King Euro still.

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OuterBanker
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King Euro still.

#1 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:08 am

Partly because of local interest and just outright curiosity the past week I have been following the models just to see which is the most accurate and consistent.

About a week ago they all started to see the low that is expected to develop off the se coast. But they have been all over the place.

The most consistent (and seems to be the most accurate) is by far the Euro. All along it has insisted that it will be closer to the coast.

To my surprise second place goes to the ICON. Not sure what this model is or if it just happened to be lucky this time, but it too has been consistent.

The GFS and FV3 have been all over the place. And quite disappointing frankly. They are supposed to be the USA flagship. And as usual it eventually came around to the Euro.

Finally, a big thank you to Tropical Tidbits for giving us all and outlet to compare.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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J_J99
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Re: King Euro still.

#2 Postby J_J99 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:58 pm

I think the biggest lesson we learned from the 2018 ATL hurricane season was the Euro is not infallible and the GFS/ FV3 are more accurate than their reputation suggests.

Even in 2017, the GFS (other than the obnoxious (but without a cuba vacation 99% likely) low pressures) ended up being more accurate than the Euro on Irmas approach to FL. The Euro is a good model, but is not the end all be all and is prone to making mistakes as well.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

WeatherEmperor
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Re: King Euro still.

#3 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:17 pm

In terms of tropical cyclone forecasting it would appear that the HFIP corrected consensus is King. We dont have access to the data because it is private...but I remember many times during Irma’s approach to Florida the NHC constantly praising its accuracy and consistency compared to the other models. I wish there were some way we can see the HFIP and even the FSU super ensemble but we dont have the money to pay for it sadly :(


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