2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

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CrazyC83
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2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:56 pm

This may not be the best time to discuss this, but it's pretty much a sure bet now we will need a new D name for the 2025 list.

(Updated since both 2019 and 2020 names will be announced in 2021)
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#2 Postby DioBrando » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:59 pm

Honestly, I'd say Dante, Diego, given the overall vibe of the name list.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#3 Postby Torino » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This may not be the best time to discuss this, but it's pretty much a sure bet now we will need a new D name for the 2025 list.


Definitely.
I'd choose Dylan, Damien/an or Dalton to replace Dorian.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Torino wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This may not be the best time to discuss this, but it's pretty much a sure bet now we will need a new D name for the 2025 list.


Definitely.
I'd choose Dylan, Damien/an or Dalton to replace Dorian.


Dylan sounds like a good one.

Assuming Dorian is retired, regardless of what happens the rest of the way, there will only be one season this decade (2014) with no retired names, the first decade to retire names in 9 out of 10 years.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#5 Postby DioBrando » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:25 pm

Why Dante?

The Bahamas is most likely going to make the case.
Each naming list does have a subtle theme to them. This year's list seems to go down a contemporary (Gen X and later), diverse and urban route. The replacement names for this list historically have also reflected this feel.
Dante is a name common among Caribbean populations, sounds like something Anglo-Caribbean countries might pick (and it'll go well with Hispanophone countries too) and will fit in well with this list more than any other Atlantic list, so Dante is my first choice.

Dorian is a name most common among Gen Z (mean year of birth is around 2000) so a replacement name COULD be similar generation-wise.

Other names that I think would be considered (ordered in likelihood of being chosen:

Diego
Dylan
Dalton
Damien
Deshawn (if Bahamas is making the case this will be more likely)
Derek
Declan (Classic English-sounding names might be used)
Donovan
Darius
Drew

So lemme split them up by country.
If the Bahamas makes the case:
Dante
Dalton
Deshawn
Declan

If the US makes the case
Dylan
Dustin
Derek
Donovan
Diego?

I would say DANTE is the most likely option at this point but all could change.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:17 pm

We make no headway on the originals from List 5 though, since Barry, Chantal and Erin should all be back in 2025.

Then again, we still have a long way to go...
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#7 Postby BadLarry95 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:03 am

Andrea- 0% (weak, brief, no effects)
Barry- 2% (Louisiana has seen way worse)
Chantal- 0% (same as Andrea)
Dorian- 100% (unparalleled 3 day bashing and catastrophic devastation of the northern Bahamas) Replacement: Denzel
Erin- 0% (see Andrea and Chantal)
Fernand- 5% (moderate impacts in Mexico, but there’s been much worse)
Gabrielle- 0% (no land impact)
Humberto- 15% (Damaged Bermuda but not a Fabian)
Imelda- 50% (major flooding event)
Jerry- 0% (no land impact
Karen- 1% (she’d like to talk to the nhc director)
Lorenzo- 25% (Cat 5/sank ship. Minimal impact)
Melissa- 2% (minimal impact
Nestor- 2% (short lived and forgettable)
Olga- 2% (see Nestor)
Pablo- 0% (minimal impact)
Rebekah- 0% (no land impact)
Sebastian- 0% (see Rebekah)
Last edited by BadLarry95 on Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:04 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#8 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:We make no headway on the originals from List 5 though, since Barry, Chantal and Erin should all be back in 2025.

Then again, we still have a long way to go...


With only 11 names remaining, and most are either in the early part or the final part, you would need a season with a quieter start to get something like what we saw with Dorian. There are four early names remaining and two middle ones . Gabrielle might be a fish so Jerry or Karen are our best chances for the rest of the season. The rest of the original names are Pablo, Sebastien and beyond
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#9 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:31 pm

DioBrando wrote:Why Dante?

The Bahamas is most likely going to make the case.
Each naming list does have a subtle theme to them. This year's list seems to go down a contemporary (Gen X and later), diverse and urban route. The replacement names for this list historically have also reflected this feel.
Dante is a name common among Caribbean populations, sounds like something Anglo-Caribbean countries might pick (and it'll go well with Hispanophone countries too) and will fit in well with this list more than any other Atlantic list, so Dante is my first choice.

Dorian is a name most common among Gen Z (mean year of birth is around 2000) so a replacement name COULD be similar generation-wise.

So lemme split them up by country.
If the Bahamas makes the case:
Dante
Dalton
Deshawn
Declan

If the US makes the case
Dylan
Dustin
Derek
Donovan
Diego?

I would say DANTE is the most likely option at this point but all could change.


The people who put together the list of suggested replacements when they ask for a name to be retired are not likely to be people who are interested in names or naming or who have any idea what the names popular in younger generations are. They are likely to be male meteorologists in their 50s and 60s. As such I doubt if Dante or Deshawn will be suggested as replacements.

The male members of the Bahamas Parliament whose first names start with "D" are named Desmond, Darren, Dionisio, Donald, and Duane. One of those or something similar is likely to be suggested as a replacement instead of something like Dante, Deshawn, or Deandre.

Dorian was suggested as a replacement for Dean by France in 2008. Dorian was a very common name for babies born in France in the 1990s, peaking in use there around the year 2000. I think that French culture pays more attention to its own fashions, especially those in baby names, more than English speaking cultures do.
Last edited by Cleveland Kent Evans on Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#10 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:35 pm

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:
DioBrando wrote:Why Dante?

The Bahamas is most likely going to make the case.
Each naming list does have a subtle theme to them. This year's list seems to go down a contemporary (Gen X and later), diverse and urban route. The replacement names for this list historically have also reflected this feel.
Dante is a name common among Caribbean populations, sounds like something Anglo-Caribbean countries might pick (and it'll go well with Hispanophone countries too) and will fit in well with this list more than any other Atlantic list, so Dante is my first choice.

Dorian is a name most common among Gen Z (mean year of birth is around 2000) so a replacement name COULD be similar generation-wise.

So lemme split them up by country.
If the Bahamas makes the case:
Dante
Dalton
Deshawn
Declan

If the US makes the case
Dylan
Dustin
Derek
Donovan
Diego?

I would say DANTE is the most likely option at this point but all could change.


The people who put together the list of suggested replacements when they ask for a name to be retired are not likely to be people who are interested in names or naming or who have any idea what the names popular in younger generations are. They are likely to be male meteorologists in their 50s and 60s. As such I doubt if Dante or Deshawn will be suggested as replacements.

The male members of the Bahamas Parliament whose first names start with "D" are named Desmond, Darren, Dionisio, Donald, and Duane. One of those are something similar is likely to be suggested as a replacement instead of something like Dante, Deshawn, or Deandre.

Dorian was suggested as a replacement for Dean by France in 2008. Dorian was a very common name for babies born in France in the 1990s, peaking in use there around the year 2000. I think that French culture pays more attention to its own fashions, especially those in baby names, more than English speaking cultures do.

Well the names I listed are also common among Gen X (ages 40-55) so I won't quite rule out my input either. In fact many names on the current list seem very Gen X-like.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#11 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:22 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Torino wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This may not be the best time to discuss this, but it's pretty much a sure bet now we will need a new D name for the 2025 list.


Definitely.
I'd choose Dylan, Damien/an or Dalton to replace Dorian.


Dylan sounds like a good one.

Assuming Dorian is retired, regardless of what happens the rest of the way, there will only be one season this decade (2014) with no retired names, the first decade to retire names in 9 out of 10 years.


This would also be the first decade to not retire any names that start with A, B or C.

1950s: Carol, Connie, Audrey
1960s: Carla, Cleo, Betsy, Beulah, Camille
1970s: Celia, Agnes, Carmen, Anita
1980s: Allen, Alicia
1990s: Bob, Andrew, Cesar
2000s: Allison, Charley
2010s: None (although Alex 2010 was the closest candidate)

Dorian is the earliest name in ABC order that would be retired. Erika and Florence are the second and third earliest.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#12 Postby Astromanía » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:32 am

Alex should have been retired, I remember the day when it came here, it was so so bad, it break many rainfall records, I was 11 years old and I remember some deaths and enormous damages
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#13 Postby Chris90 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:15 pm

I'm not 100% sure on this, more like 99%, but I believe Dorian is the first time that a storm made a Cat 5 landfall with a name that replaced a previous name which also made landfall at Cat 5.
Dean made landfall at Cat 5 intensity in 2007, was replaced by Dorian, and now Dorian made a Cat 5 landfall this past Sunday. It seems the letter D on this list is very potent.

Also, the Cat 5s of the past few years have been incredibly efficient at making landfall at top end intensity. Since 2007, there have been 7 Cat 5 hurricanes, and 6 of them have made Cat 5 landfalls. The only one who didn't make it was Matthew, and he was incredibly close to Cat 5 when he struck Haiti.
The Atlantic has been particularly brutal during this active cycle (I still personally think we're in the active cycle started in 1995.)
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#14 Postby GSBHurricane » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:40 pm

Speaking of the Bahamas, I wonder when the last time they sent in a request was. Joaquin and Sandy were retired by the US, Matthew by Cuba and Haiti, and Frances by France.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:59 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:Speaking of the Bahamas, I wonder when the last time they sent in a request was. Joaquin and Sandy were retired by the US, Matthew by Cuba and Haiti, and Frances by France.


The US could also make the case, as could Canada. But it's rare for the Bahamas to be hit hard without hitting somewhere else really hard too.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#16 Postby Torino » Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:03 pm

Meanwhile, Lekima seems like a surefire retirement in the WPAC.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#17 Postby Nawtamet » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:22 am

By the way things are going in Texas, it looks like Imelda has a high chance of joining Allison and Erika as retired tropical storms....
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#18 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:03 am

Retirement for Imelda looks almost certain based on the 40"+ 48-hr rainfall totals being reported with more on the way.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#19 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:05 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Retirement for Imelda looks almost certain based on the 40"+ 48-hr rainfall totals being reported with more on the way.


...and yet another "I" storm finds a way to have a destructive impact despite being named all of an hour prior to landfall.
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Re: 2019 Cyclones Retirement

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:01 pm

The female I names are getting scarce though, but damage looks to be well into the billions. It would also be the first "triple" retirement (i.e. going to a 4th generation name).

Names NOT available to replace Imelda if retired: Ida, Idalia, Ileana, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis, Ivette
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