Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

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HurricaneEnzo
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Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#1 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:24 am

So this decade we have seen tropical development in May 4 different years. So at the least that will be 40% of this decades seasons having May development. Maybe 50% depending on what happens this year. With oceans warming if the trend continues do you think we change the official 'season' start to May 1st or perhaps May 15th like the EPAC? I know this isn't really a big issue in the grand scheme of things just something to discuss while we gear up for the official start of the season!
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#2 Postby bg1 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:22 pm

I was thinking the same, move the start to May 15 if this continues.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#3 Postby wxman57 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:54 pm

Changing the official start date of the hurricane season is meaningless - it will have no impact on when a storms form. We've seen at least one form in January, too. The Atlantic is not warming, it is cooling, by the way. We think that the cool cycle of the AMO began in 2013. The recent convention of naming subtropical storm is one reason why we are seeing earlier "development". Also, better detection (scatterometer, high-res satellite) allows us to more easily identify tropical or subtropical storms. Should any threat development outside of the official season, it is always fully-covered with daily outlooks and advisories. No reason to change the date of the start.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#4 Postby Kazmit » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:12 pm

If you think about it, the season really starts when the first storm forms! Hurricanes don't care about specific dates. :)
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:Changing the official start date of the hurricane season is meaningless - it will have no impact on when a storms form. We've seen at least one form in January, too. The Atlantic is not warming, it is cooling, by the way. We think that the cool cycle of the AMO began in 2013. The recent convention of naming subtropical storm is one reason why we are seeing earlier "development". Also, better detection (scatterometer, high-res satellite) allows us to more easily identify tropical or subtropical storms. Should any threat development outside of the official season, it is always fully-covered with daily outlooks and advisories. No reason to change the date of the start.

The subtropical Atlantic has been significantly warmer than normal for most of the last several years and that is where most of the preseason developments have occurred. Alberto was an exception last year but most of the other May storms we've had in the last 12 years have been in the subtropics. Andrea (2007), TD1 (2009), Alberto (2012), Beryl (2012), Ana (2015), Bonnie (2016) and Arlene (2017).
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#6 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:22 pm

The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#7 Postby chaser1 » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:56 am

GeneratorPower wrote:The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.


As stated above, basing the start of Hurricane Season on the merits of relative risk is not an altogether unreasonable perspective. So with that in mind, I suggest we change the official Hurricane Season to not begin until July 1st. Wait, maybe even back it up until July 15.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#8 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:35 am

Good points everybody! Yes I realize storms can form anytime and changing the dates does not change how often they form and as I stated I know this isn't a big deal just wanted something to discuss. I don't really see how the Atlantic is cooling though at least in the regions hurricanes form. Maybe the extreme north Atlantic due to ice melt.

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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#9 Postby al78 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:47 am

Changing the start of the season may not change when the storms form, but it may enhance public awareness and incite people to get prepared earlier, thus increasing resilience.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:50 am

chaser1 wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.


As stated above, basing the start of Hurricane Season on the merits of relative risk is not an altogether unreasonable perspective. So with that in mind, I suggest we change the official Hurricane Season to not begin until July 1st. Wait, maybe even back it up until July 15.


July 15 is too late. That would exclude storms such as Audrey 57, Bertha 96, Allison 01, Dennis 05, Alex 10. I think June 1 is perfect for the Atlantic. There aren’t many May storms, the most notable recent examples being Beryl 12 and Alberto 18, but both were just TS’s. Until we start seeing threatening hurricanes on Memorial Day Weekend, I think the current season for both basins works just fine.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#11 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:25 am

I doubt NHC will move up the start of the North Atlantic Hurricane season to May any time soon. As explained earlier by a poster above, I agree if we get a hurricane on Memorial weekend or close to that time, that could get NHC to maybe consider starting on May 15 down the road. The closest we had to being a hurricane on Memorial weekend was Tropical Storm Beryl here in Jax back in 2012. Beryl made landfall at 65 mph at Jax Beach. It did reach 70 mph briefly offshore hours before landfall. Of course, I still have the satellite picture of Beryl posted in my avatar on the forum.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#12 Postby chaser1 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:10 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:The only reason for a "season" at all is to delineate the time period when storms are most likely to form, so that essential resources can be focused on a certain time period. The NHC can stop issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks and doesn't have to keep as many people on rotating shift work during the off season, presumably (I have no specific info on that). It also cues local and state government bodies of the time when they need to be most engaged, and also keeps the public aware during a specific season.

Changing the start to May 15th should be done only if the public and government resources truly need to be more engaged and ready for tropical cyclones from May 15 to June 1. Although some storms do form in late May, I would argue they aren't typically actionable storms that the public needs to care about nor resources expended on preparing for. Special TWOs can handle anything that does pop up.


As stated above, basing the start of Hurricane Season on the merits of relative risk is not an altogether unreasonable perspective. So with that in mind, I suggest we change the official Hurricane Season to not begin until July 1st. Wait, maybe even back it up until July 15.


July 15 is too late. That would exclude storms such as Audrey 57, Bertha 96, Allison 01, Dennis 05, Alex 10. I think June 1 is perfect for the Atlantic. There aren’t many May storms, the most notable recent examples being Beryl 12 and Alberto 18, but both were just TS’s. Until we start seeing threatening hurricanes on Memorial Day Weekend, I think the current season for both basins works just fine.


I understand where you're coming from with a proposed Season start date of July 15 seeming a bit late, but your example of those past 5 storms over the long span of 60 years simply makes my point that much more logical. As Generatorpower above suggested, all that you're really talking about is NHC needing to issue special TWO's for these few events out of that example 60+ year period. To be honest though, I'm playing "devil's advocate" here though. I would have easily argued against the naming of at least a few recent year early storms but if this represents an apparent upswing in early Atlantic activity, then isn't it logical to raise public awareness for the sake of even earlier preparedness? As Wxman57 stated above, the biggest change that has likely occurred over the past 10 or more years (with regard to naming of storms) can probably be attributed to better satellite, data sampling, and detection and some scientific or political change in attitude regarding the naming of subtropical systems as a whole. I agree with Wxman with regard to the more "old-school" definition of what a tropical cyclone actually is but I also understand our society's increasing demand for better/faster weather warnings where needed. We're obviously not at any point of calling blizzards, squall lines, or all meso-scale thunderstorm complexes - "subtropical cyclones" LOL but i'd say that the lines HAVE increasingly blurred over the years. So, if this blurring has resulted in broadening the definition of what a tropical (or sub-tropical) cyclone is and when they can form..... then yeah an argument WOULD suggest an earlier start of the Atlantic Season. That or, we can just go back to an earlier day when more clearly defined perimeters truly defined what a tropical cyclone really was.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#13 Postby psyclone » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:23 pm

No. If anything I chop off the ends of the current season and tend to think of hurricane season as August-October.
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:58 pm

I’d say move the hurricane season 15 days up to June 15th to November 15th
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Re: Change Atl Hurricane 'season' start to May?

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:05 pm

I say leave it the way it is.
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