Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
It hangs out in the Brownsville area.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
Interesting run. I want to see the ensembles to see what if any members keep it away from land interaction
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
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crownweather
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
12z FV-3 GFS and especially the GFS-Legacy model reminds me a little of Bret in 1999.
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Rob Lightbown
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
crownweather wrote:12z FV-3 GFS and especially the GFS-Legacy model reminds me a little of Bret in 1999.
And Bret (1999) was never retired why?
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crownweather
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
TheStormExpert wrote:crownweather wrote:12z FV-3 GFS and especially the GFS-Legacy model reminds me a little of Bret in 1999.
And Bret (1999) was never retired why?
Because it made landfall in a very sparsely populated Kenedy County, Texas and thus damage was relatively low.
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Rob Lightbown
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StruThiO
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
TheStormExpert wrote:crownweather wrote:12z FV-3 GFS and especially the GFS-Legacy model reminds me a little of Bret in 1999.
And Bret (1999) was never retired why?
IIRC hit very low population area
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
StruThiO wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:crownweather wrote:12z FV-3 GFS and especially the GFS-Legacy model reminds me a little of Bret in 1999.
And Bret (1999) was never retired why?
IIRC hit very low population area
Makes sense.
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Astromanía
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
Possible tropical depression landfall in Tamaulipas? That's Matamoros area, but rain is needed there so nothing to worry about for now.
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jlauderdal
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
so the candian becomes the threshold?cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162050045480452096
this board needs a storm bad to settle things down a bit..i say labor day you will all have something to track
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
The 6Z and 12Z GEFS runs are by far the most active GEFS run yet with many TDs and TSs as well as a couple of Hs but further west than recent days with most hitting TX and LA.
OTOH, the 12Z Euro has very little.
OTOH, the 12Z Euro has very little.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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stormlover2013
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
Despite the 12Z Euro operational having virtually nothing, the 12Z Euro ensemble actually is like the 6Z and 12 GEFS about the most active Euro ens yet from what I recall. It has W and C GOM hits 8/22-24. I still wouldn't call it strong support though as it is still less active than the GEFS keeping in mind there are over 50 Euro ens members vs only just over 20 GEFS members.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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stormlover2013
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html
yeah the euro ensem prob has more than what it has been showing.
yeah the euro ensem prob has more than what it has been showing.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
stormlover2013 wrote:https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/921-w-267-n/2019081512-240.html
yeah the euro ensem prob has more than what it has been showing.
I'd say with near certainly that the average intensity is easily the strongest run yet. I count about 7 Hs on this Euro ens run vs only either 2 or 3 on the prior one, only either 0 or 1 from 2 runs ago runs, and none from 3 runs ago.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
Definitely an increase on Euro ensembles now showing development from previous runs despite its operational dropping it.
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Astromanía
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
looking close that model that shows a 977mb system towards Mexico a la Alex 2010...
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
If this does develop I’d say anyone from Mexico to Louisiana would be the most likely landfall place.
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
18z GEFS definitely had an uptick in stronger systems. Mostly aimed at Texas and Louisiana.
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