Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[USTropics]

Evident spin on MIMIC-TPW2:



src: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=700-850&prod=namer&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

[Aric Dunn]

Morning data is showing a higher chance of convection over central and eastern Alabama. This is in association with the trough/vorticity. Deep tstorms developing on the the sw side of this vorticity will likely pull it even further to the south and i bet a complex from that reaches the gulf this evening..

[chaser1]

Ominous sky and low clouds in tampa

Cigar smoke from Ybor City perhaps

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Ominous sky and low clouds in tampa

Cigar smoke from Ybor City perhaps

https://imgur.com/a/qG8GnVm

[NDG]

Euro ensembles, 22 of them towards LA, 13 of them towards TX.
But a majority of the members that show a TX landfall has it as a hurricane.
Close to 20 members show it becoming at least a Hurricane with 4 of them a Cat 2.

[cycloneye]

The odds of having the invest up are rising fast and I would not be surprised if they tag later today as the earliest or on Tuesday as the latest. I put them at 60% for Monday and 100% for Tuesday.

[SoupBone]

The odds of having the invest up are rising fast and I would not be surprised if they tag later today as the earliest or on Tuesday as the latest. I put them at 60% for Monday and 100% for Tuesday.

Honestly not sure why it isn't tagged already.

[ronjon]

The odds of having the invest up are rising fast and I would not be surprised if they tag later today as the earliest or on Tuesday as the latest. I put them at 60% for Monday and 100% for Tuesday.

Honestly not sure why it isn't tagged already.

Probably waiting for the circulation to get over water which should be by tomorrow am.

[Aric Dunn]

The odds of having the invest up are rising fast and I would not be surprised if they tag later today as the earliest or on Tuesday as the latest. I put them at 60% for Monday and 100% for Tuesday.

Honestly not sure why it isn't tagged already.

I mean we have had plenty of things over land tagged as invests. I think it could be as it is a distinct enough of a feature to warrant an invest. They could just be waiting to see how it Plays out with its structure today. If it stays symmetrical by end of day then the interaction with the trough to east is not occurring and is not going to elongate or split like previous GFS runs.

[Steve]

Weatherbell video this am says hurricane into around Golden Triangle area. They said they’d show their track later today but are “bullish”

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1147976254672580609



 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1147977240015233026



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1148201671014543360

[SoupBone]

Weatherbell video this am says hurricane into around Golden Triangle area. They said they’d show their track later today but are “bullish”

So Beaumont?

[SFLcane]

I see.... with crazy warm waters temps in the gulf and a more westerly track this could be the outcome per the ecmwf.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I see.... with crazy warm waters temps in the gulf and a more westerly track this could be the outcome per the ecmwf.

https://i.imgur.com/2L8tpK7.jpg

Is that a CAT 1 / High End TS?

You think so?

[NDG]

This is the reason why the Euro is stronger than the GFS's forecast, it builds a nice anticyclone on top it before reaching the NW gulf coast. The GFS in the other keeps the anticyclone ahead of towards the TX coast thus inducing northerly shear while in this same area.

[cycloneye]

Well, is up now.INVEST 92L is here