Surface trough east of the Bahamas: (Is INVEST 94L)

[BobHarlem]

Assuming a depression or trop storm does develop and head toward S Fl, what time frame might be involved? Thank you for your thoughts/ideas.

Monday night/Tuesday. But I'm pretty sure nothing depression/ts wise is going to happen with this area.

[AnnularCane]

You guys might be a little bored!

[floridasun78]

not thing happening here we go enjoy beach in aug you be asking when will it end

[Hurricaneman]

not thing happening here we go enjoy beach in aug you be asking when will it end

Most likely

[floridasun78]

area want poof look like fl may get rain if any if stay bit together dry air won

[chaser1]

Upper level winds here don't look all that bad and adequately diffluent. Surface pressures are a bit high though. I think the biggest thing this little area of spin has working against it, is relative dry air throughout the mid and upper levels.

[rolltide]

I don't know about the Bahamas but the north central gulf has that tropical look on satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

Dont count this out for being a td or weak TS as it moves into more moisture

[TheStormExpert]

Dont count this out for being a td or weak TS as it moves into more moisture

There is NO model support despite a favorable shear environment. Clearly the Atlantic is not as favorable as we think.

[NotSparta]

Dont count this out for being a td or weak TS as it moves into more moisture

There is NO model support despite a favorable shear environment. Clearly the Atlantic is not as favorable as we think.

I think the impediment is time, it's expected to run into Florida in a couple of days. In July it takes a while for these types of things to develop

[sunnyday]

What part of Fl is it expected to run into in a couple of days?

[floridasun78]

What part of Fl is it expected to run into in a couple of days?

if do make all the way to fl will be most of fl from Dayton beach south to keys dwpend how big it wave is and strong

[sunnyday]

Thank you for the info. There has been nothing about it on local news.

[floridasun78]

here miami their call it a trough not tropical wave rain chance here are 40 on sunday 30 on monday so look to weather office trough going weak one unless get stronger on sunday

[Aric Dunn]

[northjaxpro]

There is just too much dry air at the mid to upper levels surrounding this feature. This is why the models are not jumping on board for showing development. It will spread some showers across the Bahamas and portions of the Florida peninsula in the next couple of days. However, no development anticipated. However, always monitor any areas of vorticity of course , nevertheless, especially given the proximity currently of this area of interest.

A very, unusually strong frontal system for July, courtesy of deep Eastern CONUS troughing (slightly - NAO currently), will drop.south into the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula by Tuesday morning, and that will absorb this tropical wave approaching Florida the next 48 hours anyway.

Keep an eye on the tail end of fronts in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. It is not very often we see fronts drop down this far south in July, so this may be something to watch as a focal point for homebrew devélopment down the road. Just a thought I wanted to mention.....

[OuterBanker]

It looks like the llc pulled under the mlc overnight. It is also now a invest. Thought this thread would now be locked.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 94L is up