Possible Development in the Gulf of Mexico

[tropicwatch]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Tue, 23 Jul 2019 05:41:53 +0000

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230541
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Three, located between the southeastern Florida coast
and Grand Bahama.

A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Was just going to make a thread for it. Not much model support but anything can happen over the toasty waters of the GOM.

[Dean4Storms]

It does have some Model Ensemble support but we will see.

[tropicwatch]

You can see the blow up of convection associated with the frontal boundary along the Texas coast this morning. It is also starting to build from Louisiana to Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah the models have been hinting at this possibility and me and others on the forum have mentioned at times to keep a wary eye on the tail end of frontal systems in the GOM, especially an uusually strong front for July I might add to drop this far south.

It is possible we could see another homebrew system in a few days. This has been the season for them thus far.

[northjaxpro]

We are looking at a potential huge rain event across North and Northeast FL beginning tomorrow as the front stalls out over the area and the potential Low Pressure moves right along the boundary acriss this area later this week.

[StormLogic]

1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, conditions
could become marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical
development as it moves slowly northeastward through the end of the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[StormLogic]

Awfully humid this morning around SETX

[NDG]

For anything that would start as a non tropical low pressure it will have to hang around the GOM past 4-5 days from now. The UL trough is forecasted to really dig down across the central GOM for the next 4-5 days before UL winds become better for tropical development, and by that time the surface could be long gone.

[Emmett_Brown]

More home-brew? Sheared storms of hybrid origin close to home are a July tradition, and often serve as the zany opening act to the main season, often with little or no correlation to how much activity there is during the season peak. Something to watch for now as the MDR continues to slumber.

[StormLogic]

More home-brew? Sheared storms of hybrid origin close to home are a July tradition, and often serve as the zany opening act to the main season, often with little or no correlation to how much activity there is during the season peak. Something to watch for now as the MDR continues to slumber.

some are calling this a dead season, I say give it a few weeks lol

[Frank P]

Well at least something for the GOMers to watch.. my best guess would be a weak low develops on the western most edge of the lemon cone and moves off towards the AL/FL coastal areas... never know about these home grown systems, but certainly convenient to watch for any development or non development

[psyclone]

FWIW the WPC has a QPF bullseye over the extreme northeastern gulf and up off the southeast coast...very reminiscent of the initial precipitation estimates pre Barry. As we all know those early east weighted forecasts busted as Barry and its rains ended up much more westward. Not too bullish on development with this one but anyone that gets into a deep, focused onshore flow south of a front/troughing in the Summer is in line for potentially heavy rain and that does appear likely especially in the big bend region..

[Nimbus]

Tail of the front where the shear is lowest is way back over Texas ATM.
This could become an invest as that is an unusually deep digging front for late July.

[tropicwatch]

850mb vorticity already increasing just south of Louisiana.

[Nimbus]

Thunderstorms drifting south on the Brownsville radar outline the tail end of the front.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers located over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A
non-tropical low could form along this boundary late Wednesday or
Thursday, and environmental conditions could support some
subtropical or tropical development late this week while the
disturbance meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[OuterBanker]

As with td3 no model support. Zero, zilch.

[EasyTiger]

As with td3 no model support. Zero, zilch.

Lol! You guys crack me up. Far more to meteorological analysis than the global models. The surface map does indeed show a low pressure close to Brownsville and the Mesoscale models have been hinting at possible development for several days. Also, if you look closely, some of the Global models show a possible closed low in the Gulf. The setup is there; however the atmospheric conditions are less than ideal, but who knows.

[chaser1]

....another yawner. Wake me up when the season begins.