2019 TCRs

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galaxy401
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#41 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:13 pm

Hurricane Juliette has been released.
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Re: 2019 TCRs (Lorenzo published)

#42 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:30 pm

Jerry and Lorenzo have been released by the NHC.

They did not downgrade Lorenzo. It remains a Category 5. They noted the uncertainly among the 6-hour fixes of Dvorak with a wide range of estimates. They kept it a 5 partially due to the impressive satellite appearance.
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Re: 2019 TCRs (Lorenzo published)

#43 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:47 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Jerry and Lorenzo have been released by the NHC.

They did not downgrade Lorenzo. It remains a Category 5. They noted the uncertainly among the 6-hour fixes of Dvorak with a wide range of estimates. They kept it a 5 partially due to the impressive satellite appearance.


Seems like they used the "single frame analysis" thing here in Lorenzo. IMO, 2 hours of T7.0 does not justify having an upgrade to C5. Also ADT sucks at estimates because of cloud top problems. Should've been downed to 135 kt or even 130 kt (also surprised why the first peak wasn't raised to that value).
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Re: 2019 TCRs: Hurricanes Jerry and Lorenzo reports are up

#44 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:48 pm

Here is why they kept at 140 kts.From report:

The 140-kt peak intensity of Lorenzo at 0300 UTC 29 September is based primarily on a
Dvorak data-T pattern of T-7.0/140 kt that lasted from 0100 UTC to 0300 UTC with corresponding
ADT values of 143 kt. In real time, special 0130 UTC Dvorak classifications of T7.0/7.0 were
provided by both TAFB and SAB, while a SATCON fix showed a similarly high value of 135 kt.
No reconnaissance data was available at the time of Lorenzo’s estimated peak intensity.
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Re: 2019 TCRs: Hurricanes Jerry and Lorenzo reports are up

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:25 pm

The uncertainty is definitely enormous there. However, the satellite signature was more impressive than even Dorian was when it was at its peak intensity. But as we see in the WPAC a lot, it can be so hard to analyze high-end hurricanes when no Recon is available. There is good consensus on the 115 kt intensity at 1800Z and the 90 kt intensity at 1800Z the following day though.

I'd have made the initial peak 135 kt at 27/0300Z for the same reasoning.

Satellite also blew it with Jerry. At its peak intensity of 90 kt (supported by Recon, a case for 95 kt could also be made), it was around T4.0 which would be 65-70 kt at most.
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Re: 2019 TCRs (Lorenzo published)

#46 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:58 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Jerry and Lorenzo have been released by the NHC.

They did not downgrade Lorenzo. It remains a Category 5. They noted the uncertainly among the 6-hour fixes of Dvorak with a wide range of estimates. They kept it a 5 partially due to the impressive satellite appearance.

I’m not sure what surprises me most: the fact that both are done already, or that Lorenzo survived post-season analysis.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#47 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:03 am

Tropical Storm Priscilla report has been released.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP192019_Priscilla.pdf
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#48 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:21 pm

Subtropical Storm Rebekah report has been released.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#49 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:42 pm

Hurricane Kiko report is up. Peak intensity was 115 kts.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:23 am

Tropical Storm Raymond report is up.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#51 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:56 am

Melissa from the Atlantic and Gil from the Pacific have also been released.

For the Pacific that just leaves Flossie, Octave as well as TD 21E for the EPAC and Ema from the CPAC.

Update: ...And Flossie came out a few hours later so now it's just Octave and TD 21E. :lol:
Last edited by galaxy401 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:58 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Melissa from the Atlantic and Gil from the Pacific have also been released.

For the Pacific that just leaves Flossie, Octave as well as TD 21E for the EPAC and Ema from the CPAC.


Hurricane Flossie is also up.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#53 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:59 pm

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Re: 2019 TCRs

#54 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:08 pm

TD 21-E was also released today as well. Octave is the only storm in the EPAC left.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:25 am

Operationally, Gabrielle was briefly a remnant low, but that is gone in the post-analysis and the TC duration is continuous. As for 21E, I think the ASCAT passes should have supported an upgrade to TS but I know that the NHC rarely upgrades (or downgrades) from TD to TS or vice versa.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#56 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:04 am

TS Karen report is out.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#57 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:29 am

Fernand is also up.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#58 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:15 pm

I would guess that Pablo and Sebastien will be next, since they were pretty straightforward. Dorian should take a while with its plethora of data (as well as Imelda), while Nestor and Olga likely have question marks about their lifespan with significant changes (probably lengthening of the track on both ends) possibly involved.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#59 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I would guess that Pablo and Sebastien will be next, since they were pretty straightforward. Dorian should take a while with its plethora of data (as well as Imelda), while Nestor and Olga likely have question marks about their lifespan with significant changes (probably lengthening of the track on both ends) possibly involved.

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Re: 2019 TCRs

#60 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:29 pm

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