Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (along 46W)
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cycloneye
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Edited the title to update the location of wave axis now SW of the Cape Verde Islands.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
colbroe wrote:The low pressure 1015 mb has been added to the wave once again.
Yep. And the coordinates stated in the latest TWD are exactly where I eyeballed it in my last comment above.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Minor support for the northern end of this to develop north of the islands in 6-7 days (only UKMET, ICON and some random ensembles show this).
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USTropics
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Siker wrote:Minor support for the northern end of this to develop north of the islands in 6-7 days (only UKMET, ICON and some random ensembles show this).
This is actually the wave the 00z ECMWF runs have been latching onto for development. ICON/UKMET develops the wave that is currently just east of the Leeward Islands.
Animated UKMET run:
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
I know this is nothing like the huge shear-induced convection east of the Lesser Antilles, but the little blob of convection at 15N 41W is looking very interesting.
Rammb Slider showing a really nice LL vort and confirmed on CIMSS.
Just on the edge of SAL and Shear.
GFS has a 1010mb low in 18 hrs but doesn't take it too far.
Rammb Slider showing a really nice LL vort and confirmed on CIMSS.
Just on the edge of SAL and Shear.
GFS has a 1010mb low in 18 hrs but doesn't take it too far.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
GCANE wrote:I know this is nothing like the huge shear-induced convection east of the Lesser Antilles, but the little blob of convection at 15N 41W is looking very interesting.
Rammb Slider showing a really nice LL vort and confirmed on CIMSS.
Just on the edge of SAL and Shear.
GFS has a 1010mb low in 18 hrs but doesn't take it too far.
Hot tower at sunset but the low level inflow on the eastern side hasn't quite closed off.
Doesn't look like the dry environment has totally limited development potential yet.
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AJC3
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (along 46W)
At one time this thread had posts talking about THREE different waves.
This is why a post was made several years ago on behalf of the mods that IT IS INCUMBENT ON ANYONE WHO STARTS A THREAD TO KEEP THE THREAD TITLE CURRENT AND AS SPECIFIC AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID CONFUSION. PLEASE READ THIS POST AGAIN, especially for those who like to start threads for waves near the COA (coast of Africa)...
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118093
DON'T JUST START A THREAD AND LEAVE IT FOR DAYS (in this case, nearly two!) without updating the title if it becomes unrepresentative.
Part of the confusion in this thread is because of the OP, and which Atlantic wave was meant to be discussed. The OP's title mentioned a wave just off the COA.
The problem here is that there wasn't actually a wave in that position at the time, and there wouldn't be one for another day and a half. Moreover, the OP mentioned a 1012MB low which had been added...but that was to a wave that was along 29W, well off the COA.
This is the farthest east of any wave that was mentioned in that TWD. No other wave farther east, close to the COA, was mentioned until 00Z FRI/THU 8PM...
By that time, the T-wave which formerly contained the 1012MB low had moved farther west, and was encroaching upon the central Atlantic.
In a later post from ~5AM Saturday morning, the poster who started this thread mentioned that a 1015MB low had been re-added...
According to NHC, by that time the wave had moved west to 37W...
This is what we have out there now, according to the latest TWD...
Thus, for the purpose of this thread, it's assumed that the OP's two posts were in reference to the wave that was along 29W Wednesday afternoon, along 37W early Saturday morning, and is now along 46W as of Sunday evening.
Any discussion of the wave farther east along 35W can be discussed in another thread. Feel free to start one, however both waves appear to be getting choked off pretty badly by SAL and are pretty much devoid of deep convection this evening.
Carry on...
This is why a post was made several years ago on behalf of the mods that IT IS INCUMBENT ON ANYONE WHO STARTS A THREAD TO KEEP THE THREAD TITLE CURRENT AND AS SPECIFIC AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID CONFUSION. PLEASE READ THIS POST AGAIN, especially for those who like to start threads for waves near the COA (coast of Africa)...
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118093
DON'T JUST START A THREAD AND LEAVE IT FOR DAYS (in this case, nearly two!) without updating the title if it becomes unrepresentative.
Part of the confusion in this thread is because of the OP, and which Atlantic wave was meant to be discussed. The OP's title mentioned a wave just off the COA.
colbroe wrote:Of interest is the tropical wave just of the African coast with a 1012 MB low which has now been added. We will watch and see if this develops.
The problem here is that there wasn't actually a wave in that position at the time, and there wouldn't be one for another day and a half. Moreover, the OP mentioned a 1012MB low which had been added...but that was to a wave that was along 29W, well off the COA.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29/30W S of 19N, moving
W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection from 06N-09N
between 25W-29W is being caused by the wave and a 1012 mb surface
low near 09N26W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N-08N
between 32W-37W may be more due to the monsoon trough than the
wave.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29/30W S of 19N, moving
W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection from 06N-09N
between 25W-29W is being caused by the wave and a 1012 mb surface
low near 09N26W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N-08N
between 32W-37W may be more due to the monsoon trough than the
wave.
This is the farthest east of any wave that was mentioned in that TWD. No other wave farther east, close to the COA, was mentioned until 00Z FRI/THU 8PM...
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is present along the coast of Africa along 14W from
16N southward. Scattered moderate isolated convection is offshore
along the coast of Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Guinea extending out
180 nm to the east of the wave.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is present along the coast of Africa along 14W from
16N southward. Scattered moderate isolated convection is offshore
along the coast of Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Guinea extending out
180 nm to the east of the wave.
By that time, the T-wave which formerly contained the 1012MB low had moved farther west, and was encroaching upon the central Atlantic.
In a later post from ~5AM Saturday morning, the poster who started this thread mentioned that a 1015MB low had been re-added...
colbroe wrote:The low pressure 1015 mb has been added to the wave once again.
According to NHC, by that time the wave had moved west to 37W...
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W
from 02N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted
in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-12N between 24W-29W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W
from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1015 mb surface low has
developed in the wave's environment, centered near 13N37W.
This wave is well depicted in model guidance and in the Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers are noted near
the low.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W
from 02N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted
in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-12N between 24W-29W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W
from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1015 mb surface low has
developed in the wave's environment, centered near 13N37W.
This wave is well depicted in model guidance and in the Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers are noted near
the low.
This is what we have out there now, according to the latest TWD...
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 16W, from 17N southward along the African
coast. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 07N-17N extending 300 nm on
either side of the wave. At this time, the scattered moderate
strong convection is affecting Senegal, the coast of Guinea and
Guinea- Bissau.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 17N southward,
moving at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 04N-09N
between 33W-38W near the monsoon trough.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 17N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are along the vicinity
of the wave axis.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 16W, from 17N southward along the African
coast. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 07N-17N extending 300 nm on
either side of the wave. At this time, the scattered moderate
strong convection is affecting Senegal, the coast of Guinea and
Guinea- Bissau.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 17N southward,
moving at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 04N-09N
between 33W-38W near the monsoon trough.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 17N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are along the vicinity
of the wave axis.
Thus, for the purpose of this thread, it's assumed that the OP's two posts were in reference to the wave that was along 29W Wednesday afternoon, along 37W early Saturday morning, and is now along 46W as of Sunday evening.
Any discussion of the wave farther east along 35W can be discussed in another thread. Feel free to start one, however both waves appear to be getting choked off pretty badly by SAL and are pretty much devoid of deep convection this evening.
Carry on...
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (along 46W)
Maybe we can use this to ID and track the various waves.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ab ... s/genesis/
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ab ... s/genesis/
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