Area of disturbed weather offshore the Carolinas

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2771
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#21 Postby KatDaddy » Wed May 01, 2019 12:50 pm

Pre-Season fun and games. A great reminder that the 2019 Hurricane Season is a month away. I will be hoping the NW GOM remains quiet this season but something is telling me we may have a tropical threat along the Upper TX Coast. Its just a feeling thus we shall see.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3481
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#22 Postby Nimbus » Wed May 01, 2019 5:01 pm

This area has some convection and at least temporary inflow, I wonder if it will make it to invest?
It will only have about 48 hours before Florida but once its reaches the gulf stream again perhaps it could become a named storm?
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6745
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#23 Postby northjaxpro » Wed May 01, 2019 5:12 pm

It definitely is becoming more intriguing by the hour. Shear is still hindering the system, but it is still holding on tenaniously currently. We have seen quickly developing tropical cyclones in this region in the past of course. If convection continues to build the next 12-24 hours as the system nears the Gulf Stream, I'd say this stands a decent shot to potentially develop into a TD or even a named cyclone by Friday evening at the earliest.

Interesting pre-season feature for sure.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5712
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#24 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 02, 2019 8:23 am

This disturbance is a complete disorganized mess, still serves as a good alert via the NHC TWO to remind those that hurricane season is just under a month away!
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 325
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#25 Postby StruThiO » Thu May 02, 2019 8:53 am

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
950 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure that extends from South Florida
northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development of this system while it moves northwestward,
and then northward over the Florida peninsula and near the southeast
United States coast during the next day or so. This system is
forecast to merge with a frontal system later this weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula during the next
day or so. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 10 AM EDT Friday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Last edited by StruThiO on Fri May 03, 2019 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115432
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Area of disturbed weather offshore the Florida east coast

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 02, 2019 6:09 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 756
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Miami, Fla.
Contact:

Re: Area of disturbed weather offshore the east Florida coast

#27 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu May 02, 2019 8:57 pm

Evening everyone,

a little wind and rain, but a reminder that we are fast nearing Hurricane season.
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 325
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: Area of disturbed weather offshore NE Florida

#28 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 03, 2019 9:44 am

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
940 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough and broad area of low pressure over northeastern
Florida is producing a large area disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the far western Atlantic waters. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves northeastward along the
southeast coast of the United States through Saturday. Later this
weekend, the system is expected to merge with a frontal system off
the east coast of the United States. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over eastern portions of the
Florida peninsula and along the southeast United States coast during
the next day or so. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will
be issued by 10 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 325
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: Area of disturbed weather offshore NE Florida

#29 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 03, 2019 9:46 am

0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5712
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather offshore NE Florida

#30 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 03, 2019 10:08 am

:uarrow: Impressive for something only given a 10% chance of development! Wonder if it has any surprises up it’s sleeve?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 674
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Area of disturbed weather offshore NE Florida

#31 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri May 03, 2019 11:09 am

It does look better but most likely this will just be a rainmaker for areas along the Southeastern US coast. Don't see Andrea forming from it.
2 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10084
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: Area of disturbed weather offshore the Carolinas

#32 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 04, 2019 12:48 am

It's possible that this system is directly or indirectly played a role for that 737 plane that just ended up in a rivier
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat May 04, 2019 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6745
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas

#33 Postby northjaxpro » Sat May 04, 2019 4:23 am

Kingarabian wrote:It's possible that this system is directly or indirectly for that 737 plane that just ended up in a rivier



It ended up in the Saint Johns River at the end of a runway at Jacksonville Naval Air Station. A military plane slid off the runway after landing during a heavy thunderstorm.

I happened to be monitoring that line of storms, which rapidly developed from 9:00 p.m. - 10 p.m. last night.

NTSB will be at Jax NAS investigating this incident this weekend.

My theory is that it is very possible that a sudden microbust, which was wind shear induced, of course, from a severe cell may have pushed that plane off the edge of that runway into the river. The runways and landing strips at Jax NAS lay west to east, right along the western bank of the river.

Thunderstorm downbursts are extremely dangerous, especially for aircraft. There have been numerous instances recorded and investigated in which these bursts have caused plane accidents and fatal plane crashes.

The most notable event was the terrible Pan American Boeing 727 crash in Kenner, Louisiana in 1982 , which killed all 138 passagers on board, and 7 people on the ground. It was a wind shear micro downburst, which essentially slammed that plane to the ground, which brought about this awful tragedy.

Fortunately, and thank God, the water along the Saint Johns River at the edge of the runway is shallow. The plane did not get into the deeper, murkier waters and avoided the extreme strong river current, or else we would be talking about an event similar to what happened in Kenner.

This is an absolute miracle from God that all 143 passengers on board survived this last night!!!
2 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BobHarlem, crownweather, TexasBreeze, TheStormExpert and 22 guests