Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands= Is INVEST 99L

[HurricaneEnzo]

Not much convection to speak of around the center. Sometimes these waves can beat SAL to their North if they are able to pull moisture from the ITCZ to the South but doesn't appear much of that is going on. Pretty dry all around. This wave is gonna have a tough time maybe development down the road if the circ holds together.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS has done a great job with this system. even the timing of this convective burst. looking better this evening and with that convection shows things are at least marginal. needs to be watched.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[Hammy]

This is one of those systems that probably would've been upped to a short-lived depression in the early 2000s--there were a few systems that seemed like they were upgraded solely on the basis of satellite presentation but were still tangled up in the ITCZ when it came to surface circulation.

[brohavwx]

This is one of those systems that probably would've been upped to a short-lived depression in the early 2000s--there were a few systems that seemed like they were upgraded solely on the basis of satellite presentation but were still tangled up in the ITCZ when it came to surface circulation.

That may be so but this season is anything but a typical season and this bit of disturbed weather, with an obvious cyclonic turn to it, is something that I in Barbados will have to keep an eye on. Not to mention that the GFS (and the ECMWF for maybe one run) had a Low forming up mid-tropical-Atlantic a day or so ago, right where this is right now or close, and had it running all the way through to us in the Southern Windward islands, but then fizzled out, maybe it wasn't that far off and who knows what can happen over the next few days ... the deep Tropics (< 15N) seems to give the models trouble even with the new GOES-16 higher-res data, which probably will still need a while to get settled.

What else do we have out there (5-15N; 20-60W) to give some REAL data ... maybe one or two Buoys and a few Ships running from weather ... to correlate back with the satellite sensor data with a higher Tropopause, etc.?

[Hammy]

This is one of those systems that probably would've been upped to a short-lived depression in the early 2000s--there were a few systems that seemed like they were upgraded solely on the basis of satellite presentation but were still tangled up in the ITCZ when it came to surface circulation.

That may be so but this season is anything but a typical season and this bit of disturbed weather, with an obvious cyclonic turn to it, is something that I in Barbados will have to keep an eye on. Not to mention that the GFS (and the ECMWF for maybe one run) had a Low forming up mid-tropical-Atlantic a day or so ago, right where this is right now or close, and had it running all the way through to us in the Southern Windward islands, but then fizzled out, maybe it wasn't that far off and who knows what can happen over the next few days ... the deep Tropics (< 15N) seems to give the models trouble even with the new GOES-16 higher-res data, which probably will still need a while to get settled.

What else do we have out there (5-15N; 20-60W) to give some REAL data ... maybe one or two Buoys and a few Ships running from weather ... to correlate back with the satellite sensor data with a higher Tropopause, etc.?

It certainly bears watching but it the overall setup gives me June/July vibes, not late August. Either way this could be one of those things that fizzles in a day as it gets reabsorbed into the monsoon trough, or could be small enough to spin up without the models detecting.

[galaxy401]

Still no mention by the NHC in their outlooks.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1164692270714630146

[AutoPenalti]

Losing convection by the hour, that dry air isn’t helping and it’s going to run into some heavy shear.

[gatorcane]

Still no mention by the NHC in their outlooks.

A bit surprised given the GFS shows some development and it is looking more organized.

[NDG]

Still no mention by the NHC in their outlooks.

A bit surprised given the GFS shows some development and it is looking more organized.

If they are waiting for the Euro to show it it will never happen, it has been horrible with TWs in the deep tropical Atlantic this year so far.

[abajan]

Losing convection by the hour, that dry air isn’t helping and it’s going to run into some heavy shear.

It's certainly not losing convection now. And there ain't exactly a whole lot of shear ahead of it either IMO.

[abajan]

Still no mention by the NHC in their outlooks.

A bit surprised given the GFS shows some development and it is looking more organized.

I think they'll mention it in the 8 AM.

[Astromanía]

Losing convection by the hour, that dry air isn’t helping and it’s going to run into some heavy shear.

It's certainly not losing convection now. And there ain't exactly a whole lot of shear ahead of it either IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/g6OgEzY.gif

Those clouds at the center are making a face, da heck?

[jconsor]

ECMWF still doesn't develop this system, but is getting closer to doing so.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1164784844422778880

[USTropics]

Impressive building of convection this evening:


So far its done a good job of staying right around or below 10N, any more north and there's a boundary of dry air waiting that you can see in abajan's loop. This has eroded the NE flank of the wave:


CIMSS vort charts show most the forcing in the mid-levels currently, with an elongated area at 850mb. However, if there's a tiny core developing like the GFS suggests, it's hard to register in those products:


The low-res 00z ECMWF faintly displays a low-level vort signature and evident cyclonic turning at 48 hours (as indicated by the wind barbs), so may be looking at a 48 hour window to develop before its modeled to lift north:

[USTropics]

A few of the 00z ECMWF ensembles are showing development of this wave now:

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles:

[USTropics]

Still a bit elongated on first visible frames, but evident cyclonic turning:

[shiny-pebble]

06z GFS has a TS/Minimal Hurricane into the islands

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