Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

[Aric Dunn]

I think the best chances it has for development is if it develops east of FL instead of the eastern GOM, it will have better UL divergence to work with east of the UL trough that will sit over FL between the two areas of UL ridges, one over the central GOM and the other one over the northern Bahamas/east of FL.

That's true reasoning,, but unless it organizes quicker and gets stronger than anticipated during the next 24-36 hours or so, I do not see this (the potential LLC that is) moving east of Florida initially. The low level steering flow will keep this system moving w/nw well into the weekend to the GOM.

Well considering the mid level steering extends farther west and stronger then the low level.. at least currently... even if it is a Ts it would still likely end up in the gulf. Euro continues to to show a lopsided system which forces any low level features to elongate and reform with the convection. Currently there is some shear and it is lopsided but the shear really is not out of the sw its almost west to east so i dont see that happening unless the angle of the shear change.

[Aric Dunn]

Also of note. The area of broad rotstion west of andos is fading and the flow is changing to sw in that vort/circ feature. So convection may pop soon with it.

The feature appears to be winning over..

[boca]

The steering flow says GOM, but the NHC says north along the SE coast

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Bahamas has become a little better organized since
yesterday. Additional slow development is possible during the next
several days while the system moves northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula at 5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the
southeastern coast of the United States. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the
southern Florida peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ronjon]

12z gfs is looking more reasonable finally given the setup. Very small window for out to sea track east of florida. Euro has been right on the fence.. now we wait to see if the euro finally follows.

Gfs also really does not split the system. Little pices comes off but otherwiseit stays symmetrical.

12z GFS actually brings the vorticity up along Fl west coast and crosses the peninsula to NE Fl coast, then slides south, then southwest across the peninsula and trekking W-SW across the GOM where it becomes a hurricane and impacts SE Tx. If you believe that..well...

[tropicwatch]

The NHC still sticking with the east coast for any potential development.

[NDG]

The steering flow says GOM, but the NHC says north along the SE coast

The low level steering might say GOM but the mid level steering say SE Coast as the weak mid level ridge north of the disturbance moves east towards Bermuda creating a path for the system to move north.

[NDG]

12z gfs is looking more reasonable finally given the setup. Very small window for out to sea track east of florida. Euro has been right on the fence.. now we wait to see if the euro finally follows.

Gfs also really does not split the system. Little pices comes off but otherwiseit stays symmetrical.

12z GFS actually brings the vorticity up along Fl west coast and crosses the peninsula to NE Fl coast, then slides south, then southwest across the peninsula and trekking W-SW across the GOM where it becomes a hurricane and impacts SE Tx. If you believe that..well...

The latest Euro keeps the vorticity along the FL east coast not west coast, not that it matters much as it continues to show it will eventually go to the NE.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro is stronger than prior runs as it moves NE 100 miles E of GA coast at hour 72.

[tolakram]

Euro back to showing some development.

[NDG]

I disagree with the NHC saying on its latest TWO that it is a trough of low pressure, it is now more than just a trough as vis satellite loop now clearly shows that it is a close broad low level circulation.

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6904.8740234375&y=5786.87939453125

[northjaxpro]

Well, the recent EURO run is showing a stronger system, which in turn a stronger system would move it poleward much faster. I mentioned this earlier this morning in a post.. NHC sticking by EURO on this. I suppose the other major models will cave into the solution as time progresses.

[SFLcane]

Euro brings weak low onshore SFL..Some rain

[Aric Dunn]

Not buying the ne motion until the upper trough axis shows some sign of shifting.

It immediately elongates the circ and reforms it well to the ne. So until the sw flow kicks up... its not going to do that

[boca]

We actually might have a nice weekend if this pulls north away from South Florida.

[GCANE]

With the surface low tightening up, that cell over N Andros is starting to look real interesting.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,we have the real deal now and that is INVEST 98L.