Southwest Caribbean Sea

[boca]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

It looks like something is trying to get going off Panama/Costa Rica area.

[wxman57]

Models had been indicating lowering surface pressures down there and across Central America into the East Pac since about 10 days ago. It's normal for this time of year. Not much model support for any development, but it's a prime location to watch for this time of year. No evidence of anything but a cluster of squalls. Obs don't indicate any LLC. However, no scatterometer has hit the area in the past 24 hours.

[stormlover2013]

WXman when do we get the stormgeo hurricane forecast

[wxman57]

WXman when do we get the stormgeo hurricane forecast

Best place to look for any group's predictions would be: http://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/predictions

StormGeo's May forecast is for 14/6/2 (post-Andrea).

[SFLcane]

WXman when do we get the stormgeo hurricane forecast

Best place to look for any group's predictions would be: http://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/predictions

StormGeo's May forecast is for 14/6/2 (post-Andrea).

Hey wxman57! 14/6/2 on the low side el nino is on steady weakening face. Have you seen the latest CFS?

[NDG]

Been watching this area since yesterday, big monsoonal type trough with lots of vortices above the surface rotating or meandering around the C.A. area.
Also, kind of unusual wet pattern during May for the C.A. area during an El Nino.

[AutoPenalti]

Wasn’t the MJO forecast to be in that area?

[Aric Dunn]

It definitely need to be watched. Anytime there is a large gyre from the monson trough extending into sw carrib. There is some curvature to the low level inflow. If the convection can sustain long enough then we may see something in a few days start to try and develop.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS and the FV3-GFS have this either attempting to develop or developing in the extreme NW Caribbean or southern Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula in about 10 days.

[Aric Dunn]

The GFS and the FV3-GFS have this either attempting to develop or developing in the extreme NW Caribbean or southern Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula in about 10 days.

All the models have had something.. enough to pay attention to.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1131254075171807232

[northjaxpro]

Typical monsoonal gyre. These will sit and fester for days upon days. As mentioned, if the disturbed area festers down in the region for awhile, it may attempt to develop within the next week or so.

[wxman57]

Hey wxman57! 14/6/2 on the low side el nino is on steady weakening face. Have you seen the latest CFS?

El Nino (or not) is only one factor to consider. We have a quite cool AMO at present, stronger Bermuda high predicted this year, hostile MDR, and analog years suggest 10 named storms and 50% normal ACE (and those analogs take into account very weak El Nino (0.5 to 0.6C anomaly)). No real positive factors for an active season, unless you count the NHC's propensity to name crappy nothing storms like Andrea.

[Nimbus]

Wonder if this system just looks favorable due to a diurnal max for convection?
Models aren't showing anything in the area for days?

[SFLcane]

Hey wxman57! 14/6/2 on the low side el nino is on steady weakening face. Have you seen the latest CFS?

El Nino (or not) is only one factor to consider. We have a quite cool AMO at present, stronger Bermuda high predicted this year, hostile MDR, and analog years suggest 10 named storms and 50% normal ACE (and those analogs take into account very weak El Nino (0.5 to 0.6C anomaly)). No real positive factors for an active season, unless you count the NHC's propensity to name crappy nothing storms like Andrea.

Not sure I agree with you there on a hostile Atlantic I have seen just about the opposite especially from the CFSV2 lately. The El Niño if any so weak should not be detrimental come ASO but we shall see. The main development region is also warmer then it was last season at this time. My numbers are 14-15 named storms 7 hurricanes and 3 majors.

[ronjon]

18z FV3 goes bananas with 958 mb hurricane off SW FL.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019052218&fh=384

[Aric Dunn]

All the models are showing more western carrib potential than eastern for 00z runs. Right around the 30th. Fv3 is rather interesting solution

[SFLcane]

All the models are showing more western carrib potential than eastern for 00z runs. Right around the 30th. Fv3 is rather interesting solution

Indeed! Though not a lot of signal from the EC as of yet. FV3 06z still has a hurricane into SW FL. Pattern does support something but we'll see.

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro buries it into CA or Mexico with no development.

[Florida1118]

The Euro buries it into CA or Mexico with no development.

That's false. It begins to form something in the BOC.