Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

#1 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:29 am

New paper from the nhc

Recent NiHC Publication: Have we reached the limits of predictability for tropical cyclone track forecasting?
Link is on NHC home page under news
3 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19140
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

#2 Postby tolakram » Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:07 am

1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22474
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Limit of predictability on hurricane paths reached?

#3 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:30 am

Here is the link to the paper by Chris Landsea and John Cangialosi. I think that ensembles are the way to go, but with the elimination of the extreme outlier members, as suggested by Chris & John when discussing 2012's Debby in the Gulf. However, the long-range (5+ days) forecast error curve is flattening out. I think one big issue is still the lack of good surface and upper air obs over the oceans. If the models aren't being initialized properly due to bad or missing data, then they can't forecast the long-range track well.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0136.1
5 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dougiefresh, ljmac75, NotSparta and 22 guests