Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

[northjaxpro]

Well defined 700 mb signature and as you mentioned GCANE, the 850 mb vort is just now forming along the North Coast of Cuba.

Things are shaping up pretty good for initial development of surface LLC as this treks into and through the Florida Straits beginning Friday.

This will be a very interesting system to monitor for these next several days through the weekend and possibly beyond.

I do not want to get too far ahead past the medium range (5-7 days) in this particular thread. We will be busy dealing with potential impacts, short and medium term, to Florida and SE U.S. Coast region during the next week.

Things really could get even more intriguing past 240 hours.
Long range guidance is potentially very interesting at 240 hours and beyond concerning this entity. It attempts to move this feature up along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. Lots to talk about with that, but I will save that discussion in the Global Models thread later on....

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Well defined 700 mb signature and as you mentioned GCANE, the 850 mb vort is just now forming along the North Coast of Cuba.

Things are shaping up pretty good for initial development of surface LLC as this treks into and through the Florida Straits beginning Friday.

This will be a very interesting system to monitor for these next several days through the weekend and possibly. beyond.

I do not want to get too far ahead past the medium range (5-7 days) in this particular thread. We will be busy dealing with potential impacts short tand medium term to Florida and SE U.S. Coast region during the next week.

Things really could get even more intriguing past 240 hours.
Long range guidance is potentially very interesting at 240 hours and beyond concerning this entity. It attempts to move this feature up along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. Lots to talk about with that, but I will save that discussion in the Global Models thread later on....

I would expect organizing at the surface to begin in the next 24 hours.. should see it boreline closed by then. As for track this depending on shear. Low to mid level steering would almost certainly bring it into the eastern gulf but with sw shear and the convection displaced seeing a gradual north motion is a good possibility as the steering current battle begins.

[northjaxpro]

Shear will take about 24-36 hours to slacken Aric. I am thinking the surface reflection will take shape by Thursday afternoon at the earliest . I suppose It could spin down sooner if shear abates faster than I anticipate.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear will take about 24-36 hours to slacken Aric. I am thinking the surface reflection will take shape by Thursday afternoon at the earliest . I suppose It could spin down sooner if shear abates faster than I anticipate.

The divergent shear setup is what is going to get this going. Should the convection going.

[SFLcane]

Once again if this develops it will be when its moving NE away from the US. Thus far sub tropics is the place to look at

[Aric Dunn]

Once again if this develops it will be when its moving NE away from the US. Thus far sub tropics is the place to look at

That wil depend on a number of factors.

[GCANE]

Numerous overshooting tops with associated cirrus layering north of Acklins Island

[SFLcane]

Once again if this develops it will be when its moving NE away from the US. Thus far sub tropics is the place to look at

That wil depend on a number of factors.

Conditions are quite hostile right now for development i can see this getting going next week as it moves out to sea.

[Kohlecane]

Hey guys, haven't really been on in a while, In terms of the GFS-Legacy, how has been the support of it?

[Aric Dunn]

I would watch near and south/Se of Andros island throughout the day for a gradual sharpening of the low level flow. Roght now its still fairly brisk. But it begins to slow down just se of andros.

[Florida1118]

An area of disturbed weather located over the central and northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days at it moves toward the Florida peninsula and then the southeastern United States.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Rain and more rain for Florida. No biggie

[Aric Dunn]

Rain and more rain for Florida. No biggie

So I guess that means you dont need to watch it any longer. Lol

[northjaxpro]

Shear will take about 24-36 hours to slacken Aric. I am thinking the surface reflection will take shape by Thursday afternoon at the earliest . I suppose It could spin down sooner if shear abates faster than I anticipate.

The divergent shear setup is what is going to get this going. Should the convection going.

Convecton will really get going beginning by mid afternoon today.
I am really anticpating the next DMAX later on...

[xironman]

I can see why it might not be a threat for FL but the model support for a storm off the SE coast is quite clear.

[Kazmit]

Is this the same system that the Euro and the GFS show developing a week from now between the east coast and Bermuda?

[crownweather]

Is this the same system that the Euro and the GFS show developing a week from now between the east coast and Bermuda?

Yes.

[xironman]

Is this the same system that the Euro and the GFS show developing a week from now between the east coast and Bermuda?

If you follow the 850 vorticity, it looks like it contributes

[cycloneye]

Is this the same system that the Euro and the GFS show developing a week from now between the east coast and Bermuda?

This is it.

[Aric Dunn]

The 06z euro is quite a bit more bullish with the vorticity in the next 12 to 15 hours. Goes from very little to closed at 850 mb. With a surface reflection ( weak) around the same time.

Typically systems in this setup have a tendency to develop faster then stayed sheared. TS into florida in the test 36 hours not out of the question. Many many cases like this.

Keep an eye out around andros today. Probably to the south or Se