IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

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SoupBone
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IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#1 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:50 pm

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model?cm_ven=hp-slot-2

Graf vs Euro vs GFS? :lol:

"IBM announced today that they will be introducing the world’s highest-resolution global weather forecasting model later in 2019--the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF). The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.

The current top global forecasting models, the European (ECMWF) model and the U.S. GFS model, subdivide the global atmosphere into grid boxes that average 9 kilometers and 13 kilometers on a side, respectively, then solve the mathematical equations of atmospheric flow to generate a forecast for each of those grid cells. The new GRAF model employs a variable-resolution grid, resembling a honeycomb, that can be configured with higher resolution over areas of particular interest (Figure 1). Over land areas, the GRAF grid elements will have average resolutions of 3 km, which is about 3 - 4 times greater than the European and GFS models."

https://business.weather.com/blog/new-weather-system-improved-forecasting-around-the-world?token=iVr8~2_mrVW6SGn07ioh~1pDV5kskRXj

"Weather influences what people do--where we travel, what we eat, even how we feel. Weather is arguably the single most important external swing factor in business performance, potentially responsible for nearly half a trillion dollars in economic impact each year in the U.S. alone.

At the same time, reporting of extreme weather events – droughts, wild fires, heavy rainfall, floods – is becoming more common. As such, the world needs better, more accurate, more finely-tuned weather forecasts.

For these reasons, IBM is introducing the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System. The system, called GRAF for short, will be the first hourly-updating weather system that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet. Compared to existing models, it will provide a nearly 200% improvement in forecasting resolution for much of the globe (from 12 to 3 sq km). It will be available later this year.

GRAF represents a huge step forward. Until now, much of the world had to settle for predictions from models that covered 12- to 15-kilometer swaths of land—too wide to capture many weather phenomena. In addition, leading weather models update less frequently, every 6 to 12 hours in much of the world. In contrast, GRAF will provide 3-kilometer resolution that updates hourly, delivering reliable predictions for the day ahead.

Not only will this much-improved weather system help people and communities better plan for upcoming weather conditions, it will help:

Utility companies to better position repair crews to get power back faster after a storm
Airlines to more effectively route around turbulence
Farmers to better anticipate and prepare for dramatic shifts in weather
Insurers to predict surges in weather-related claims
Retailers to stock their shelves more efficiently"
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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#2 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:53 pm

Interesting read. I wonder what IBM did with MPAS when NOAA picked FV3?


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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#3 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:05 pm

I don't buy it. Too many variables that will be unknown due to lack of initialization data down to that scale.
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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#4 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:46 am

I'll bet the data of the model won't be public
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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#5 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:02 am

NotSparta wrote:I'll bet the data of the model won't be public


Of course it won't be made public. You'll have to pay to see it - probably quite a bit.
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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#6 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:40 am

wxman57 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:I'll bet the data of the model won't be public


Of course it won't be made public. You'll have to pay to see it - probably quite a bit.



I wonder if some of the larger, paid weather service companies like StormGeo will purchase it for their forecasting.
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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#7 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:43 am

SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:I'll bet the data of the model won't be public


Of course it won't be made public. You'll have to pay to see it - probably quite a bit.



I wonder if some of the larger, paid weather service companies like StormGeo will purchase it for their forecasting.


I'm sure it would be priced such that only a government agency could afford it, like the Florida State superensemble. It's unlikely we'll ever see output from it.
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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#8 Postby MJGarrison » Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:45 pm

Looking through a few reports, it seems like IBM may try to use smartphone barometers and personal weather stations as inputs to the model.

IBM owns The Weather Company which owns and Weather.com and Weather Underground (though apparently not The Weather Channel itself). Model output will be used in those apps for forecasts. The Washington Post is reporting that whether or not the model output is available for purchase has not yet been determined.

I suppose it make sense that IBM is trying to make use of all the data uploaded to Weather Underground (my data included).


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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:37 am

MJGarrison wrote:Looking through a few reports, it seems like IBM may try to use smartphone barometers and personal weather stations as inputs to the model.

IBM owns The Weather Company which owns and Weather.com and Weather Underground (though apparently not The Weather Channel itself). Model output will be used in those apps for forecasts. The Washington Post is reporting that whether or not the model output is available for purchase has not yet been determined.

I suppose it make sense that IBM is trying to make use of all the data uploaded to Weather Underground (my data included).


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Some people will up to share their data, but most wont. Especially in this day of privacy violations across major social media and tech platforms.

So if IBM is betting on "x" million people for their model to be accurate it may backfire.
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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#10 Postby MJGarrison » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:45 am

I think I’m a little more optimistic. Every day millions users of google maps give their gps location and speed so that traffic conditions can be determined. Giving barometric pressure and gps location in exchange for presumably more accurate weather data wouldn’t be the worst proposition.

Also Weather Underground already has access to 250K weather stations which is a good number of data points. The question for me would be accuracy of the data. Wunderground already has a way to evaluate the consistency of the data from PWS but I’m not sure how they evaluate accuracy. My anemometer is consistent but it has poor placement and readings are always low. Not much I can do about that but maybe their software can compensate for it.


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Re: IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

#11 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:18 pm

Good catch SoupBone. It's an interesting article.

Having an additional global model with the prospect of enhanced localized forecast ability and rapid updating is an interesting proposition. I'm guessing there will be some sort of public "nearer term" availability in exchange for access and use of individual GPS and barometric reading updates. The best form of marketing typically stems from broad-scale usability and proof of concept. The FSU Supercomputer model had already provided some level of open access familiarity prior to it being bought to the highest bidder. My question is what forecast algorithms will the IBM GRAF use? Seems to me that once their new "now-casts" are functional and available, these may be very useful to many. On the other hand there's no clear reason to suggest or infer that it's long term forecasts will necessarily have any accuracy at all.

Here's food for thought. Regardless of GRAF's limited (or zero) unpaid availability, any usefulness that may be derived will only spur other private or public entities to eventually compete to duplicate or even surpass it. The question remains...... will our eventual zero emission flying cars be capable of disseminating the data into our Google Skymaps? :lol:
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