Area SW of Bermuda (INVEST 90L is up)

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week.
Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[floridasun78]

going out to open sea bermuda may need watch it

[TheStormExpert]

30% seems kind of high considering no model does anything really with it, except the Euro Ensembles.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1129367360157245440

[CyclonicFury]

Could be a short-lived, weak subtropical/tropical cyclone southwest of Bermuda in about 4-5 days. Bermuda may have to watch it, but I don't see this posing a threat to the US.

[floridasun78]

Could be a short-lived, weak subtropical/tropical cyclone southwest of Bermuda in about 4-5 days. Bermuda may have to watch it, but I don't see this posing a threat to the US.

our area too watch is sw carribean not that area if something going affect usa

[crownweather]

TBH, I was quite surprised to see this tagged at 30%. Guidance as a whole isn't really enthused about it developing into anything more than a weak low pressure system. Also, if anything were to form, it would be quickly overtaken by that frontal boundary pushing into the western Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday.

[TheStormExpert]

Only a few Euro Ensembles as of the 00z run develop this into a short-lived Depression or weak TS at best. Are the NHC seeing something that we aren’t seeing?

[crownweather]

Only a few Euro Ensembles as of the 00z run develop this into a short-lived Depression or weak TS at best. Are the NHC seeing something that we aren’t seeing?

http://i64.tinypic.com/293ygwh.png

Honestly, I don't know what they're looking at. When I posted my own tropical weather update this morning, I didn't even mention this feature because I think it's a nothingburger. It may become a weak low pressure system before a front diminishes its chances for development.

[Kazmit]

I noticed this popping up the last few runs of the GFS and Euro- looks like I'll need to keep an eye on it. I don't think it'll get strong enough to be much of a worry for us though. 30% also seems a bit high at the moment.

[TheStormExpert]

Not a single Euro Ensemble develops as of 12z.

[Kazmit]

Up to 40%. Didn't expect that.

[chaser1]

Well if a legit T.S. forms here, i'd call NHC's 40% chance of development one hell of a forecast! Even if one wanted to "wish-cast" an early sub-tropical storm, I just cannot see a reasonable enough argument to suggest one will form here. At best, there may be a weak surface to 850 mb circulation east of Florida and just north of the N. Bahamas. According to the GFS, a TUTT-like piece of 500mb vorticity from a couple hundred miles to the ESE is supposed to move west and merge with this weak surface to 850mb low in about 48-60 hr.'s, enhanced by the high pressure gradient to it's north. Anything that'll even look like it's trying to coalesce will be shallow, extremely lopsided, and pretty short-lived. Just my opinion but it seems to me that NHC's line between Sub-tropical storm and Maritime Gale has become increasingly fuzzy over the years. Who know's though, maybe they're seeing something that models are not.

[cycloneye]

Not a bright future.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1129866280977293312

[CyclonicFury]

10/40

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190502
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a region of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
during the next couple of days. This system could gradually develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves northward or
northeastward through Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the
week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
2 PM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[GCANE]

Hard to see anything coming out of this.
Currently, tons of shear.
A LL vort developing but will entangle with an ULL.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep, 50kts of southwesterly shear is kicking its butt!

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90L is up