Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

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cycloneye
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Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:00 am

Ok folks,here is the poll you were waiting for,the forecast numbers poll for the 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is here to forget about winter and talk about tropical weather and see how the season will be in terms of the numbers. Below are a few tips about this poll:

1-You can post your numbers whenever you want between April 15 at 11 AM EDT and May 31 at Midnight EDT. when the poll closes.Also members can add a brief commentary if you want to do so about why you have the numbers you posted in the poll.

2-You can post a set of numbers and not change them anymore.In that case I will consider your numbers as final.

3-If you have preliminary numbers and later you are going to post final ones, those will be posted with the word Final. If by May 31 at Midnight EDT when the poll closes,there are still members that have preliminary numbers,I will consider them as final ones.

4-Unnamed Storms that may form will count as part of the numbers.

5-Any early named system(s) that may form before June 1rst count for the set of numbers,but normally the poll is for systems that form between June 1rst and November 30th.

6-If a system is upgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Hurricane in Post-Season Report,it will count for the final tally to see which members came close or nailed the numbers.

7-(Optional) The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) numbers for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season will not count for the poll but if any member wants to post what they think about how the ACE will be you can do so.

8-Anyone can participate,from the pro mets,those who like Tropical Weather and like to track tropical systems,those who dont know a lot about tropical weather,and the newbies too are welcomed.I know that the numbers are not the most important thing in a season.The most important thing are where the storms will go,so it doesn't matter how many named storms form,as it only takes one system to do all the damage to an area.However,it's always very interesting to make a poll like this to see what the members think about the numbers game and how active or not the season will turn out.Let's see at the end of the season,how many members get close or tie what the 2019 season will offer.

9-If you see that you are not added to the list rapidly,dont worry because as soon I come on-line you will be added.I will be mainly on-line in the morning hours between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM to add the overnight participants.Also I will be on-line between 1:00 PM and 11 PM in and out daily so again,dont worry if you are not on the list rapidly. I may be off line at longer periods if power outages occur as the infractucture of our power company in PR is not great after Maria.Those who may post very high set of numbers or very low set of numbers dont freak out at all because that doesn't matter.So let's get this thing rolling guys and gals and let's see if this 2019 poll has a better participation than the 2018 one,when only 91 members posted their numbers. Or we can do much better if the poll reaches for the first time since these polls began in 2005 the 200+ participants mark.

Good luck to all.


Hyperlinks to past polls below:

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018



List of participants below:

1-cycloneye=13/7/2 (Final)
2-Hurricaneman=14/7/3 ACE: 100 (Preliminary)
3-CyclonicFury=12/5/2 ACE: 90 (Preliminary)
4-weathaguyry=14/7/3 ACE:107 (Preliminary)
5-FLCrackerGirl=15/8/3 (Final)
6-AnnularCane=12/5/2 (Preliminary)
7-NonSparta=-13/7-2 ACE: 95 (Preliminary)
8-DioBrando=13/6/3 ACE:100 (Preliminary)
9- TorSkk=14/6/3 ACE: 100 (Preliminary)
10-Sciencerocks=13/5/2 ACE: 74 (Final)
11-gigabite=19/8/3 ACE: 119 (Final)
12-Chris90=12/7/2 ACE: 88 (Preliminary)
13-TropicalAnalystwx13=16/8/4 ACE: 120 (Final)
14- StruThiO=15/7/4 ACE: 140 (Preliminary)
15-Cerlin=14/8/3 ACE: 112 (Final)
16-TheStormExpert=13/6/3 ACE: 100 (Preliminary)
17-ouragans=12/6/ 4 ACE: 105 (Final)
18-tolakram=15/8/2 ACE: 100 (Final)
19-vbhoutex=13/6/3 ACE: 95 (Final)
20-zal0phus=12/7/4 ACE: 112 (Final)
21-northjaxpro=14/5/3 ACE: 125 (Preliminary)
22-galaxy401=13/6/3 ACE: 120 (Preliminary)
23-HurricaneJed=15/9/5 (Preliminary)
24-Ubuntwo=12/5/2 ACE: 90 (Preliminary)
25-crownweather=10/6/3 ACE: 95 (Final)
26-J_J99=14/4/3 ACE: 138 (Preliminary)
27-StormingBB1=14/5/2 (Final)
28-Shell Mound=14/7/3 ACE: 120 (Preliminary)
29-CrazyC83=12/5/2 ACE: 80 (Preliminary)
30-Annie Oakley=12/6/3 (Final)
31-johngaltfla=9/4/2 ACE: 72 (Final)
32-yoda=14/5/3 (Preliminary)
33-pcbjr=11/5/2 ACE: 95 (Final)
34-JtSmarts =13/7/3 (Preliminary)
35-Tireman4=15/8/3 (Final)
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:02 am

14/7/3. Ace 100 preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:11 am

12-5-2 ACE 90 Preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#4 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:18 am

14/7/3 ACE:107 Preliminary

In my opinion, it is likely that the beginning of the season will be fairly quiet with perhaps a few homegrown or subtropical storms, but I do believe the El Niño will fade some by September, and a few decent storms will be able to form later in the season.
Last edited by weathaguyry on Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#5 Postby FLCrackerGirl » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:19 am

15/8/3
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#6 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:38 am

12/5/2 Preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#7 Postby NotSparta » Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:11 am

13-7-2 ACE 95 (preliminary)
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#8 Postby DioBrando » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:01 pm

13-6-3, ACE of 100 (prelims of course)
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#9 Postby TorSkk » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:47 pm

14/6/3 ACE 100 (preliminary)
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:46 pm

13, 5, 2

74 ace
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#11 Postby gigabite » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:13 pm

Gigabite=19,8,3 ACE: 119 (Final)
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#12 Postby Chris90 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:46 pm

12/7/2 ACE: 88 preliminary.

These are the numbers that have been rolling around in my head for awhile, so that's what I'm starting with. I do think I may end up increasing them by May 31st though. The Nino is looking like it could quite possibly end up as a modoki that fades as we get to the heart of the season, and there have been rumblings that the WAM will be decently strong. Still a lot of uncertainty. Seems like a lot of us who have participated so far are thinking pretty similarly though in regards to numbers right now.
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Goodbye to a record setting winter, hello springtime severe season! :sun:

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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#13 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:00 pm

16-8-4 ACE 120

El Nino should be gone by season's peak. Couple that with a record wet Sahel and at least an average Atlantic SST profile for another above-average season.
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:52 pm

A good start for the poll with 13 participating but I will go to sleep so will be back on Tuesday morning to continue the adding of more members.
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#15 Postby StruThiO » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:59 pm

15/7/4 ACE 140 prelim
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#16 Postby Cerlin » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:55 pm

14/8/3. ACE: 112 (FINAL)

I’m more of a mainland weather guy so I’m limited in my knowledge of tropical storm systems—however, I do think we’re setup for an active season. Hoping for some great cyclones to track!
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:04 am

Good morning. Second day of the poll so let's see how many more get in to grow the list from 15.
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#18 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:26 am

13/6/3 ACE: 100 (Preliminary)

It's hard to say what this season may look like at this moment. We still have to get through the Spring Barrier, and see if models continue to trend down more neutral with the ENSO.
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#19 Postby NotSparta » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:37 am

cycloneye wrote:Good morning. Second day of the poll so let's see how many more get in to grow the list from 15.


Hope we can get 100 predictions, we missed that in 2018
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Re: Storm2k 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll

#20 Postby ouragans » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:48 am

12 - 6 - 4 ACE 105 Final
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