2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

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DioBrando
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#281 Postby DioBrando » Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:42 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s crazythat there are six names with cases for retirement this year, and possibly a seventh.
Isaias: $4.7 billion in damages across a large swath of the East Coast, including areas that rarely see TC impacts
Laura: $14.1 billion in damages and 77 fatalities from a 130 kt landfall in SW Louisiana, the strongest landfall in that area
Sally: >$5 billion in damages from a borderline C3 landfall and slow movement
Delta: $4.1 billion in damages after making landfall in the same area ravaged by Laura
Zeta: $3.2 billion in damages from an extremely rare borderline C3 landfall and pass over New Orleans...at the end of October
Eta: >$5.2 billion in damages and >160 fatalities after a devastating 120 kt landfall in Nicaragua and flooding from a multi-day stall over Central America
Iota: looks like this is going to be yet another disaster for Central America, because apparently 2020 has absolutely no idea when it’s time to stop

Who would’ve expected that the Greeks would end up as some of the strongest and most impactful storms of the season? I had a feeling this year could challenge the “no retirement policy” for the Greeks, and it certainly has in a very 2020 fashion: making absolutely no sense and being the worst possible outcome.


Yet, of the natural names, only Laura is a sure-fire retirement. The Greeks will be a big discussion on how to treat it going forward.


Yeah, quite a strange situation when the majority of the destructive storms this season have all been in the Greek alphabet. I don't think anyone predicted that.


This is exactly why the NHC has to rethink how they're naming storms once the original list gets exhausted.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#282 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:47 pm

For the NATURAL names (i.e. not Greek letters, as that is a separate discussion), here is my thinking:

Tropical Storm Arthur

Case FOR retirement: No real case at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Never really affected land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Bertha

Case FOR retirement: Other than a quick landfall, not much
Case AGAINST retirement: No real damage
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Cristobal

Case FOR retirement: Long-lived storm with damage in several areas
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage not significant and long forgotten
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Dolly

Case FOR retirement: None at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Storm remained well offshore
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Edouard

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: No real damage
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Fay

Case FOR retirement: Affected a heavily populated area with flooding
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage fairly minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Case FOR retirement: Affected several islands, albeit not severely
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall impact minimal
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Hanna

Case FOR retirement: Solid impact in parts of Texas
Case AGAINST retirement: Pretty much forgotten; worst in lightly populated area
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Isaias

Case FOR retirement: Affected many areas with significant wind, surge and tornado damage
Case AGAINST retirement: Not as severe as Irene or Sandy
My probability of retirement: 30%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Josephine

Case FOR retirement: No real case at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Never really affected land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Kyle

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: No real damage; remained mostly offshore
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Major Hurricane Laura

Case FOR retirement: Intense damage; worst storm for SW Louisiana, many deaths
Case AGAINST retirement: Not much of any
My probability of retirement: 100%
Verdict: :Can:

Hurricane Marco

Case FOR retirement: Other than brief effects, not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Practically died before landfall; overshadowed by others
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Nana

Case FOR retirement: Not too much
Case AGAINST retirement: Landfall effects minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Omar

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: No real damage; remained mostly offshore
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Paulette

Case FOR retirement: Direct impacts on Bermuda
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage light
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Rene

Case FOR retirement: None at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Storm remained well offshore
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Sally

Case FOR retirement: Severe wind and flood damage in the Southeast
Case AGAINST retirement: Death toll fairly low
My probability of retirement: 60%
Verdict: :Can:

Major Hurricane Teddy

Case FOR retirement: Land impacts in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada; intense storm
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage and impact minimal
My probability of retirement: 5%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Vicky

Case FOR retirement: None at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Storm remained well offshore
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Wilfred

Case FOR retirement: None at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Storm remained well offshore
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#283 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:28 am

It’s remarkable that most of the cases for “retirement” this year can be made for Greek-named storms (Eta and Iota).
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#284 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:06 am

Shell Mound wrote:It’s remarkable that most of the cases for “retirement” this year can be made for Greek-named storms (Eta and Iota).


To a lesser extent Delta and Zeta, although I consider them borderline cases rather like Isaias and Sally.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#285 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:41 am

Vietnam is apparently planning on requesting the retirement of the name Linfa this season.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#286 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:13 am

1900hurricane wrote:Vietnam is apparently planning on requesting the retirement of the name Linfa this season.

I wouldn't be surprised if they request Molave as well. That one had some major impacts over there
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#287 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:35 pm

Shell Mound wrote:It’s remarkable that most of the cases for “retirement” this year can be made for Greek-named storms (Eta and Iota).

I think you might be able to make a case for Delta as well.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#288 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:26 pm

Now that this season is wrapping up:

I'd retire Laura & Sally.

Greeks cannot & should not be retired, and the NHC should rethink its alternative naming strategy.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#289 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Nov 26, 2020 1:53 am

Vamco/Ulysses is 100% going after the recent damage estimates that just came out from the Philippines.


EDIT: never mind turns out it was an error made by the agency calculating the damages.
Last edited by MarioProtVI on Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#290 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:25 am

Laura, Eta, and Iota are easy retirement locks — or, at least they all would be if Eta and Iota were regular names. Sally is pretty likely, and I’m not discounting Isaias because it was pretty impactful up here. Not quite as bad as Sandy or the May 2018 Derecho, but it was still a multi-billion dollar storm with significant impacts in a region that hasn’t gotten any significant TC in 8 years. Delta and Zeta also have arguments for retirement, and I’d say Zeta is more likely to be retire-able than Delta, because it had significant impacts in a part of the Gulf coast that wasn’t already battered by an even worse storm; there’s no system to overshadow Zeta, but Laura will overshadow Delta.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#291 Postby Torino » Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:00 pm

2019: Dorian
2020: Laura, Sally, Eta 2020, Iota 2020
Maybe Amanda from EPAC and Zeta 2020 too.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#292 Postby NorthieStangl » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:35 pm

Surefire retirements: Dorian, Laura, Eta, Iota
Likely but not certain: Amanda, Sally
Toss ups: Imelda, Isaias, Delta, Zeta
Unlikely but possible: Lorenzo, Cristobal

This is TWELVE names being bought up for possible retirement. Unprecedented.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#293 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:40 pm

I've largely ignored the Greeks for retirement potential, since that's a whole other discussion on how to handle them. They should be able to retire at a virtual meeting in 2021 since they will have more time to plan a full week of such.

I think the 2019 names (other than Dorian) have seen their retirement potential drop significantly as that season is increasingly becoming forgotten after an intense 2020.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#294 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:55 pm

I'd put Amanda up for sure after reading it was the worst storm in El Salvador since Hurricane Mitch. Reminds me of how Erika was the worst storm for Dominica since David 26 years prior.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#295 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:36 pm

I can confirm the session will be held in May. No location or specific dates have been announced, I am guessing they are monitoring the progress of the vaccine to hopefully have it in person, but if an in-person meeting is safe the only place I can think would be reasonable would be at the NHC in Miami (which is why they have said it will go as late as can be). Honestly, I think a full virtual meeting would make more sense than just waiting around.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/re ... eason-ends

WMO Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee will review the season at its annual session in May 2021 and will consider which names should be retired.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#296 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:17 pm

At this point here's what I think.

2019: Dorian will be retired without question. My three guesses for the replacement name are: Derek, Diego, or Dante. Imelda would have likely been retired if this meeting was not postponed due to COVID, but at this point given all the shenanigans that occurred in the 2020 season, I would not be surprised if it is simply overshadowed by all the other stronger storms worthy of retirement and does not get retired. However, if Texas and the US do make a compelling case for Imelda's banishment, my three replacement name guess are: Imogen, Ivy, or Ivana. Lorenzo is perhaps the storm from this season with the third lowest chance of retirement, although given its highly damaging impacts on the Azores (367 million dollars to be exact, making it the costliest Azores cyclone in recent times) as well as its highest offshore death toll since Joaquin I believe (with that French tugboat), it theoretically could be retired if a strong and forceful enough case is made. My guesses are Lucas, Leopold, or Leroy.

2020: Laura is also a no-brainer when it comes down to retirement. My three guesses for the replacement name are: Lucy, Lorraine or Lindsay. Isaias and Sally are somewhat on the fence, and if 2020 was a relatively tame year they would have also likely been easily retired. However, due to potential overshadowing, there could be a chance that both of them are not retired, or only one is (Isaias was the deadlier of the two while Sally was the more expensive, so tbh I'm not sure which one would be seen as the worse one by WMO). However, my guesses for replacement should they be retired are: Irving, Iosef, or Immanuel for Isaias and Susan, Stephanie, or Selena for Sally. And then, of course, we have the Greek letter names. If they were normal retirable names, Eta and Iota would be retired in a blink of an eye, with Zeta and Delta on the fence much like Sally and Isaias imho. However, these are Greek letters we are talking about, and as a result they cannot be replaced. Which means I have a strong feeling the WMO will be forced to change the way they name storms in the Atlantic, whether by a normal name auxiliary list or using lists 1-6 but in a rolling, continuous, year-independent manner. I know there's a whole separate discussion on the Greek use in Storm2k and I will avoid going into the details, but in short Eta, Iota, and any other Greek letter storms deserve to be permanently retired so that we would not have to worry about seeing another Eta or Iota in like 2025 or 2030 and avoid inherently confusing or upsetting anybody as the old tradition of name retirement dictates.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#297 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:49 am

Confirmed that Vietnam has requested to retire the name LINFA.
 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1354336071899729924


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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#298 Postby GSBHurricane » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:45 am

NotoSans wrote:Confirmed that Vietnam has requested to retire the name LINFA.
https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1354336071899729924?s=20

Of the choices to replace Hagibis, I think Tamaraw makes the least sense. It's the replacement for the PAGASA name Tisoy (Kammuri) which was retired after 2019. Speaking of PAGASA, they replaced Ambo (Vongfong), Quinta (Molave), Rolly (Goni), and Ulysses (Vamco) with Aghon, Querubin, Romina and Upang for 2024.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#299 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:03 am

PAGASA seems to have requested to retire four names as well: Vongfong, Molave, Goni and Vamco.

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1354808083722080257


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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#300 Postby al78 » Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:20 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:At this point here's what I think.

2020: Laura is also a no-brainer when it comes down to retirement. My three guesses for the replacement name are: Lucy, Lorraine or Lindsay.


Lorraine used to be used in the East Pacific, but not any more, whether that affects its likelihood of ever being used in the Atlantic I don't know.
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