2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#41 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Great news about the next ECMWF upgrade.

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1106215970916294656


They should have gone with Cray as did the European.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#42 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:04 pm

Just for giggles:

The 18z GEFS actually has several TC developments in the Western Caribbean and Eastern Pacific in late April. I see a 995 mb and 999 mb low in the Caribbean, as well as several EPAC developments including one member as strong as 970 mb. This obviously won't happen and it's a known bias for the model, but I've never seen it show genesis in that region in the month of April before.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#43 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:38 am

:uarrow: Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the W. Caribbean is the first place we look for Andrea next month or June.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:26 pm

Is medium range.

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#45 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:02 pm

:uarrow: No thanks, I’ll pass!
:na:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#46 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:52 pm

Image

Looks like the Euro has it too


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#47 Postby Weather150 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:55 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the W. Caribbean is the first place we look for Andrea next month or June.

Agree.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:06 am

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#49 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:17 am

You beat me to it! :lol: Maybe Andrea could happen sooner than May?
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#50 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:54 pm

Yep, I see it now. The blob around 29 N 60 W now.
OTS (NE movement) but interesting. I guess the sub-tropics is a place we're going to have to watch this year.
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