When will Barry form?

[chaser1]

i got feeling we wont see barry into july the way tropical have been past few weeks shears

I think you could be right.

When will Barry form? When the upper level westerlies decide to subside (that or, when some mid-level disturbance somehow makes it's way north of 25N latitude.

Agree! Also, you can add the SAL factor as well. We in all likelihood won't be seeing anything coming across the Tropical Atlantic , at least for the next few weeks, given the current dust plumes showing now.

Dead right! On top of everything else, conditions go into the crapper that much more when Uncle Sal makes his apperance.

We may well have to wait till some healthy low latitude system pushes off the African coast around July 30-Aug. 5, to finally see Barry. Even then, will it immediately run into harsh upper level westerlies? We'll have to wait and see.

[floridasun78]

if look at carribbean you see wave coming in now getting beat up by shear and SALthat moving by Caribbean and FL now will take time too get thing going those area only maybe if system form by east coast may have chance

[Nimbus]

if look at carribbean you see wave coming in now getting beat up by shear and SALthat moving by Caribbean and FL now will take time too get thing going those area only maybe if system form by east coast may have chance

Could be a quiet year, 2017 the ACE went over 200 but there is usually a decade or more between those busy years.
2004-2005 both years ACE went over 200, of course Andrew was the first storm in 1992 so ACE doesn't have as much bearing for Florida. Irma broke a lot of shingle glue joints and loosened flashing in Florida so the next storm could be expensive..

[wxman57]

I'm still thinking August & beyond for Barry. May have a shot in the Gulf in a few weeks, though. That might be the place to watch for Barry.

[Shell Mound]

As of today (6 July 2019), only the last three—probably last two—options are left in the running...

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm still thinking August & beyond for Barry. May have a shot in the Gulf in a few weeks, though. That might be the place to watch for Barry.

Well, you called this one.

Liking my vote of July 11-20 as well.

[TorSkk]

Voted July 11-20. Might have been close if Barry had organized more quickly.

[cycloneye]

I didn't vote for 11-20.