2019 CPAC Season

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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:46 pm

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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#22 Postby Astromanía » Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:32 pm

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Hawaii must watch this potential long tracker cyclone supported by GFS and ECMWF
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#23 Postby Chris90 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:59 pm

:uarrow: There's another indicator for how favorable the CPAC is this year, when it's only June but a model is forecasting a 979mb hurricane to exit the CPAC and a 977mb hurricane to enter. Granted, that forecast is long range and for the middle of July.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:39 am

3 people hit by lightening tonight. Looks like a low pressure system moving over the islands has been aided by all that warm water and in turn has flooded some parts of Oahu. First time witnessing something like this since Darby 2016.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#25 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:3 people hit by lightening tonight. Looks like a low pressure system moving over the islands has been aided by all that warm water and in turn has flooded some parts of Oahu. First time witnessing something like this since Darby 2016.


Record rainfall of 4.2 inches, meanwhile, was recorded in Honolulu on Tuesday, breaking the old record of 0.14 inches set in 1994. Additionally, the NWS said this marks the wettest June day on record in Honolulu.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#26 Postby Chris90 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:54 pm

:uarrow: I guess some of those model forecasts for above average rainfall in Hawaii and the CPAC are already starting to verify.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#27 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:07 am

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Euro has Akoni in about 72 hours.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#28 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:10 pm

Support for the Euro solutions with the German ICON model also showing double trouble.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#29 Postby TorSkk » Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:05 pm

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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#30 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:50 pm

ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Jul 19 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Big Island. Environmental conditions are
mildly conducive for development over the next few days. After
which, conditions will be less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster EATON
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#31 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:30 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Jul 19 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Big Island. Environmental conditions are
mildly conducive for development over the next few days. After
which, conditions will be less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster EATON


If we get these type of disturbances in late August through October, it's going to be worrying.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#32 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 20, 2019 6:05 pm

Looks classifiable:
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#33 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:50 am

Madeline and Lester 2.0?

Image
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#34 Postby Tailspin » Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:40 am

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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#35 Postby Astromanía » Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:32 am

Kingarabian wrote:Madeline and Lester 2.0?

https://i.imgur.com/Z0joa2m.gif


That is what I'm thinking, but will those systems reach category four as Madeline and Lester did?
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#36 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:49 pm

Train of systems. Hopefully they continue to remain weak like this:
Image
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#37 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:16 am

Looks like guidance is beginning to pick up on a disturbance becoming particularly defined around 00Z August 10th SW of Hawaii. In the long range, it looks like it's possible for the disturbance to develop, cross into the WPac and become intense.

Image

Looks like it stems from the weak disturbance in the ITCZ currently SE of Hawaii around 8ºN, 145ºW.

Image

Image
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#38 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:36 am

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred
miles southwest of Hawaii over the next few days. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for slow
development of the system through the week as it moves west to
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:14 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like guidance is beginning to pick up on a disturbance becoming particularly defined around 00Z August 10th SW of Hawaii. In the long range, it looks like it's possible for the disturbance to develop, cross into the WPac and become intense.

https://i.imgur.com/NkXHMZW.gif

Looks like it stems from the weak disturbance in the ITCZ currently SE of Hawaii around 8ºN, 145ºW.

https://i.imgur.com/5RZYXkN.gif

https://i.imgur.com/zcNTR2J.gif

This disturbance, now SW of Hawaii, has been tagged as Invest 90C.

Image
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season

#40 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:36 pm

Gonna post these to avoid cluttering the EPAC thread since the EPAC is forecast to be pretty active in the next few weeks by some of the models.

We might see Ema and Hone from these two disturbances:
Image

Currently, models keep both systems away from Hawaii or too weak (in some cases). But there are model scenarios where one of these systems end up re-curving close to Hawaii. For this to happen, it depends on the disturbance near 135W developing.
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