Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

I am making a thread for this wave for 2 reasons.First it will cause a good deal of rain on the 19th-20th on the NE Caribbean and second,after it moves thru that area models try to develop it mainly GFS in the GOM so let's see what occurs to this wave in it's long journey as it has to deal with the dry air / Saharan air Layer.

From the San Juan NWS.

Latest model guidance is indicating a strong tropical wave,
currently moving off the west coast of Africa, could impact the
local area late Sunday night and next Monday, August 19th. This
feature could bring more widespread and more significant rainfall
activity across the local area during this time frame. However,
given that we are still about week away from this wave impacting
the local area, confidence is low as to how much rainfall can be
expected. This will all depend on the track of the wave. Please
stay tuned to the latest forecast updates throughout the week as
confidence increases on the eventual outcome of this wave.

[cycloneye]

I know with the lack of replies this thread has so far is because this wave does not appear with a dense red ball of convection that atracts atention but the models at least in a modest way do something on long range.12z GFS.

[DioBrando]

At least this is showing that the Atlantic is becoming less hostile. Trends are important to watch.

[NDG]

The GFS has been very persistent that it will have almost perfect UL conditions when it arrives into the western basin and it will pull some deep tropical moisture.

[Nimbus]

I know with the lack of replies this thread has so far is because this wave does not appear with a dense red ball of convection that atracts atention but the models at least in a modest way do something on long range.12z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/qsZ6ZRu.png

Starting to pick up convection with some inflow this afternoon but that dry air to its west looks like an inhibiting factor.

[Hammy]

Euro with some potential development

[floridasun78]

have good fight ahead with dry air and SAl we saw what happen to other invest came by same area want puff models have hurr going into bahamas never happen only diffent this team we going peak of season but thing need change see next name systems

[cycloneye]

18z GFS over Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Later to South Florida.

[cycloneye]

Strong Tropical Storm in GOM.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane.But is only one run so caution.

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane.But is only one run so caution.

https://i.imgur.com/2Gkg4VQ.png

yeah though it is also the first run to have a hurricane outside a few from barry.

track is similar to yesterdays. but it was really weak and sheared.

[cycloneye]

For the record.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a Cat 4 into central texas.

[Aric Dunn]

and with that type of ridging the GFS and euro are showing developing in 7 days and lasting till at least September ....if this run kept going it would probably end up in colorado before turning..

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

Also looking at the GFS at various levels. It is the wave just ahead of the wave that left africa yesterday.

wave circled in red is wave on this run the gfs develops. not the one behind it.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1161055237156802560

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1161055237156802560

watch on sim satellite.. it comes from the leading wave. gains energy as it passes through some strong divergent shear and then conditions improve.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81218&fh=6

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1161055237156802560

watch on sim satellite.. it comes from the leading wave. gains energy as it passes through some strong divergent shear and then conditions improve.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=198

Edited the title.