Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: (Is INVEST 95L)

[gatorcane]

Quite a west shift by ICON which moves it very slowly north through the NW Bahamas:

[boca]

I’m hoping this shifts further west we can always use the rain.

[gatorcane]

Notice how the GFS is already backing off on the positioning of the trough placing it further west in the latest run over Western Gulf.. See below with a comparison of 00Z and 12Z runs. Looks like a much different pattern over Canada too:

00Z last night:


12Z today:

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m hoping this shifts further west we can always use the rain.

I've had enough plans cancelled in July because of rain.

Anyway, the past few years have taught me to pay attention to UKMET when it sniffs out trends early. So that's what I'm keeping an eye on next couple of days...

[cycloneye]

One nice thing this strong tropical wave is bringing some much needed rains into the Lesser Antilles and eventual Greater Antilles.

The sure thing is beneficial rains to some of the islands including Puerto Rico that has a severe drought for the south and moderate drought for other areas.

[gatorcane]

Canadian a bit more vorticity and slightly more west. Looks closer to the UKMET:

[drezee]

I'm not saying it yet but...SW winds on Grenada for a couple of hours...not an outflow boundary



https://aviationweather.gov/adds/metars ... hk_tafs=on

[NDG]

Interesting ASCAT pass, broad circulation/sharp trough.

[Aric Dunn]

Im not say it yet but...SW winds on Grenada for a couple of hours...not an outflow boundary

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/sfcplots/sfcplot_latest.png

yeah I have been watching it closely. there is a whole lot of convection.. it takes a lot of convergence to overcome the flow that is nearly always present in the eastern carrib. but there is some things to note lol..

[psyclone]

Ever since Hermine the eastern Gulf has had a hot hand. Here's to hoping if anything comes of this we end up on the dry side of the tracks. We do not need rain here at all...quite the opposite..

[drezee]

Duplicate

[NDG]

Updated saved satellite loop. With it now entering the grave yard it should keep it from developing or organizing much before reaching the Greater Antilles.

[gatorcane]

Latest 850mb vort map shows it further west than before. The models that develop near Bahamas like the northeastern part of this wave:



Anticyclone has built over top but a lot of shear ahead.

[TheStormExpert]

If this were to end up in the Eastern Gulf would conditions be as favorable as they were for TD #3 if it had made it into the gulf?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1155521438733914112

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1155527993474764800

[NDG]

If this were to end up in the Eastern Gulf would conditions be as favorable as they were for TD #3 if it had made it into the gulf?

Conditions in the eastern GOM were not that great when TD #3 formed. There was an upper level low just west of SW FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest 850mb vort map shows it further west than before. The models that develop near Bahamas like the northeastern part of this wave:

https://i.postimg.cc/G2R4zbB9/wg8vor.gif

Anticyclone has built over top but a lot of shear ahead.

https://i.postimg.cc/D08nPNc8/wg8shr.gif

Good maybe the 18z model runs will initialize better and we can get a decent run from them.

As for the shear. It has and will continue to move west ahead of it for now.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land. However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NDG]

I say that this will be an invest later today if convection persists, but models will not do much with it over the next 3-5 days.