Hammy wrote:I'm increasingly leaning towards nothing forming in the MDR this year given the waves just can't seem to come off at a reasonable latitude--the Euro is continuing to show the usual strong right on time waves but then turns them NW as they come off. No amount of favorable rising motion, upper winds, or moisture entering the basin is going to matter if they're coming off over water that is too cold.
Irma, Florence, and those lot came off at pretty high latitudes though.
We will be getting favourable rising motion according to even the most conservative of models. You heard that? Even the most conservative European models. Huzzah!
Upper winds are improving.
This could very well end up with the strongest storms forming in October, and basically this season behaving as if there is a "1 month delay" to the typical season. So think of August as a typical July (with all the SAL outbreaks), etc. It's currently behaving in a pattern where the atmosphere thinks we're in July. So September might have August-like activity, and October might very well have the most intense storms. I am currently envisioning a sharp increase in named storms, and a sudden plummet about November.
I still think we'll get past at least the K or L names. Most likely L.
There's a reason why NOAA increased their forecast. There's a reason now why everyone is saying it will become back-loaded. Especially exiting a Modoki.
Many are so pessimistic because we're getting spoiled by heavy activity back in the Noughties, but since 2013 it has been either slow (2013, 2014) or very backloaded (2016, 2018)
We're definitely not in a 2013, or a 1983, and we're not in a Nino right now.
With the waves actually improving (and the models actually prove it) the MDR
ACTUALLY could become more favourable. There's just still plenty of dry air out at the moment and it honestly needs to go. Water isn't even that cold either.
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