2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#21 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:54 pm

xironman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The FV3-GFS upgrade will now occur on March 20 2019 pending successful 30-day technical tests.

https://twitter.com/NWSEMC/status/1095791865503404032



Look at the replies to the tweet. I don't know how it does with tropical systems but the FV3-GFS has been an unmitigated disaster for mid-latitude weather this winter. Even RaleighWX was mocking it. Here is a snow map for 2/16 from 0z 2/12 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126 showing me with 10" of snowfall on what turned out to be a partly cloudy day in the 40s. Please no. Hopefully they keep the old model running.


Your link is for todays latest 126 hr FV3. Not the past.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:52 am

The FV3-GFS upgrade postponed until further notice

Excerpts below.

Testing continues for the Global Forecasting System (GFS)
Version 15 - using the Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3)
dynamical core. NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
conducted, and continues to conduct, extensive evaluation and
verification of the model. The GFS with the FV3 core shows
continued improvement over the legacy GFS for many forecast
parameters.

EMC is aware of two issues:
-The snow depth and the water equivalent of snow depth at the
surface have unrealistically large values when precipitation
occurs in environments with low-level temperature profiles close
to freezing. Techniques that use either of these variables for
deriving snowfall will exhibit excessive snowfall values.

-The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere
that became more prominent after late September 2018.
EMC is investigating both issues and any necessary changes will
be tested. After sufficient testing and evaluation an
announcement will be sent when NCEP Central Operations (NCO) is
ready to start the formal 30-day IT Stability Test. The model
implementation schedule is currently paused during the
investigation.


https://www.weather.gov/media/notificat ... gfsv15.pdf
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#23 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:37 am

Bottom line is that it's a cold-biased snow-mongering model for the Gulf Coast.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#24 Postby chaser1 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:Bottom line is that it's a cold-biased snow-mongering model for the Gulf Coast.


Could make for some fun April-May Subtropical genesis modeling LOL. "...... as the deepening low approaches the Cedar Key area, warm core transition looks to rapidly take place and inland snow flurries over extreme S. Georgia quickly changing back over to light rain in advance of T.S. Andrea's slow approach from the SSW...."
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:12 am

Maybe something subtropical forms in the next few days in Central Atlantic?

GFS

Image

ECMWF

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#26 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:Maybe something subtropical forms in the next few days in Central Atlantic?

GFS

https://i.imgur.com/9tldKjx.png

ECMWF

https://i.imgur.com/UN71lrD.png


Nice something to watch for anyways. Timeframe isn't that far out and model support from GFS and Euro. Obviously the odds are against it this time of year but could we get a way early pre-season surprise? :grrr:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#27 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:40 pm

Want to see some real entertainment? Check out what the Euro has just off the SE U.S. coast at day 10 on its 12z run. Crazy huh?

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#28 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:06 pm

^ The signal is there though, with the GFS also showing a low (granted, much weaker) in that vicinity during the same time frame. Don't think it'd be tropical, but something that bears watching?
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#29 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:04 pm

AdamFirst wrote:^ The signal is there though, with the GFS also showing a low (granted, much weaker) in that vicinity during the same time frame. Don't think it'd be tropical, but something that bears watching?

Saw the GFS showing something similar although weaker, but it definitely looks frontal one way or another. It’s just interesting that it originates from the Bay of Campeche.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#30 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:43 pm

:uarrow: GFS was showing this back on Friday its long range. The model dropped it, and now has brought it back.

The 12Z EURO now develops this closer to the Southeast U.S. coast within the next 10 days and deepens the system to 987 mb. Still a bit skeptical on this being a strong system, but will watch it the next few model run cycles.

I think this potential system, if it develops, will most likely be a weaker hybrid, as climatology just is against this, but hey stranger things have happened.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#31 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:01 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Want to see some real entertainment? Check out what the Euro has just off the SE U.S. coast at day 10 on its 12z run. Crazy huh?

http://i64.tinypic.com/2drihj5.png


Yeah apparenlty a monster area of low pressure is supposed to form in the Mid-West in the near future. Some energy breaks off from that down in the Gulf. A low forms in the Gulf and rides up the East Coast. Obviously a long way out but something to keep an eye on. Would be crazy if it verifies.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#32 Postby chaser1 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:44 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:^ The signal is there though, with the GFS also showing a low (granted, much weaker) in that vicinity during the same time frame. Don't think it'd be tropical, but something that bears watching?

Saw the GFS showing something similar although weaker, but it definitely looks frontal one way or another. It’s just interesting that it originates from the Bay of Campeche.


ICON is on board as well. As for it originating down in the BOC......, that is rather interesting. Perhaps a harbinger of how our Tropical Season might just kick off a bit early over the upcoming month or two?
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:05 am

That's a baroclinic low.

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#34 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:17 am

1900hurricane wrote:That's a baroclinic low.

https://i.imgur.com/mNZxt9c.png


I live right along the coast of NC. Should be a pretty potent 'Nor'Easter' if this verifies. We don't really need any rain/wind right now ground is still saturated from Florence and the deluge of rain that has followed in the last few months.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#35 Postby chaser1 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:21 pm

1900hurricane wrote:That's a baroclinic low.

https://i.imgur.com/mNZxt9c.png


Very much so.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#36 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:10 pm

Somewhat similar to the March 12-14, 1993 "Storm of the Century". Not nearly as strong in the Gulf, though. You can look back at those maps here. Use the calendar button top right of the website to go back to 1993.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#37 Postby chaser1 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:Somewhat similar to the March 12-14, 1993 "Storm of the Century". Not nearly as strong in the Gulf, though. You can look back at those maps here. Use the calendar button top right of the website to go back to 1993.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php


Amazing how much that low deepened in that short period of time?! Early on the 12th, that surface feature in the N.W. Gulf looked so innocuous.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:51 am

Great news about the next ECMWF upgrade.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1106215970916294656


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#39 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:37 am

Some tropical or at least subtropical development look possible on S-ATL on the weekend or early next week. The GFS is very agressive and shows a hurricane now and in the yesterday 12Z and 18Z runs too. The ECM and GEM also develop the cyclone, but only to a weak tropical storm.

Also the actual extratropical low farther southeast (in the top of this satellite image) could aquire some subtropical characteristics in the next days according to some models. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/NATURALCOLOR/ANTARCTIC/index.htm

Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:26 pm

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