Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands= Is INVEST 99L

[USTropics]

Interesting trend, each of the past 4 runs has moved the time table up of this impacting the islands:

[Siker]

Interesting trend, each of the past 4 runs has moved the time table up of this impacting the islands:

Yes, appears the past few runs have it increasingly riding the leading edge of the SAL push behind it rather than piddling around in the monsoon trough and getting overtaken by SAL.

[NDG]

Time for the NHC mention this TW on their next TWO, now that the GFS is starting to get some Euro support.

[gatorcane]

And yet again we see the models (the GFS this time) go from something not that significant to significant in one run. The upgraded models have not been that good so far in 2019 to be honest.

The 06Z run below while the 00Z has basically nada and much further east:

[NDG]

Looking at the last few runs of the GFS it will make a big difference the forward speed of this disturbance, if it moves steadily west like the latest 06z GFS shows it will take advantage of very good UL winds before a possible ULL drops down north of the Lesser Antilles in a few days, if it makes that northern loop before that more westward heading begins like its past runs were showing every so often and like the latest Euro shows, it will be running into the possible ULL thus into windshear.

[DioBrando]

heh

[Aric Dunn]

Ummm.. i think its safe to say that dry air is somehow not much of an issue with this system.... and the NHC should be increasing chances. And an actual invest later should be in order.

Obviously still partially attached to itcz but given the structure and convective pattern it wont take long.

Again good job for the gfs on this one.

[cycloneye]

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