying to develop something that is currently over central Africa behind the wave that just left Africa, maybe something to keep an eye on in future runs

[MJGarrison]

Looks as though the GFS has been trying to develop something that is currently over central Africa behind the wave that just left Africa, maybe something to keep an eye on in future runs

Can we call this one the wave east of the wave east of 94L?


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[Hammy]

Canadian back to being the crazy uncle of forecast models?

[Tailspin]

https://i.imgur.com/pJD4tTA.png Canadian back to being the crazy uncle of forecast models?

https://imgur.com/IndWWlD

00z 10th looked more legit.

[StruThiO]

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/4Htr4ry.png

It may just happen, the mjo will be going into the phases 8 And 1 the next 15 days

[Nimbus]

Euro 12z had something cross Florida and head into SELA on a wnw heading. I want to see the 00z. GFS rams Florida with maybe a 3. Canadian doesn’t have much other than a SEly flow. Icon brings something toward Florida and shows low pressure in the NE Gulf. Could end up being an interesting week ahead if the JMA hit the MJO best and the European continues to show the weakness.

I'm feeling safe just so long as GFS has Florida as it's bullseye LOL. It's when that changes that I start getting a bit more unnerved here in Central Florida

Some low level energy did make into the gulf but there is too much shear from the upper level low to even consider an invest there at this time.

[srainhoutx]

I guess no one wants to discuss the potential Western/NW Gulf disturbance that has some ensemble support for possible genesis in the 48 to 96 hour range. I give that area of 40% possibility of seeing TC Genesis as the mid/upper low fills in and attempts to become warm cored with a surface low around Monday or Tuesday.

[SoupBone]

I guess no one wants to discuss the potential Western/NW Gulf disturbance that has some ensemble support for possible genesis in the 48 to 96 hour range. I give that area of 40% possibility of seeing TC Genesis as the mid/upper low fills in and attempts to become warm cored with a surface low around Monday or Tuesday.

Our paid guys discussed it in this morning's report and give it only 5% chance of development. They do comment that it could bring rain to South Texas, which wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Kingarabian]

Last couple of Euro runs don't show much in the long range. However the GFS continues to show a hurricane developing NE of the islands by day 10.

[Steve]

I guess no one wants to discuss the potential Western/NW Gulf disturbance that has some ensemble support for possible genesis in the 48 to 96 hour range. I give that area of 40% possibility of seeing TC Genesis as the mid/upper low fills in and attempts to become warm cored with a surface low around Monday or Tuesday.

Energy is there. Looks like and upper low with a surface trough behind it. I haven’t looked at the Gulf surface plots, but I’m assuming some of those showers are shear induced within an overall cyclonic pattern.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Steve]

Also you can see the umbrella shape which was depicted in some of the models before they could resolve there would be split energy instead of a TS in the NE Gulf. No models really do anything with it except the NAM and RGEM do hint at some turning - just nothing past infant stage.

[sphelps8681]

I guess no one wants to discuss the potential Western/NW Gulf disturbance that has some ensemble support for possible genesis in the 48 to 96 hour range. I give that area of 40% possibility of seeing TC Genesis as the mid/upper low fills in and attempts to become warm cored with a surface low around Monday or Tuesday.

Just heard about it on the local news.