Broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula (Is INVEST 91L)

[CyclonicFury]

STWO issued, 20/30. Low chance of development if it remains over water in the BoC.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311820
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward
over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through early next week as
long as it remains over water. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern Mexico during the next few days. Regular issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the
beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

[NDG]

I'll say chances of development are pretty good for this time of the year as long as it stays offshore after it moves into the BOC.
UL shear is fairly conducive for development.
And as always, most models always have a hard time with disturbances that move into the BOC.

[CyclonicFury]

I'll say chances of development are pretty good for this time of the year as long as it stays offshore after it moves into the BOC.
UL shear is fairly conducive for development.
And as always, most models always have a hard time with disturbances that move into the BOC.

I'd agree. We've seen a lot of disturbances develop quickly in the BoC if conditions are favorable. We could see something like Bret (2005), Fernand (2013) or Danielle (2016) if this system makes it over water. The curvature of the coastline often allows disturbances to develop closed lows quickly.

[StruThiO]

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 0-240.html



Euro ensembles

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro is interesting:

[stormlover2013]

12z euro ensembles

Euro ensembles very interesting 12z

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[TheStormExpert]

Most Euro Ensembles take this to a TS, with the vast majority of them hugging the Western Gulf coastline.

[SoupBone]

Hmmm, why is this one not getting more attention? If it hugs the coast line, it has time to develop into something.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm, why is this one not getting more attention? If it hugs the coast line, it has time to develop into something.

No models really develop this except the Euro and it’s Ensembles.

[lrak]

Seems in past years the EPAC was much more active than this year? So will that latent energy transfer to develop something close like the S BOC? Wishcasting surf The last visible satellite images are amazing.

[tailgater]

Hmmm, why is this one not getting more attention? If it hugs the coast line, it has time to develop into something.

No models really develop this except the Euro and it’s Ensembles.

The crazy uncle develops it and navy model hints at the moisture moving up the Texas coast.
I haven’t checked the even more unreliable models yet.

[La Breeze]

Local mets are suggesting the possibility of this system developing slightly, but being a "rainmaker" along the Texas coast and into Louisiana by Friday. Any comments??

[cycloneye]

INVEST 91L is up