Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L
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SFLcane
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
It could be a nice weekend come to look at it as most of the weather should stay over the bahamas.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
SFLcane wrote:It could be a nice weekend come to look at it as most of the weather should stay over the bahamas.
https://i.imgur.com/In6OwlI.png
I agree with you why would this area head west we haven’t had a Bermuda high all summer.
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tolakram
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
GFS-Legacy has a similar solution to the Euro for the next 5 days.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Afternoon landheating and subsequent seabreezes over cuba will liky aid in the low level vorticity later. The reason watching near andros island for the trough to sharpen..
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
12z rgem (and the other mesoscale models) are likely very close to what will actually happen over the next 12 to 24 hours..
You can see in all of them the seabreezes over cuba (not the first time such a thing has happened) intiating the low level circ very near cuba starting later this afternoon. And then overnight convection essentially takes over farther north and off we go.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=-42
You can see in all of them the seabreezes over cuba (not the first time such a thing has happened) intiating the low level circ very near cuba starting later this afternoon. And then overnight convection essentially takes over farther north and off we go.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=-42
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cycloneye
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Re: Area in the Bahamas - 98L is up
Ok folks,let's move to the active invests forum as the thread for Invest 98L is up.
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cycloneye
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
This thread reopens for comments until further notice.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Too early to tell what will happen with this system. A recurve seems most likely, though nothing is guaranteed at this timeframe. Development may not even occur as suggested by the latest models, but these types of systems are tough for models to forecast. It's late August so it will need to be watched.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: Area in the Bahamas
CyclonicFury wrote:Too early to tell what will happen with this system. A recurve seems most likely, though nothing is guaranteed at this timeframe. Development may not even occur as suggested by the latest models, but these types of systems are tough for models to forecast. It's late August so it will need to be watched.
Kind of looks like Chantal 2.0. But if it can somehow wrap up its vorticity off the coast of FL instead of dragging it over the state it might develop sooner.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
No development with the Euro this run, which seems the most likely outcome as it's joined the GFS as nothing more than a phantom storm generator.
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crownweather
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Hammy wrote:No development with the Euro this run, which seems the most likely outcome as it's joined the GFS as nothing more than a phantom storm generator.
EPS still likes the development chances. Lots of members still on board.
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Rob Lightbown
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
UL trough is diminishing.
ULL just north of Grand Bahama island.
ULL is forecast to start moving NE.
ULL just north of Grand Bahama island.
ULL is forecast to start moving NE.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Convection firing over Cuba.
Looks like debris from the east end of the island will drift into the MCS and likely support development.
Looks like debris from the east end of the island will drift into the MCS and likely support development.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Man the vorticity/low on the 12z euro is soo close to getting trapped in the eastern gulf.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
crownweather wrote:Hammy wrote:No development with the Euro this run, which seems the most likely outcome as it's joined the GFS as nothing more than a phantom storm generator.
EPS still likes the development chances. Lots of members still on board.
https://i.imgur.com/odkMPLy.png
Wasn't that the case with the Gulf system that wasn't though? I'm not putting a whole lot of faith in the models at the moment.
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AtlanticWind
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
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crownweather
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
Hammy wrote:crownweather wrote:Hammy wrote:No development with the Euro this run, which seems the most likely outcome as it's joined the GFS as nothing more than a phantom storm generator.
EPS still likes the development chances. Lots of members still on board.
https://i.imgur.com/odkMPLy.png
Wasn't that the case with the Gulf system that wasn't though? I'm not putting a whole lot of faith in the models at the moment.
And the EPS is still showing some members spinning something up near the Louisiana coast this weekend. So, there's that....
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
There is a lot more curvature to the low level wind field.
Se wind on the east side and ne to n winds west of the axis which is just se of andros island. Local seabreezes have started to help get the vorticity into the low level.
Earlier this morning it was nothing but straight strong se winds.
Se wind on the east side and ne to n winds west of the axis which is just se of andros island. Local seabreezes have started to help get the vorticity into the low level.
Earlier this morning it was nothing but straight strong se winds.
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cycloneye
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Area in the Bahamas
This is the area I would be watching.. as mentioned why earlier.
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