Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[catskillfire51]

00z Euro shows it further south

[SoupBone]

EURO with weak area of low pressure in the western Gulf. But how much do you want to read into that with an eastern Pacific system competing for energy? What if there’s no EPAC system? Lots of variables at play.

And what if there is? EPAC wins out?

[TheStormExpert]

Don't look now but the 00z GFS-Legacy went MUCH stronger with the Gulf system for what it's worth. Shows a 963mb hurricane striking Southern Louisiana.

[Aric Dunn]

I believe the GFS/ECMWF have been developing the wave for the thread Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120411). You can track it with the 700mb wind barbs:

https://i.ibb.co/rZdr4m1/Webp-net-gifmaker-10.gif

Yeah, stronger ridging . Still think as the wave approaches the islands ot will get a good energy boost and the models might latch on a little more once there is something more significant to latch onto.

[cycloneye]

For the record,I moved the posts of USTropics and Aric Dunn from the main models thread to this one.

[NDG]

It makes sense that the GFS dropped the idea of it developing this TW north of the Greater Antilles as earlier forecasted as it now shows the semi permanent TUTT north of PR/Hispaniola to stay put in the same area for the next 10 days or so, the Euro has been showing this all along the reason why it never showed development east of FL like the GFS was showing.

[NDG]

I believe the GFS/ECMWF have been developing the wave for the thread Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120411). You can track it with the 700mb wind barbs:

https://i.ibb.co/rZdr4m1/Webp-net-gifmaker-10.gif

Good catch!

[TheStormExpert]

Whelp, the 06z GFS and GFS-Legacy both drop development of anything significant outside of a weak sheared low into the NW Gulf Coast.

[crownweather]

Whelp, the 06z GFS and GFS-Legacy both drop development of anything significant outside of a weak sheared low into the NW Gulf Coast.

But yet, there are actually more members of the 06z GEFS that show development. Hmmm......

[cycloneye]

Edited title to make reference to the Windward Islands.

[NDG]

Whelp, the 06z GFS and GFS-Legacy both drop development of anything significant outside of a weak sheared low into the NW Gulf Coast.

But yet, there are actually more members of the 06z GEFS that show development. Hmmm......

Yep, increasing ensemble support on development.

[NDG]

There's also some ensemble support increase from the Euro on last night's run.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS picked up on this disturbance , moving into the NW Caribbean by Aug 21 and develops it into a TD/TS into the Southern Gulf. It moves it north to MS/AL coast by Aug 24.

[SoupBone]

06Z GFS picked up on this disturbance , moving into the NW Caribbean by Aug 21 and develops it into a TD/TS into the Southern Gulf. It moves it north to MS/AL coast by Aug 24.

I understand that weather is very fluid (had to get this out of the way), but the Death Ridge parked over Texas is especially brutal this year. I have a tough time believing that it will go away anytime soon for the Texas coast. Wouldn't that push this system along the ridge toward the NE?

[wxman57]

06Z GFS picked up on this disturbance , moving into the NW Caribbean by Aug 21 and develops it into a TD/TS into the Southern Gulf. It moves it north to MS/AL coast by Aug 24.

I understand that weather is very fluid (had to get this out of the way), but the Death Ridge parked over Texas is especially brutal this year. I have a tough time believing that it will go away anytime soon for the Texas coast. Wouldn't that push this system along the ridge toward the NE?

Models are in good enough agreement that "something" may track across the Gulf, possibly toward Texas, late next week. I'm hoping we can get a little rain out of it. Slight chance it could develop into a TD/TS if it reaches the Gulf. Something to keep an eye on, but it's still nearly 2000 miles east of the Caribbean.

[SoupBone]

06Z GFS picked up on this disturbance , moving into the NW Caribbean by Aug 21 and develops it into a TD/TS into the Southern Gulf. It moves it north to MS/AL coast by Aug 24.

I understand that weather is very fluid (had to get this out of the way), but the Death Ridge parked over Texas is especially brutal this year. I have a tough time believing that it will go away anytime soon for the Texas coast. Wouldn't that push this system along the ridge toward the NE?

Models are in good enough agreement that "something" may track across the Gulf, possibly toward Texas, late next week. I'm hoping we can get a little rain out of it. Slight chance it could develop into a TD/TS if it reaches the Gulf. Something to keep an eye on, but it's still nearly 2000 miles east of the Caribbean.

Well aren't you the bearer of great news.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS has very little from this relative to prior runs.

[SoupBone]

The 12Z GFS has very little from this relative to prior runs.

I'm only seeing it out to the 19th. This "system's" genesis wasn't until around the 21st, right?

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS has very little from this relative to prior runs.

I'm only seeing it out to the 19th. This "system's" genesis wasn't until around the 21st, right?

Correct, but I'm already seeing through the 23rd. On this run it is just a rain enhancer for the Gulf coast from a nonclosed surface low or very weak closed low/more like a surface trough. Joe Bastardi might refer to this run as a Peggy Lee: Is that all there is? Let's see what the GEFS shows.

[SoupBone]

The 12Z GFS has very little from this relative to prior runs.

I'm only seeing it out to the 19th. This "system's" genesis wasn't until around the 21st, right?

Correct, but I'm already seeing through the 23rd. On this run it is just a rain enhancer for the Gulf coast from a nonclosed surface low or very weak closed low/more like a surface trough. Joe Bastardi might refer to this run as a Peggy Lee: Is that all there is?

We wouldn't be opposed to a little bit of rain on the Texas coast, it's been bone dry since June. But NO MORE.