Should Barry have been upgraded?

[Shell Mound]

If the hurricane upgrade is noted in the advisory, it's definitely of the more borderline cases I've seen:

• 61.6 kt sustained, gusting to 73.9 kt north of Eugene Island at a height of 4 meters, though this is also higher than nearby stations.
• 63 kt SFMR from recon, with peak flight-level winds at 840hPa of 72 kt.
• Surface dropsonde measurement of 54 kt, though the average of the lowest 150 meters was 71 kt and an average of 65 kt across the entirety of the drop from 840hPa aloft to surface.

Doesn't make a whole lot of difference either way as gusty winds are already making their way inland, and hurricane-force winds, if they exist, probably drop below hurricane-force within a few hundred meters of the relatively unpopulated coast, if not less. Rainfall remains by and large the main threat.

Question: what evidence did the NHC have that the aircraft may have missed the strongest winds? The observation from Eugene Island looks dubious, and Doppler radar did not support a hurricane. The NHC could easily compare the location of the strongest reconnaissance-derived winds relative to radar and station data, compare the observations with the location of the strongest convection at the time, discard flagged recon observations (and possibly SFMR readings over shallow nearshore water), and conclude that BARRY was only a moderate tropical storm at landfall. Plus, the relatively high central pressure, slow movement, low environmental pressure, and large fetch (TS wind field), plus convective disorganisation, would definitely seem to support only a moderate TS. I love the NHC but this "upgrade" seems rather dubious to me.

Source

Based on all available evidence, I vote no. Please give your thoughts as to why Barry should or should not have been upgraded to a hurricane.

Edit (18 Jul 2019): Thank you to everyone who has participated and offered excellent insight thus far. Based on a reevaluation, I have tentatively adjusted my views to favour the NHC's preliminary upgrade, barring further reassessment of the data, particularly the Eugene Island observation, in light of station coverage. I particularly wish to credit TheAustinMan (post number fourteen) for persuading me to side with the NHC. I also wish to apologise for implying political motives on the part of the NHC. Most probably, as is usual, other factors were responsible—in this case and others, hard science comes first and foremost.

[CyclonicFury]

Yes. The 61.6 kt report of sustained winds supports it. Also, there were multiple SFMR readings of 63-64 kt after the center had appeared to move inland.

[toad strangler]

No.

[psyclone]

No. I've long believed ts intensity tends to be overcooked. This is another feather in that cap. When it's a borderline case it seems the higher intensity wins out.

[NotSparta]

It was really borderline and could have gone either way, but the upgrade was a good call so people would take it a bit more seriously given the rain threat

[wxman57]

No, and I'm no fan of upgrading so that the public will pay more attention to a storm (as was suggested). The plane found winds close to hurricane strength over Atchafalaya Bay on Saturday morning as the center reached the coast. I don't think there were any surface obs (not atop oil rigs) that reported anything near hurricane strength. I noted that as the recon plane passed nearly right over the deepwater buoys on Friday that the SFMR was saying 30-35 kts while the buoys were reporting 20-25 kts. I still don't trust SFMR winds to be that accurate.

[tarheelprogrammer]

No

[CFLHurricane]

Yes, not only does the data support it, but borderline measurements should defer to the higher category since measurements only tell us the minimum maximum speed.

[Blinhart]

NO

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No, most certainly not. Being on the east and northeast quadrants the highest gust reported here was 46. I know it doesn’t have much to do with it but being so close to the center would have thought we would have at least had sustained tropical storm for a long duration since it was parked off the coast forever. We had stronger winds a couple weeks ago when a complex rolled through.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yes, because every data point supports a hurricane. A little confused where the debate is coming from other than Barry looked ugly. It happens sometimes. Earl 1998 was a Cat 2 with an exposed center.

[mitchell]

No.
Question: has a hurricane ever been downgraded to a T.S. during post season reanalysis? This would seem like a good candidate.

[Astromanía]

Obviously No, this was not an hurricane in my opinion and I hope that it will downgrated to a tropical storm in post analysis, it was overrated in wind intensity but the rain and wind gust damage was clear and dangereous as is expected for a tropical cyclone in that type of area so I don´t overrated its danger as many people thinked

[TheAustinMan]

I'm gonna stick my neck out here for a bit and say that Barry's hurricane classification was justified. It is unfortunate that the reconnaissance missions that were meant to investigate the storm in the evening and early morning before landfall(s) were cut short due to mechanical issues, so we didn't really get a clear picture of what happened up until landfall. High-resolution guidance suggested that the strongest winds would have occurred along a stretch of coastal Terrebonne Parish earlier in the day where there weren't any observations. Even despite that, we did have a surface station farther west documenting 62 kt sustained winds and higher gusts above 70 kt - quite close to hurricane intensity. Adjusted for a 10-meter height, these equated to hurricane-force winds. There were several dropsondes within the convective southeast quadrant that suggested stronger winds were probable: these measured lowest 150 meter averaged winds of 71 kts, 69 kts, and 66 kts. As TropicalAnalystwx13 said earlier, looks don't really matter so long as in situ observations are available. As I noted in the main thread, though, it didn't make much of a difference either way as these localized winds probably dropped below hurricane force within a few hundred meters, if not even a few tens of meters, of the coastline.

Even though "political"/"non-empirical" influences on NHC decisions probably happen inevitably from time to time... the fact that it was only a hurricane for three hours in the morning, combined with how much the NHC/WPC/local media were emphasizing rain as the main threat and that hurricane warnings were already in place for a while suggests this was probably an honest decision based on an extrapolation of the data rather than solely in the spirit of trying to get residents to "pay attention".

I'll note that Hurricane Cindy in 2005 was upgraded in post-season on the basis of radar measuring at least 71 kt winds an altitudes higher than the level recon for Barry flew at. The highest surface observation for that storm was 60 kt and the highest SFMR in Cindy was 59 kt.

[caneman]

Nope. If you continue to overplay storms, you end up with the little boy who cried wolf syndrome.

[SconnieCane]

No.
Question: has a hurricane ever been downgraded to a T.S. during post season reanalysis? This would seem like a good candidate.

Allison 1995 was operationally considered a 65kt hurricane on the last advisory before landfall, but was later reanalyzed to have been a tropical storm at landfall although the system as a whole was still classified a hurricane while offshore.

Seems 5kt adjustments one way or another are fairly common in reanalysis (and understandable given all the variables to account for in real time data), but get exhaustively scrutinized and agonized over by the meteorological (and "weather nerd") community when they result in a category bump one way or the other that can have a significant, but ultimately academic, effect on the climate record such as whether or not Michael reset the "clock" for the US Cat. 5 landfall return period.

All that said, if it were up to me I probably wouldn't have upgraded Barry, but I'm not a meteorologist and I like pretty satellite pictures. In fact, I'd probably have been MORE inclined to upgrade it in the presence of LESS real-time wind measurements, but a clearly vertically stacked center surrounded by robust deep convection and a rapidly falling pressure.

[CrazyC83]

Looking back through it, I would need to investigate the Eugene Island station. If that is legit then yes; if not then no. SFMR is unreliable at best in shoaling and I would disregard that 63 kt report. However, that 62 kt wind from Eugene Island (at 4 m) would easily support a 65 kt sustained wind when adjusted for elevation. That report will be key - it's the only legit wind to support hurricane intensity, however, you can't beat a surface observation.

If that observation is unrepresentative, would the NHC be willing to do a post-season downgrade? It hasn't happened in a long time if ever (an operationally assessed hurricane being truly a tropical storm at peak intensity).

[chaser1]

No. I've long believed ts intensity tends to be overcooked. This is another feather in that cap. When it's a borderline case it seems the higher intensity wins out.

Ditto. And hell NO this was not a hurricane. The only thing i'll disagree with is about a good number of past year borderline cases that occurred in the MDR east of 40W where NHC was quite slow on the trigger (in some cases where an eye seemed to wane in and out on satellite). Oh, and to those that might suggest that "looks" don't matter....., to the extent that Nor'Easters and the majority of N. Atlantic Gales are also not classified as hurricanes, looks do matter and NOT simply as a result of cold core/warm core distinctions. I think it's a fair debate but honestly, I'm not even sure that I'd agree that the complex structure with multiple spinning eddies rotating around a broad surface low qualified for T.D. status. At what point during Atlantic tropical cyclone history were defining components such as persistent and banded convection co-located with a well defined COC essentially discarded? I'm going to guess sometime after Bob Sheets retired.

One more thought on the topic. I totally get the need to best warn the public along with aiding local government agencies to better rationalize taking the necessary measures to prepare such as school, work, or road closures, mobilizing emergency responders, hospitals and shelters, and initial evacuation planning, etc. What I don't like the smell of, is the hint of a last moment "hurricane" upgrade simply for the purpose of justifying previously issued hurricane warnings that ultimately were not representative of true hurricane conditions which those in Barry's path were warned about. Sure it's a tough call but there's no limit to the number of other weather watches and warning available to the NWS for flooding, high winds, severe weather, etc. I just think that the resulting public risk here applies to "some" percentage of the population living within those warning zones that won't necessarily feel like they dodged a bullet. Those folks might just be a bit less inclined to worry about anyone crying about the next big bad wolf that comes ashore there. Overall, I think that a good number of forecasts calling for very high rainfall totals missed the mark. That coupled with the actual population warned of sustained hurricane force conditions, yet ultimately experiencing wind gusts well under hurricane force could cause many within the warned area to consider the non-event a bit of a busted forecast. While that may well be an uncommon outcome for NHC, perhaps that would be an all-around better serving pubic discussion to have.

[AtlanticWind]

Yes , Barry likely had sustained hurricane force winds offshore and maybe just on the coast in a small area.
I don't believe the NHC upgraded Barry to get residents to take the storm more seriously
as they already had hurricane warnings up.

IMO this isnt really a important matter ,as I don't see any difference if the storm
had 69 mph or 72 mph or 74 mph sustained winds , the impact wasn't all that different.

We shall see on post analysis....

[NDG]

No, because it didn't have true characteristics of a hurricane and I didn't see any surface reports of hurricane sustained winds. Anybody that might have had damage from the storm 100 miles away now will have to pay a hurricane deductible. The insurance Cos are the big winners on its upgrade