Southwest Caribbean Sea

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SFLcane
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Re: Southwest Caribbean Sea

#21 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 23, 2019 7:33 am

Few 06z long range runs this morning..

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Re: Southwest Caribbean Sea

#22 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu May 23, 2019 7:51 am

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Ridge is quite strong for this time of year. It's more than 2 weeks out but still.
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Re: Southwest Caribbean Sea

#23 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu May 23, 2019 8:49 am

Circulation clearly visible east of the mountains near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras. Much closer to the Caribbean side. Looks stationary.

Needs to be watched even more now that the vorticity with the monsoon gyre is focused more on the eastern lobe. Models may pick up on this in later runs once the analysis is inputted.
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Re: Southwest Caribbean Sea

#24 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 23, 2019 11:11 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Circulation clearly visible east of the mountains near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras. Much closer to the Caribbean side. Looks stationary.

Needs to be watched even more now that the vorticity with the monsoon gyre is focused more on the eastern lobe. Models may pick up on this in later runs once the analysis is inputted.


Associated convection over the W. Caribbean seems to be waning however.
Last edited by chaser1 on Thu May 23, 2019 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Southwest Caribbean Sea

#25 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 23, 2019 11:13 am

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Circulation clearly visible east of the mountains near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras. Much closer to the Caribbean side. Looks stationary.

Needs to be watched even more now that the vorticity with the monsoon gyre is focused more on the eastern lobe. Models may pick up on this in later runs once the analysis is inputted.


Yep, perhaps around 14N & 85W +/- ? 'Course, it's broad, shallow and I'm not sure I'm seeing any actual west inflow near the surface quite yet. Then again..... it's a Gyro (tropical gyre... extra Tzatziki Sauce please!). Still, the 200mb upper pita winds don't look like they're relaxing any time soon. I'd still bet that environmental conditions on the Pacific side might be more conducive for initially plating this tropical dish; With the possibility next week of seeing this energy propagate back to the north/northeast and then perhaps see a tropical lunch begin to take shape in the far W. Caribbean or Yuca-fry's region at that time (as the latest 12Z GFS is now indicating at 108 hr's). I think i'm gonna step away from the tropics and check out the fridge now :37:
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Re: Southwest Caribbean Sea

#26 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu May 23, 2019 12:29 pm

CAGs are weird and take forever for any real tropical development to happen. My advice, grab a beer and chill out.
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Re: Southwest Caribbean Sea

#27 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 24, 2019 7:10 am

Not much here anymore clearly developing on epac side no model support.
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