2019 CPAC Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
Hawaii must watch this potential long tracker cyclone supported by GFS and ECMWF
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
There's another indicator for how favorable the CPAC is this year, when it's only June but a model is forecasting a 979mb hurricane to exit the CPAC and a 977mb hurricane to enter. Granted, that forecast is long range and for the middle of July.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
3 people hit by lightening tonight. Looks like a low pressure system moving over the islands has been aided by all that warm water and in turn has flooded some parts of Oahu. First time witnessing something like this since Darby 2016.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:3 people hit by lightening tonight. Looks like a low pressure system moving over the islands has been aided by all that warm water and in turn has flooded some parts of Oahu. First time witnessing something like this since Darby 2016.
Record rainfall of 4.2 inches, meanwhile, was recorded in Honolulu on Tuesday, breaking the old record of 0.14 inches set in 1994. Additionally, the NWS said this marks the wettest June day on record in Honolulu.
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
I guess some of those model forecasts for above average rainfall in Hawaii and the CPAC are already starting to verify.
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
Support for the Euro solutions with the German ICON model also showing double trouble.
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- Nancy Smar
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Jul 19 2019
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Big Island. Environmental conditions are
mildly conducive for development over the next few days. After
which, conditions will be less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.
$$
Forecaster EATON
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Jul 19 2019
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Big Island. Environmental conditions are
mildly conducive for development over the next few days. After
which, conditions will be less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.
$$
Forecaster EATON
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
Nancy Smar wrote:ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Jul 19 2019
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Big Island. Environmental conditions are
mildly conducive for development over the next few days. After
which, conditions will be less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.
$$
Forecaster EATON
If we get these type of disturbances in late August through October, it's going to be worrying.
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
That is what I'm thinking, but will those systems reach category four as Madeline and Lester did?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
Train of systems. Hopefully they continue to remain weak like this:
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
Looks like guidance is beginning to pick up on a disturbance becoming particularly defined around 00Z August 10th SW of Hawaii. In the long range, it looks like it's possible for the disturbance to develop, cross into the WPac and become intense.
Looks like it stems from the weak disturbance in the ITCZ currently SE of Hawaii around 8ºN, 145ºW.
Looks like it stems from the weak disturbance in the ITCZ currently SE of Hawaii around 8ºN, 145ºW.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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- Nancy Smar
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred
miles southwest of Hawaii over the next few days. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for slow
development of the system through the week as it moves west to
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
miles southwest of Hawaii over the next few days. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for slow
development of the system through the week as it moves west to
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
1900hurricane wrote:Looks like guidance is beginning to pick up on a disturbance becoming particularly defined around 00Z August 10th SW of Hawaii. In the long range, it looks like it's possible for the disturbance to develop, cross into the WPac and become intense.
https://i.imgur.com/NkXHMZW.gif
Looks like it stems from the weak disturbance in the ITCZ currently SE of Hawaii around 8ºN, 145ºW.
https://i.imgur.com/5RZYXkN.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zcNTR2J.gif
This disturbance, now SW of Hawaii, has been tagged as Invest 90C.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 CPAC Season
Gonna post these to avoid cluttering the EPAC thread since the EPAC is forecast to be pretty active in the next few weeks by some of the models.
We might see Ema and Hone from these two disturbances:
Currently, models keep both systems away from Hawaii or too weak (in some cases). But there are model scenarios where one of these systems end up re-curving close to Hawaii. For this to happen, it depends on the disturbance near 135W developing.
We might see Ema and Hone from these two disturbances:
Currently, models keep both systems away from Hawaii or too weak (in some cases). But there are model scenarios where one of these systems end up re-curving close to Hawaii. For this to happen, it depends on the disturbance near 135W developing.
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