How many named storms will form in September?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:34 pm

Now that August is almost over,let's have the poll for September and let's see if the poll gets a lot of votes as the voting will last until August 31rst at 1:34 PM EDT and also because August has been inactive,there is much anticipation to what September will bring.

DioBrando · #2 Postby **DioBrando** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:36 pm

1. Yes literally. Really disappointed.
My heart says 6 named storms (up to Imelda or Jerry) and my head says 1.
I have to go with my head this time. I can't keep looking the other way.

Hurricaneman · #3 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:48 pm

Said 6 because I believe when the lid comes off it will go bonkers

DioBrando · #4 Postby **DioBrando** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:46 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Said 6 because I believe when the lid comes off it will go bonkers

I really do see 6 named storms forming in September. I do think the gate will open. However in this poll I put 1 out of pure frustration.

Kazmit · #5 Postby **Kazmit** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:51 pm

Zero isn’t an option... but at this point I think some would be voting for that.

CyclonicFury · #6 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:51 pm

Voted four because you have to believe climatology will cause an uptick eventually, regardless of current conditions. However, apparently this August climatology doesn't matter with how dead it has been.

sunnyday · #7 Postby **sunnyday** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:51 pm

I am expecting no named storms in September. Just a very strong feeling....

Hammy · #8 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:04 pm

Voted three, thinking 3-5 range depending on when (and if) the MDR properly gets going.

ElectricStorm · #9 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:04 pm

I'm going with 4. I expect at least a small uptick in activity but not an explosive month

Ubuntwo · #10 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:09 pm

Three. I think the "switch" will flip extremely late, mid-September or so. As a result we'll miss the climo peak and the season will be extremely backloaded. I'd wager around four in October then maybe one in November. Final I'm guessing 9/6/3.

DioBrando · #11 Postby **DioBrando** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:13 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:Three. I think the "switch" will flip extremely late, mid-September or so. As a result we'll miss the climo peak and the season will be extremely backloaded. I'd wager around four in October then maybe one in November. Final I'm guessing 9/6/3.

Does this include Barry and Andrea

Ubuntwo · #12 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:17 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Three. I think the "switch" will flip extremely late, mid-September or so. As a result we'll miss the climo peak and the season will be extremely backloaded. I'd wager around four in October then maybe one in November. Final I'm guessing 9/6/3.

Does this include Barry and Andrea

yes

#13 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:28 pm

Hammy wrote:Voted three, thinking 3-5 range depending on when (and if) the MDR properly gets going.

I agree with you, Hammy. Less than 10 for the season total.

DioBrando · #14 Postby **DioBrando** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Voted three, thinking 3-5 range depending on when (and if) the MDR properly gets going.

I agree with you, Hammy. Less than 10 for the season total.

No Karen? -_-

DioBrando · #15 Postby **DioBrando** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:34 pm

Honestly people are going to be out and about saying humberto will form on december 25th at this rate

#16 Postby **toad strangler** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:41 pm

In less than a week DioBrando went from one extreme to another lol

Love this place

I live in a place that can have its whole world turned upside down with one blow to the jaw. So I don’t fret on seasonal or monthly numbers. I observe with a wary eye until November ish

DioBrando · #17 Postby **DioBrando** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:44 pm

toad strangler wrote:In less than a week DioBrando went from one extreme to another lol

Love this place

That's because I'm so frustrated with season cancel posts. Honestly, the shear/SST models are pretty favourable, but users are claiming that we'll see about seven named storms and we'll get another 2013? I hate making decisions with my heart too much.

Ubuntwo · #18 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Voted three, thinking 3-5 range depending on when (and if) the MDR properly gets going.

I agree with you, Hammy. Less than 10 for the season total.

Probably. I expect activity to start in the latter third of September, after the climo peak.

#19 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:56 pm

Despite how unusually dead has been this season due to SAL and shear thus far, I have been around too long to even think that September will be in a slumber for activity all month long. Vlimatology will figue into this eventually, and. I have to believe that the basin will yield at least 3 named systems for the month. However, Mother Nature has been giving us curve balls aplenty with the North Atlantic basin thus far . Oh well, we shall see what shakes down
..

I am also agreeing with those thinking that the season could get backloaded with activity.in October as well.

DioBrando · #20 Postby **DioBrando** » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:58 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Despite how unusually dead this season due to SAL and shear thus far, I have been around too long to even think that September will be in a slumber for activity all month long. Vlimatology will figue into this eventually, and. I have to believe that the basin will yield at least 3 named systems for the month. However, Mother Nature has been giving us curve balls aplenty with the North Atlantuc basin thus far . Oh well, we shall see what shakes down
..

I am also agreeing with those thinking that the seaon could get backloaded with activity.in October as well.

A more active October than September, then?