How many named storms will form in September?

[cycloneye]

Ok those last minute peeps,you have less than an hour to vote.

[Buck]

I think at least 5 named storms.

[cycloneye]

Poll has closed for voting but you can post to make comments.The options four and five ended in a tie with 24%. Let's see in real time how many form in this month.

[Monsoonjr99]

After how this post went and my vote in this poll being back when everyone was generally bearish from the models, time to do another early-month post about what if I could change my vote.

After two storms already forming this month and conditions looking favorable, I'd now go with a solid six named storms in September. I don't expect 92L to form, but I do think the currently-watched wave departing Africa could become something big. Then I suppose it's just watching existing storms until another burst of 3 named storms arriving sometime in the second half of the month.

My post in the August thread somehow nailed what actually happened. I wonder if I get that lucky again!

[NDG]

My forecast of 7 named storms to form during September is looking pretty good,

[Hammy]

My forecast of three is likely going to bust by next week.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

7-8

[CyclonicFury]

With the formation of Lorenzo, we have seen 7 named storms form in September so far. It's not likely, but there is an outside chance we finish with 8 if the 10/20 AOI over the Gulf of Mexico develops. If we reach 8 named storms, that ties the all-time record for most named storm formations in a September, tying 2002 and 2010.

[northjaxpro]

With the formation of Lorenzo, we have seen 7 named storms form in September so far. It's not likely, but there is an outside chance we finish with 8 if the 10/20 AOI over the Gulf of Mexico develops. If we reach 8 named storms, that ties the all-time record for most named storm formations in a September, tying 2002 and 2010.

I think this will happen. I think the GOM disturbance will develop into a named storm before it landfalls into Mexico by this weekend.

[norva13x]

With the formation of Lorenzo, we have seen 7 named storms form in September so far. It's not likely, but there is an outside chance we finish with 8 if the 10/20 AOI over the Gulf of Mexico develops. If we reach 8 named storms, that ties the all-time record for most named storm formations in a September, tying 2002 and 2010.

But I was told in August the season was cancelled?

[CyclonicFury]

With the formation of Lorenzo, we have seen 7 named storms form in September so far. It's not likely, but there is an outside chance we finish with 8 if the 10/20 AOI over the Gulf of Mexico develops. If we reach 8 named storms, that ties the all-time record for most named storm formations in a September, tying 2002 and 2010.

But I was told in August the season was cancelled?

2019 proves that the early part of the season being quiet means absolutely nothing for what the peak of the season holds. We have gone from 2 named storms on August 20 to 12 on September 23. The peak of the season should not be underestimated.

[psyclone]

This is keeping with the trend of increasingly backloaded seasons too. October is likely to be productive. in a matter of a few weeks we've gone from season cancel conditions to...Just how much above normal is the season likely to end up? The problem with backloaded seasons (especially October) is the systems can escalate quickly and frequently form in areas where landfall is almost impossible to avoid.

[SconnieCane]

This is keeping with the trend of increasingly backloaded seasons too. October is likely to be productive. in a matter of a few weeks we've gone from season cancel conditions to...Just how much above normal is the season likely to end up? The problem with backloaded seasons (especially October) is the systems can escalate quickly and frequently form in areas where landfall is almost impossible to avoid.

Case in point, Michael. It's just a footnote to the devastation of 2017 (in the US), but Nate also formed out of a similar setup and had generally favorable conditions to work with. It just moved too darn fast to really tighten its core up. We could be looking at three straight Octobers with a Gulf Coast landfalling hurricane of Caribbean origin.

[Hammy]

This is keeping with the trend of increasingly backloaded seasons too. October is likely to be productive. in a matter of a few weeks we've gone from season cancel conditions to...Just how much above normal is the season likely to end up? The problem with backloaded seasons (especially October) is the systems can escalate quickly and frequently form in areas where landfall is almost impossible to avoid.

Case in point, Michael. It's just a footnote to the devastation of 2017 (in the US), but Nate also formed out of a similar setup and had generally favorable conditions to work with. It just moved too darn fast to really tighten its core up. We could be looking at three straight Octobers with a Gulf Coast landfalling hurricane of Caribbean origin.

If I remember correctly Nate also had another low pressure system to the west that was elongating the circulation a bit and preventing good wrapping (and likely also contributed to the fast forward speed)

[Shell Mound]

Verification: seven tropical storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes formed in September 2019.

[plasticup]

Verification: seven tropical storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes formed in September 2019.

To be clear, those counts are inclusive of each other (i.e. 7 TS, of which 3 were H, of which 2 were M).