Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[ColdMiser123]

This is a remarkable shift at 700 hPa over just four runs.

[chaser1]

102 hr. 0Z GFS has a weak(er) 1006mb depression a little further west just south of Louisiana.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is going to take this west of Houston.

[stormlover2013]

Lol man o man the gfs lol

[TheAustinMan]

The 00z UKMET had a hurricane of at least 981 mb developing southeast of the Mississippi Delta inching northwards into Mobile.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N 88.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 96 28.1N 87.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 12.07.2019 108 28.8N 88.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 13.07.2019 120 29.1N 88.5W 995 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 132 29.6N 88.6W 986 64
0000UTC 14.07.2019 144 30.8N 88.2W 981 54

[SoupBone]

GFS is going to take this west of Houston.

What in the world would support this? The high over the Texas coast breaking down?

[chaser1]

GFS is going to take this into Houston.

At that point, it wouldnt shock me. Interesting to note, just as a developing ITCZ disturbance begins to consolodate (wrap up), as it is finally able to pull itself out of the broader trough.... so too might this disturbance do the same thing once separating from the long north/south trough from east of Hudson Bay that it appears anchored to up to about 102 hr.'s

[ColdMiser123]

Strongest UK run yet, and further west from 12z.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is going to take this west of Houston.

What in the world would support this? The high over the Texas coast breaking down?

Looks like it misses the trough connection completely this run, so steering is just due west. A system that weak would also be impacted by the lower level steering winds more compared to the mid level steering winds.

I have doubts that a track through the western Gulf would support a system that weak like the GFS shows.

[chaser1]

The 00z UKMET had a hurricane of at least 981 mb developing southeast of the Mississippi Delta inching northwards into Mobile.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N 88.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 96 28.1N 87.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 12.07.2019 108 28.8N 88.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 13.07.2019 120 29.1N 88.5W 995 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 132 29.6N 88.6W 986 64
0000UTC 14.07.2019 144 30.8N 88.2W 981 54

I've always like the UK, but 981 LOL? I think it's been watching too much Tropical Weather stuff

[CrazyC83]

GFS is going to take this west of Houston.

What in the world would support this? The high over the Texas coast breaking down?

If the ridge pushed farther north and east, it would force the low westward.

[MississippiWx]

The GFS solution is possible if the system remains weak. The trough to the north bypasses it and the weaker system is caught by the high over the Southern Plains. Looks like the strength of the system may dictate where it goes. This is not to say that it couldn't gain strength before moving into Texas once it is under the influence of the previously-mentioned ridge.

[CrazyC83]

The GFS solution is possible if the system remains weak. The trough to the north bypasses it and the weaker system is caught by the high over the Southern Plains. Looks like the strength of the system may dictate where it goes.

If the GFS is right, even a stronger storm wouldn't be able to turn northward. The ridging over the southern US looks to be strengthening if anything, and the trough looks to be faster to move out.

[ColdMiser123]

Decent shift west on the 0z CMC and stronger than 12z. Track will be pretty similar to the new UKMET.

[LeonardRay]

Looks like 0z icon takes a hurricane into se la

[SoupBone]

The GFS solution is possible if the system remains weak. The trough to the north bypasses it and the weaker system is caught by the high over the Southern Plains. Looks like the strength of the system may dictate where it goes.

If the GFS is right, even a stronger storm wouldn't be able to turn northward. The ridging over the southern US looks to be strengthening if anything, and the trough looks to be faster to move out.

So what are your current thoughts on track?

[stormlover2013]

Gfs, ukmet, cmc has all made a huge shift west, looks like models getting a grasp on the upper level pattern, slowly but surely, corpus to Florida panhandle is in play

[CrazyC83]

The GFS solution is possible if the system remains weak. The trough to the north bypasses it and the weaker system is caught by the high over the Southern Plains. Looks like the strength of the system may dictate where it goes.

If the GFS is right, even a stronger storm wouldn't be able to turn northward. The ridging over the southern US looks to be strengthening if anything, and the trough looks to be faster to move out.

So what are your current thoughts on track?

Too soon to make any clear predictions. However, it is trending west.

[CrazyC83]

Gfs, ukmet, cmc has all made a huge shift west, looks like models getting a grasp on the upper level pattern, slowly but surely, corpus to Florida panhandle is in play

More like Veracruz to Florida Panhandle.

[ColdMiser123]

By 96 hours, every single 0z GEFS member is now west of the Florida Panhandle.



By 132 hours, most members are moving into Texas.