Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[LeonardRay]

so at 5 days out and no center developed yet....I'm sure the trends will continue to swing back and forth. However there is starting to be a consensus with most of the models.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET operational:

[Haris]

70% chance on 2am update NHC now.

[ColdMiser123]

2 am TWO up to 70%:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a
couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the
low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For
more information about the rainfall threat, please see products
issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[TheProfessor]

The Ukie really ramps the storm up over an 18-24 hour period before landfall, might be the first signs of an attempted RI on the models and something that should be watched in the case of a storm forming and moving over those very warm waters with good atmospheric conditions.

[LeonardRay]

The Ukie really ramps the storm up over an 18-24 hour period before landfall, might be the first signs of an attempted RI on the models and something that should be watched in the case of a storm forming and moving over those very warm waters with good atmospheric conditions.

what location is it targeting? How strong?

[ColdMiser123]

More ridging NE of the disturbance so far through 66 hours compared to 12z on the Euro.

[chaser1]

I'm looking at every satellite channel trying to find any remote point of mid level turning but all that I'm seeing is an increasingly sharp ENE/WSW trough slipping slowly southward. Gonna have to check some more land bouy reports to find this thing lol

[ColdMiser123]

A decent tick southwest of 12z so far.

[LeonardRay]

curving towards upper texas coast at 120 hours

[Haris]

Wow. this is getting interesting... 0z euro heading towards Texas it appears

[LeonardRay]

Wow. this is getting interesting... 0z euro heading towards Texas it appears

heading towards Texas and deepening

[TheProfessor]

The Ukie really ramps the storm up over an 18-24 hour period before landfall, might be the first signs of an attempted RI on the models and something that should be watched in the case of a storm forming and moving over those very warm waters with good atmospheric conditions.

what location is it targeting? How strong?

The 0z Ukie made landfall right around the Mississippi and Alabama border and probably somewhere close to a pressure of 980-984 mb, I do believe the text output said 981 mb right around landfall, but landfall happens between frames this run. That's just one model run and one model however. The overall trend has been westward tonight so that's what we should be looking at right now.

[TheProfessor]

Man if this thing really heads for western La or the Texas coast it's going to get a lot of time over very warm waters.

[LeonardRay]

came onshore near galveston at what appears to be cat 1 or 2 at 144 hours

[USTropics]

987mb on the low-res ECMWF, landfall very near the LA/TX border:

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1148120659538653184

[USTropics]

Quite impressive consolidation of vorticity at 850mb levels the past 24 hours, see CIMSS loop below:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro run: 984mb landfall just west of the TX/LA border, maximum 10M winds were 50kts, 850mb winds (gusts?) were 85kts. I don't know why there's such a huge disparity between near surface winds and 850mb winds.

00z Euro low resolution run, hours 72-168:

[GCANE]

Looking at CIMSS, 850mb and 700mb vorts are nicely stacked and appear to be moving direclty south along the AL / GA border.
Good chance it'll exit into the water in the middle of the panhandle.
An UL PV anomaly is just to the west but appears to be dissipating.
Shear is basically non existant due to the entrenched anticyclone.
This looks like it may ramp up quickly since the NE GOM has very extreme CAPE air over it.