Mark Sudduth El Nino update

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stormlover2013
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Mark Sudduth El Nino update

#1 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed May 15, 2019 11:13 am

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GeneratorPower
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Re: Mark Sudduth El Nino update

#2 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 15, 2019 2:16 pm

Mark has great info. I think he's one of the few people speaking sensibly about ENSO. Great video.
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Re: Mark Sudduth El Nino update

#3 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 15, 2019 3:20 pm

I agree with Mark, to the extent that I don't necessarily believe that a "full-on" ENSO condition will have a clear cut typical impact to Atlantic development this season. On the other hand, I also was under the impression that this past Fall and Winter were also only "warm neutral" (and beneath ENSO threshold). The reason I bring that up is because I recall during much of that time period there was a split flow often in place. Even when the overall long wave pattern would have seemed to favor potentially damaging cold conditions well south and into Florida, much of the state was broadly protected by a low latitude mid level jet Until greater evidence suggest a more meridianal flow and a decreased and more relaxed mid to upper level flow across the breadth of the MDR, then I still have to believe that "El Nino like" conditions will at least impact broad areas of typically lower latitude development, and perhaps in relationship to this.... also result in some possibly weaker end tropical systems. At the same time, it's not unreasonable that a trend toward more ENSO neutral flow might well eventually cause a more favorable environment throughout the MDR but even here I would expect at least a several week delay for subsiding upper level Westerly flow to slowly evolve into a more favorable MDR pattern. I'm still leaning toward an underwhelming first 3 months of the season (relative to the normal underwhelming first 3 months of typical Atlantic seasons LOL), with cyclogenesis primarily occurring north of 25N. I'm not at all convinced yet that the second half of the season will look entirely different, other then the typically more frequent and potentially stronger storms that commonly form in Aug. and September. Given the current pattern though, it's anyone's guess what steering pattern will be in place then however. If you think about it though, isn't THAT what really should be the most important and pressing question about the upcoming season?? Because in the end, what really matters has more to do with those upper level conditions & what steering conditions are in place should we be dealing with the potential of higher latitude Westward moving developing tropical systems, perhaps east or north of the Bahamas sometime later in the season.
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