Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

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AtlanticWind
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Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

#1 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:29 am

New paper from the nhc

Recent NiHC Publication: Have we reached the limits of predictability for tropical cyclone track forecasting?
Link is on NHC home page under news
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Re: Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

#2 Postby tolakram » Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:07 am

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Re: Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

#3 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:30 am

Here is the link to the paper by Chris Landsea and John Cangialosi. I think that ensembles are the way to go, but with the elimination of the extreme outlier members, as suggested by Chris & John when discussing 2012's Debby in the Gulf. However, the long-range (5+ days) forecast error curve is flattening out. I think one big issue is still the lack of good surface and upper air obs over the oceans. If the models aren't being initialized properly due to bad or missing data, then they can't forecast the long-range track well.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0136.1
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