Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: (Is INVEST 95L)

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drezee
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles: 2 PM TWO=10%/20%

#81 Postby drezee » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:33 pm

Thank you NHC!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42059

This buoy will be telling a low level story over the next 36 hours...
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles

#82 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:37 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest 850mb vort map shows it further west than before. The models that develop near Bahamas like the northeastern part of this wave:

https://i.postimg.cc/G2R4zbB9/wg8vor.gif

Anticyclone has built over top but a lot of shear ahead.

https://i.postimg.cc/D08nPNc8/wg8shr.gif


Just because the shear is there right now doesnt mean it wont move out of the way if the anti-cyclone is moving in tandem. The atmosphere is not a static snapshot. Its always in motion
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%/20%

#83 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:42 pm

The graphic came out late.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%/20%

#84 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:43 pm

If the NHC is mentioning the Florida Straits, they must be hedging on stronger ridging
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%/20%

#85 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:49 pm

Really flared up today, something to watch for sure.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%/20%

#86 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:57 pm

Glad to see they are going more towards the ukmet
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%/20%

#87 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:58 pm

NotSparta wrote:If the NHC is mentioning the Florida Straits, they must be hedging on stronger ridging


Mostly its location and present motion.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%/20%

#88 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:09 pm

This initialization by 12Z ECMWF looks too far to the east. Models may indeed be playing catch-up. But looks like in about 24-48 hours shear picks up across the Northern Caribbean:

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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: (Is INVEST 95L)

#89 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:12 pm

Yes!! We have this==== INVEST 95L is up
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