Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

[boca]

Their is a circulation SE of Andros Island but it’s void of any convection.

[SFLcane]

Their is a circulation SE of Andros Island but it’s void of any convection.

Of course it is it’s 2019... What ever convection there was has really weakened just a batch of clouds now.

[LarryWx]

Their is a circulation SE of Andros Island but it’s void of any convection.

Of course it is it’s 2019... What ever convection there was has really weakened just a batch of clouds now.

Modelwise, it really wasn’t projected to do much at the very least till it got to the FL Straits.

[GCANE]

700mb vort is still firmly entrenched.

Biggest issue is a small ULL just SE of Andros

Thinking this may dissipate due to two factors
1) the ULL farther north moving out and
2) moisture from Cuba convection debris will help to fire convection into the ULL

Its a wait and see today.

[Aric Dunn]

Hard to be for sure. But looks like a broad low level rotation just south of andros

[Aric Dunn]

So everything except the euro takes it into the se gulf before shooting ne.. and well the legacy sort of.

Given the amount of ridging in place i am going tonhave shy away from the euro a little for now.

[boca]

The NHC has this not even making it to Florida and turning basically between the Bahamas and Florida.The worst weather in the Bahamas.

[Stormi]

700mb vort is still firmly entrenched.

Biggest issue is a small ULL just SE of Andros

Thinking this may dissipate due to two factors
1) the ULL farther north moving out and
2) moisture from Cuba convection debris will help to fire convection into the ULL

Its a wait and see today.


https://i.imgur.com/Hrqtljl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/irjT7kT.png

https://i.imgur.com/YS8thC5.png

Wow...I wouldn't be surprised if it dissipates - it seems uncomfortably ",squished" as of rn. We'll have to see if that changes.

[GCANE]

850, 700, 500mb vorts are starting to line up a bit.
Seeing a weak surface low on the north shore of Cuba
Outflow from the ULL in the Gulf is impeding strong convective development.
If we see an increase in convection in the GOM around the ULL, it could weaken it and help with development in the Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, first few morning images show a broad circ ssw of andros island associated with that line of convection near the cuba coast.

[Aric Dunn]

However rotating around the ne side of the broad turing just about to move over northern andros looks like a smaller vort with associated convection. This whole thing will be fun to watch to day.. becoming more interesting now...

[NDG]

700mb vort is still firmly entrenched.

Biggest issue is a small ULL just SE of Andros

Thinking this may dissipate due to two factors
1) the ULL farther north moving out and
2) moisture from Cuba convection debris will help to fire convection into the ULL

Its a wait and see today.


https://i.imgur.com/Hrqtljl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/irjT7kT.png

https://i.imgur.com/YS8thC5.png

Yep, the Euro has the low level vorticity interacting with the ULL/trough for at least the next 48 hours, so no big organization out of this until it moves away from the UL trough, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

As the sun rises more. Seeing sw inflow into that vort about to cross andros. Little more defined than I thought.

[northjaxpro]

700-850 mb steering pattern I feel will get this system into the extreme Southeast GOM. by Sunday.

This system willl stay weak or poorly organized imo as it treks across the Florida Straits into the weekend, The low level steering flow I think will get this system to just off shore SW Florida by Sunday, before finding the weakness as it turns and moves north and northeast.

NOW, if the system organizes stronger and faster than anticipated by Saturday, then I can see it turning north sooner.
Stronger system would feel the mid to upper flow better with the weakness.

[NDG]

For now is nothing more than a broad surface circulation developing, right underneath the UL vorticity h20, is what I see on vis satellite this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is coming along... slowly seeing more and west wsw to ne motion to the low level flow. If convection keeps doing whats its doing it will be much sooner..

Vort is becoming more defined near north part of andros. Convection building and expanding

[SFLcane]

In terms of FL the NHC does not have this going into the GOM or even the straits despite what the models say most of the weather if not all stays over the bahamas. It might develop on its way out to sea. Hot spot this year it seems

[GCANE]

850mb vort now directly south of Andros.
700mb vort east of that associated with convection.
Surface circulation is west of the 850mb vort, SW of Andros.
It is directly under 500mb vort.
Somewhat dry here.
Need to get something firing here for a spin up to start.

[ronjon]

Poorly organized and being sheared to death - expect the wave to move in low level flow to extreme SE GOM and then turn north. But really no models are developing it into anything but a weak low. Euro seems to be out on a limb by itself. The hostile conditions continue for Atlantic Basin for now.

[wxman57]

Looks like the GFS splits the system. Part of it enters the eastern Gulf, where development appears quite unlikely. The other part tracks NNW up the coast to the Outer Banks of NC then accelerates out to sea as per Chantal. That's when it will have the best shot at developing - as it's heading out to sea next Tue-Thu. I don't see much happening until then.