Continuing GOM Watch

[northjaxpro]

The disturbance continues to fend off that dry air admirably.This hss been the chief factor for its continued development thus far this evening.

It has continued to sustain convection and is even trying to wrap convection to fill in the west side of the circulation.

I said it earlirr this evening I thought this is not only invest worthy nie, but late this evening's satellite presentation for me could easily support this being a TD now..

This is an impressive disturbance which has.performed well considering that it did not have initial model support for development of where it is currently.

[Hurricaneman]

The disturbance continues to fend off that dry air admirably.This hss been the chief factor for its continued development thus far this evening.

It has continued to sustain convection and is even trying to wrap convection to fill in the erst side of the circulation.

I said it earlirr this evening I thought this is not only invest worthy nie, but late this evening's satellite presentation for me could easily support this being a TD now..

This is an impressive disturbance which hasdonr well condidering that it did not hsve initial model support for development of where it is urrently.

Definitely if not named at least a depression or storm would be a good candidate for post season analysis

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not seeing any evidence of a pressure drop on the buoys in the area.

[Aric Dunn]

Not impossible we see a brief TC develop out of this. Reminds me of TS Emily in 2017 that formed quite literally out of nowhere in the GOMEX overnight.

Same general set up too. Wouldn't surprise me.

by all data it is at least a TD... doppler velocities are in the TS range but above the surface. without data at the surface closer to the llc. we cant be for sure.

but if history tells us anything. given the convective pattern .. in all likelihood those winds are reaching the surface.

[northjaxpro]

Also, the disturbance has not moved much, if at all fhis evening,.meandering in very weak steering currently. It is sitting about 60 miles off shore SSW of Panana City..

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is obviously an issue. but we have all seen systems more sheared that this classified.

nothing like waiting till its inland.. though lol


and before anyone says it... yes its pulsing down at the moment that is the nature of a sheared environment.


Also.. looking at the curved bands and tracking the center... of course hard to say but it looks like it moved NW lol well drifted.. but very little movement overall as jax mentioned.

[Aric Dunn]

and the thing about the dry air.... well there is sooo much moist air to the south of this thing being pulled in..

[NDG]

NW shear is still an issue with it, COC is just a few miles SSW of PCB.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like it'll move inland before it gets a chance to spinup.

[Aric Dunn]

Center is here.. pretty much the same location it has been for the last 8 to 10 hours.. very little motion.

It has been pulled around by the convection. Steering is diverse. Low level flow is ene .. mid level is rather weak.. so each convective burst it is getting pulled back.

assuming it maintains it should still be well offshore in the am..

biggest issue of course is shear. just have to to wait and see how it plays out.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like it'll move inland before it gets a chance to spinup.

Yep, this thing isn’t “stalled”, 30kts of shear decoupled the Coc from shower activity, pressures are rising. Look somewhere else for td 4 or Chantal.

[DioBrando]

It'll crash into land without doing anything significant.... nah fam. NEXT.

[NDG]

Naked swirl now.

[Aric Dunn]

Naked swirl now.

https://i.imgur.com/qh7F6d4.gif

your point ? its been naked multiple times... its the nature of a sheared TC. lol

[NDG]

Naked swirl now.

https://i.imgur.com/qh7F6d4.gif

your point ? its been naked multiple times... its the nature of a sheared TC. lol

That it is naked now, can't I post about that? What is your point?

[psyclone]

Looks to have degraded about as rapidly as it organized.

[Monsoonjr99]

Yes, it's getting sheared to death now. Seems like another TD 3, except without the designation this time.

[NDG]

Looks to have degraded about as rapidly as it organized.

The reason why it didn't even get mentioned by the experts at the NHC on its TWO.

[northjaxpro]

The degrade happened extremely fast..Proof positive how fast things can change with.the tropics. They earn their keep.honestly down.at NHC.for sure!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Got shredded to pieces. Nothing left but some light rain being sheared away.