Possible Development in the Gulf of Mexico

[wxman57]

Agree, development chances look slim, but non-zero.

[Nimbus]

Only area of the front with convection is south of New Orleans and still too much shear from the front for development there.

[Stormcenter]

I would not look for anything to develop no earlier than
Sat. or Sun. if ever.

[Dean4Storms]

I would not look for anything to develop no earlier than
Sat. or Sun. if ever.

Agree there, too much dry air for now and shear isn't so much the issue currently just 15kts according the the NWS Mobile AFD. If it festers into the weekend it'll have a shot, albeit it is slim.

[Monsoonjr99]

This seems a bit similar to what became Emily 2017, which was also a surprise. Even at 10/10, you never know given what TD 3L just did. Still, I don't count on this forming. Odds are against it.

[JaxGator]

We've got a lot of rain here in Jax from the front that *could* be the catalyst for something to form in the Gulf. About four inches near Fruit Cove, my locale. Yes, I'm back, but only for a few days. I've been busy preparing to join the Air Force. I've been checking in though from time to time, so haven't missed much. Couldn't score high enough on the ASVAB to get Weather as a job, but I'm still going for it in the long run. I ship out this next Tuesday.

[artist]

We've got a lot of rain here in Jax from the front that *could* be the catalyst for something to form in the Gulf. About four inches near Fruit Cove, my locale. Yes, I'm back, but only for a few days. I've been busy preparing to join the Air Force. I've been checking in though from time to time, so haven't missed much. Couldn't score high enough on the ASVAB to get Weather as a job, but I'm still going for it in the long run. I ship out this next Tuesday.

Good luck to you, and thanks for serving.

[ronjon]

Weak circulation evident in NE GOM this morning on radar - probably non-tropical.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/florida-radar-and-satellite-loop

[northjaxpro]

Likely Non-Tropical. Circulation very evident on Tampa /Ruskin radar though.

[Nimbus]

:uarrow: Likely Non-Tropical. Circulation very evident on Tampa /Ruskin radar though.

Probably something similar down in the Bay of Campeche but until these areas near the front moisten up a bit we won't get the persistent convection needed to bring a circulation down to the surface.

I think NHC may go back to 20% rather than 0% before the end of the week.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Likely Non-Tropical. Circulation very evident on Tampa /Ruskin radar though.

I'm not seeing any evidence of rotation in the surface obs. Just a frontal boundary and high shear. Pressures in the NE Gulf around 1017mb. Gulf development chances are slim. Not zero, but less than 1%.

[northjaxpro]

Weak circulation is probably mid-level 57. Yeah too much shear and continental dry air across the GOM to allow anything to develop at the surface at this time.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Likely Non-Tropical. Circulation very evident on Tampa /Ruskin radar though.

I'm not seeing any evidence of rotation in the surface obs. Just a frontal boundary and high shear. Pressures in the NE Gulf around 1017mb. Gulf development chances are slim. Not zero, but less than 1%.

http://wxman57.com/images/Gulf.JPG

So in another words, 99% chance of no development

[Stormcenter]

BOC could be the new area to watch early next week.
IMO

[JaxGator]

We've got a lot of rain here in Jax from the front that *could* be the catalyst for something to form in the Gulf. About four inches near Fruit Cove, my locale. Yes, I'm back, but only for a few days. I've been busy preparing to join the Air Force. I've been checking in though from time to time, so haven't missed much. Couldn't score high enough on the ASVAB to get Weather as a job, but I'm still going for it in the long run. I ship out this next Tuesday.

Good luck to you, and thanks for serving.

Thank you for your support. All of you. I just hope nothing dangerous forms in the Gulf or a hurricane threatens home while I'm there. Although another unseasonal cold front wouldn't be so bad, because you know, summer in Texas.

[lrak]

What about the area south of TX/LA border....too much shear? Radar and satellite look like it's rotating?

[USTropics]

What about the area south of TX/LA border....too much shear? Radar and satellite look like it's rotating?

There's some rotation evident on satellite loops, but this is mostly at the low levels and in association with the tail end of the frontal axis. There's just not much height to it (no real vorticity at the mid to upper levels), and you can see the elongation on 850mb charts (just won't have time to consolidate with competing areas of maximum vorticity).



850mb vorticity:


On a side not, don't think I've seen a front extend from the middle of the subtropical Atlantic all the way down to the BOC at the end of July.

[lrak]

Thanks for the explanation USTropics.

[ronjon]

Another weak circulation in the NE GOM this am - probably ripples of low pressure sliding along the old front. Heavily sheared area still.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/florida-radar-and-satellite-loop

[Aric Dunn]

Another weak circulation in the NE GOM this am - probably ripples of low pressure sliding along the old front. Heavily sheared area still.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/florida-radar-and-satellite-loop

This circ is quickly organizing and radar is lighting up. but shear is high. and it should be onshore in 12 hours or so. maybe as it exits to the NE off florida when it accelerates with the shear could see it spin up.