Area of disturbed weather offshore the Carolinas

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6213
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Area of disturbed weather offshore the Carolinas

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:19 am

This may need to be watched the next few days as it has been persistent for 36 to 48 hrs
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7014
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#2 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:28 am

Yeah, you beat me to posting a topic on this. It definitely looks better than this time yesterday as it drifts slowly north/northwest. Definitely interesting to see if it persists.


It appears that we have a broad surface trough over The Bahamas area currently.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5932
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:19 am

Been watching this fester over The Bahamas for the last few days. Thankfully westerly shear is strong and will likely prevent any development.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1490
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#4 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:50 am

Hmmm, don't look now but it appears that a coc is forming just north of the Turks and Caicos.
I think that this it trying to drop to the surface and form a warm core.
Florida just may want to keep and eye on this although it has brought no mention at NHC.
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:54 am

From NHC TWD
A surface trough curves NE from the Windward Passage near 19N74W
to the SE Bahamas near 22N74W to NE of the Bahamas near 26N71W.
Mid to upper-level low pressure centered near 24N73W is supporting
the surface trough. The surface trough continues to provide a
low-level focus for scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection over the SE Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands from 22N to 28N between 68W and 74W. The surface trough
will linger over the Bahamas during the next couple of days while
high pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong S of 27N
through Wednesday night. Winds will also pulse to strong offshore
of Hispaniola, mainly at night through Fri night. The upper-level
low and surface trough will weaken and shift W toward the end of
this week, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside in this
region.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7014
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#6 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:56 am

OuterBanker wrote:Hmmm, don't look now but it appears that a coc is forming just north of the Turks and Caicos.
I think that this it trying to drop to the surface and form a warm core.
Florida just may want to keep and eye on this although it has brought no mention at NHC.



It's interesting you mention that in that it does look like there is rotation occurring in that vicinity of the Turks. I have noticed it too Outerbanker.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1783
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#7 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:01 pm

Local met did mention downpours to start the weekend. Could be from this very disturbance.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5861
Age: 54
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#8 Postby boca » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:35 pm

Looks like the area is slowing inching west towards Florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5451
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#9 Postby MGC » Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:55 pm

Something fun to watch, highly doubt anything comes of this disturbance, lots of outflow boundaries and strong UL winds.....MGC
2 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7014
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#10 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:04 pm

:uarrow:

Also, surface pressures in the region are still relatively high. Buoys near the Central Bahamas are indicating nothing lower than 1015 mb at this time.

Interesting feature though, just simply serving as a little teaser of potentially what is to come with the hurricane season just about a month away from the official start.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:01 pm

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3484
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#12 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:33 pm

now rain expect earlier and forecast by late wed not thur as forecast on sunday here south fl
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1193
Age: 65
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#13 Postby CourierPR » Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Great explanation from him.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1123360148955619328


Joe Bastardi said today that shear was expected to decrease.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3644
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#14 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 01, 2019 6:42 am

No development here at all expected it will probably poof as it moves near the state. Some scattered down pours expected. Just a reminder 1 month to go before season starts
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 01, 2019 8:39 am

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1123581922368741381




Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Little
development is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance
turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next
couple of days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

smithtim
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 97
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:43 pm

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#16 Postby smithtim » Wed May 01, 2019 9:09 am

OK, now NHC it def gotta keep an eye on it! gotta remember that area it is passing through is a very interesting area for quick development which always makes me nervioso, I think we all remember and olde man named Andrew! Of course don't expect anything like that, but would not be suprised to see some growth leading to Miami maybe seeing sustained winds 30+ and some strong tropical downpours on Thursday. Lucky me as I'm actually driving down to Miami today after work, yeah fun! I geuss this is welcome to 2019 season ; )
0 likes   
Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5030
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Plantation/Sunrise, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#17 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed May 01, 2019 9:31 am

Happy pre-season everybody. Looking forward to some relaxing tropical weather over the next couple of days.
1 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1208
Age: 16
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#18 Postby weathaguyry » Wed May 01, 2019 10:29 am

Current a lot of shear out there, but it should be interesting as it moves up off of the SE coast. A nice little early season surprise to start off May 8-)

Image
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12'

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1783
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#19 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed May 01, 2019 11:22 am

Time to return to the tropics, it’s been so long :)
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3644
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#20 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 01, 2019 11:57 am

0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CyclonicFury, HurricaneFan, HurricaneMaster_PR, Macrocane, pepecool20, Siker, South Texas Storms and 58 guests