Thoughts on the rest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

[DioBrando]

Since the peak is approaching and we haven't had anything since the middle of July with Barry, I want to know YOUR thoughts for the rest of the season.
Would the floodgates open? Would we exceed or go below expectations set out by professionals?

[DioBrando]

Honestly, I'm getting rather impatient waiting for Chantal to form.
The shear has been relentless.
In an area of light shear... OH NO! It's dry air.
Then the waves keep on moving out of Africa too far north.

Honestly, I was so optimistic the floodgates will open but after hearing many people season cancelling, even the most optimistic users, I might as well jump on the bandwagon.

[NotSparta]

Dead season, nothing will ever form again

[DioBrando]

Dead season, nothing will ever form again

Is this a joke?

[zal0phus]

I anticipate one of two things- either we're going to have a laughably dead season with no majors like an even worse 2013, or something similar to 1998 where activity doesn't pick up until around the end of September but still has several strong majors. Activity would be focused in the Gulf either way I think.
I think the first scenario is more likely, so I'm just as disappointed. I wonder if last year was the end of the AMO+ epoch.

[DioBrando]

I anticipate one of two things- either we're going to have a laughably dead season with no majors like an even worse 2013, or something similar to 1998 where activity doesn't pick up until around the end of September but still has several strong majors. Activity would be focused in the Gulf either way I think.
I think the first scenario is more likely, so I'm just as disappointed. I wonder if last year was the end of the AMO+ epoch.

I can't have that, this year uses my favourite naming list. It even has my own name on it, but it's highly unlikely we'll get all the way to the middle. Do I really want to have to wait until I'm 29?

[DioBrando]

Just gonna drop this here:
August: None
September: Chantal (TS), Dorian (3), Erin (TS), Fernand (1)
October: Gabrielle (TS), Humberto (I meant greedy guts) (4), Imelda (2)
November: Jerry (1)

That's purely based on the models' forecasts.
That 4 I've put down as my prediction would probably hog all the warm SSTs and OHC for itself. There would probably be a huge lull afterwards until near Halloween.
That 3 would probably just peak at 3 like that 2014 hurricane.
That Cat 2 after the Cat 4 I posted will likely be some GOM storm.
Jerry might be floating about in the middle of the Atlantic for a long time in late November. Think of Nicole.

That's what I envision but I could be VERY WRONG.

[Kingarabian]

So if we can get some EPAC action in the next 5 days, I feel like there will be a good chance we get a backloaded Atlantic hurricane season because in theory, favorable atmospheric conditions should begin to take over the Atlantic by late August and September.

[DioBrando]

So if we can get some EPAC action in the next 5 days, I feel like there will be a good chance we get a backloaded Atlantic hurricane season because in theory, favorable atmospheric conditions should begin to take over the Atlantic by late August and September.

W A H E Y

It does look like the EPAC is having it's moment to shine now.

[NotSparta]

So if we can get some EPAC action in the next 5 days, I feel like there will be a good chance we get a backloaded Atlantic hurricane season because in theory, favorable atmospheric conditions should begin to take over the Atlantic by late August and September.

Also, if the easterly shear plaguing EPAC systems can weaken, it would mean lower shear in the Atlantic, as the weakening shear in the Pacific means a weaker ridge in the Midwest, then leading to less upper troughing in the Caribbean, and a weaker TUTT.

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s how I envision the rest of the season
Landfalls in caps and location

August: CHANTAL (Ts 50mph) Houston Tx

September: Dorian TS 60mph
Erin H1 80mph
FERNAND: H3 125mph Bermuda
Gabrielle H1 75mph
HUMBERTO: H2 100mph Miami, Florida
IMELDA: Ts 70mph Belize

October
Jerry: H1 80mph
Karen: Ts 60mph
LORENZO h5 180mph between Ft Myers, Florida
Melissa: H1 80mph
NESTOR: H3 125mph Cuba

November
Olga: H1 80mph

[DioBrando]

Here’s how I envision the rest of the season
Landfalls in caps and location

August: CHANTAL (Ts 50mph) Houston Tx

September: Dorian TS 60mph
Erin H1 80mph
FERNAND: H3 125mph Bermuda
Gabrielle H1 75mph
HUMBERTO: H2 100mph Miami, Florida
IMELDA: Ts 70mph Belize

October
Jerry: H1 80mph
Karen: Ts 60mph
LORENZO h5 180mph between Ft Myers, Florida
Melissa: H1 80mph
NESTOR: H3 125mph Cuba

November
Olga: H1 80mph

Wow! :O That Cat 5 is giving me the chills!
Who do you think would be getting kicked out then, based on your envisionment?

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s how I envision the rest of the season
Landfalls in caps and location

August: CHANTAL (Ts 50mph) Houston Tx

September: Dorian TS 60mph
Erin H1 80mph
FERNAND: H3 125mph Bermuda
Gabrielle H1 75mph
HUMBERTO: H2 100mph Miami, Florida
IMELDA: Ts 70mph Belize

October
Jerry: H1 80mph
Karen: Ts 60mph
LORENZO h5 180mph between Ft Myers, Florida
Melissa: H1 80mph
NESTOR: H3 125mph Cuba

November
Olga: H1 80mph

Wow! :O That Cat 5 is giving me the chills!
Who do you think would be getting kicked out then, based on your envisionment?

Most likely would be a 2 or 3 at landfall not at peak

[Chris90]

I definitely don't think my contest numbers of 16/9/5 are going to verify, I think I shot too high and should have stuck closer to my original numbers of 12/7/2.
Still, I'm not ready to season cancel yet. I think September and October are going to be decently active.
I think we'll have 1-2 majors that traverse those warm waters between 20-35N, with increased landfall/eyewall impact potential for the Bahamas, east coast US, and Bermuda.
I also think we'll get an October major down in the western Caribbean, the waters have been boiling there all summer, heat content is always explosive down there, but it's been even higher than average this year.

[CyclonicFury]

Considering even the most hostile seasons (such as 1983 and 2013) had an uptick at some point, it's hard to imagine 2019 won't as well. The extent of the uptick is what is in question. It's certainly possible, if not likely, we get 1-3 major hurricanes after August. In order for 2019 to be an above average season, it would likely require well above normal ACE for September and October.

Even if we had 9 named storms between now and the end of the season, we still would only have 11. Exceeding 15 NS is going to be difficult this year (and I'm not sure why NOAA went up to 17 NS in their range, that would require 15 NS from this point on).

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe we are on pace for one of the slowest seasons in history. May get a few more tropical storms.

[NotSparta]

I believe we are on pace for one of the slowest seasons in history. May get a few more tropical storms.

Based on what?

[CyclonicFury]

I believe we are on pace for one of the slowest seasons in history. May get a few more tropical storms.

So you aren't expecting any more hurricanes for the rest of the season?

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe we are on pace for one of the slowest seasons in history. May get a few more tropical storms.

Based on what?

Gut feeling and the fact that it seems like hostile conditions are continuing to prevail in the Atlantic and even in the Eastern Pacific. I could definitely be wrong and this is based mostly on gut feeling, as mentioned. We shall see.

[DioBrando]

I believe we are on pace for one of the slowest seasons in history. May get a few more tropical storms.

heh