Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[lrak]

This mess is not going away quietly.

I almost posted the same. It seems to be stuck, earlier this week the forecast was for all of it to push N and swamp LA by today or tomorrow?

[stormlover2013]

12z Euro again loops this across the SE, across FL and back into the Gulf and ends as what looks like a weak TC on the Louisiana coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=-24



could ride the coast, but heck long long ways out

[TheProfessor]

Latest vorticity charts hint that the storm might be trying to do something, but it likely won't have enough time over water.

[TexWx]

Thoughts since watching satellite since yesterday, that it would spin up as a minimal TS while moving ashore.

[wxman57]

The only concern I have about the mess in the Gulf is that I have not received a drop of rain at my house in SW Houston yet. No rotation out there, development chances VERY low.

[SoupBone]

The only concern I have about the mess in the Gulf is that I have not received a drop of rain at my house in SW Houston yet. No rotation out there, development chances VERY low.

I've gotten about 1/8th of an inch in the Woodlands.

[Nimbus]

Persistent convection SE of Brownsville but that may not be enough to create an invest.

[PTrackerLA]

Flash flood watches issued for my area, 1"-4" expected just through tomorrow with higher amounts possible. We just crossed the 50" for the year mark a few days ago here with over 30" just since June 1st. Yeah it's been wet...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Huge bust over here today. Weather has been near perfect. Only received one little shower before lunch that was enough to get the ground damp. Not sounding as bullish for heavy rains for tomorrow as they were yesterday either.

[Steve]

Not much in the city either Mike. I saw some dark clouds down toward lower Plaquemines Parish this morning but it went south of here. We had that one band with a nice downpour yesterday afternoon but the next one broke up after sunset and just kinda drizzled. QPF has most of the heaviest rain offshore and NAM 84 hours doesn’t have that much either. Hard to say, but looks like enough energy that somebody could get dumped on during an up pulse with daytime heating tomorrow or Sunday, but I don’t think it’s gonna be anything noteworthy outside of keeping highs in the 80s.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Stormcenter]

Maybe i’m on the outside on this one but we have
a concentrated area of heavy storms in the warm Gulf
and it’s late August.....hmmmmm

[Steve]

Maybe i’m on the outside on this one but we have
a concentrated area of heavy storms in the warm Gulf
and it’s late August.....hmmmmm

MJO is + but only marginal IMHO. There is juice, but I feel like only enough for shadow genesis if that makes sense. I agree with you, but this time it doesn’t look like much will come out of the setup.

[TheProfessor]

Vorticity is definitely stronger as of 0z at all levels, however. They're not stacked and the 700mb vorticity is a bit stretched.

[lrak]

It does look like something cooking https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002 buoy 200 miles East of Brownsville TX

[Steve]

See if it fires up a round in the am. Gulf looks mostly unsettled next couple weeks. A big upper low will cross the Great Lakes and drop a piece of energy in already a sort of frontal gulf situation with another shot coming from the Caribbean maybe 8 days? Nothing is imminent but there ought to be a couple features to look for between now and Labor Day in the gulf

[NDG]

There's the weak low level vorticity trying to get going this morning ESE of Galveston just as the Euro has been persistently showing it was to try to do just before moving onshore.

[tropicwatch]

On satellite, the whole mess appears to be starting to slide eastward.

[Steve]

On satellite, the whole mess appears to be starting to slide eastward.

Looks like a boundary is moving through/intersecting with it helping kick start the showers. Some of the mesoscale models want to poof the energy as it slides by. Idk. Looks like Lake Charles and points south and southeast of there will get the most rain and training bands.

[NDG]

I hate to say it but with a vorticity developing south of LA/TX border that will keep the heaviest rains well east of Houston as the whole disturbance moves to the ENE away from SE TX.

[Aric Dunn]

well would you look at that.

what will it do now...back build ese like the mesoscale models or ene to east like the global than back offshore florida then back to texas.... going to be wet while we wait lol..