How many named storms will form in the Atlantic in August?

[TheStormExpert]

I’m downing my three to one (if that).

Clearly the Atlantic is a hostile desert with tropical waves struggling due to SAL, Mid-Level Dry Air, and Wind Shear. Probably going to have to down my seasonal numbers big time if trends continue over the next week or two.

[Florida1118]

I’m downing my three to one (if that).

Clearly the Atlantic is a hostile desert with tropical waves struggling due to SAL, Mid-Level Dry Air, and Wind Shear. Probably going to have to down my seasonal numbers big time if trends continue over the next week or two.

You have said this type of thing every year, around this time, for the past few years though. Maybe you'll be right...but we all know we're in early August, when things look dead, and the switch will typically flip in mid to late August. I'd be really surprised if this is the first season since 1997 to not have any named storms in August. Even 2009 and 2013, both being super hostile years, had 4 and 3 named storms respectively in August - something to keep in mind.

[psyclone]

I'm currently weathering season cancel season in my native northeast Ohio (having waved to northjax pro, larrywx and annular cane as I drove 95 and 77 north)...will be returning mid month...at which time...it's on. August will likely deliver 2 or 3 storms...weighted toward the end of the month. The calendar is still a headwind for now but it won't be for long.

[Monsoonjr99]

Lol, I think I was being too bullish when I voted for 5 storms this month. I put too much weight into the CCKW and the recent MDR waves for early August activity. 96L has shown that currently the Atlantic is still too hostile for tropical development. Since indicators do paint a favorable Atlantic this year, I still think there will be 3 storms this month, but they will all form on or after August 20. I suppose this will be a backloaded yet active season with a sharply-defined "switch flip".

[DioBrando]

Lol, I think I was being too bullish when I voted for 5 storms this month. I put too much weight into the CCKW and the recent MDR waves for early August activity. 96L has shown that currently the Atlantic is still too hostile for tropical development. Since indicators do paint a favorable Atlantic this year, I still think there will be 3 storms this month, but they will all form on or after August 20. I suppose this will be a backloaded yet active season with a sharply-defined "switch flip".

absolutely agree with you. here's how i see it (though i could be wrong or even bullish):

chantal: august 22
(ts) open ts over the atlantic
dorian: august 29
(c1) horizontal path from cv
erin: august 31
(c2) safely recurves out to sea

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like three will be the correct answer. The best track has TD 06L as TS Erin. It's amazing how fast things can change in late August, considering just a week ago there was discussion of August having no tropical cyclones at all.

[wayne56]

7

[Hammy]

Dorian cost me being right

Since indicators do paint a favorable Atlantic this year, I still think there will be 3 storms this month, but they will all form on or after August 20. I suppose this will be a backloaded yet active season with a sharply-defined "switch flip".

This is some psychic-level forecast for being two weeks out

[Monsoonjr99]

Dorian cost me being right

Since indicators do paint a favorable Atlantic this year, I still think there will be 3 storms this month, but they will all form on or after August 20. I suppose this will be a backloaded yet active season with a sharply-defined "switch flip".

This is some psychic-level forecast for being two weeks out

That is the day Dr. Gray rung the bell, after all. But wow, pending the next few days, it looks like I nailed it in that post. Then again, this other post of mine says that I was just a blind squirrel finding a nut.

[Hammy]

Dorian cost me being right

Since indicators do paint a favorable Atlantic this year, I still think there will be 3 storms this month, but they will all form on or after August 20. I suppose this will be a backloaded yet active season with a sharply-defined "switch flip".

This is some psychic-level forecast for being two weeks out

That is the day Dr. Gray rung the bell, after all. But wow, pending the next few days, it looks like I nailed it in that post. Then again, this other post of mine says that I was just a blind squirrel finding a nut.

Or you've channeled the Euro, being more right the further out you are.

[CrazyC83]

I'm going with 3 - one of which becomes a hurricane (and a major).

Assuming Dorian sticks to forecast and we don't sneak a Fernand somewhere (like the Gulf low), I will have nailed it...by luck.