2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

[Ubuntwo]

I Don’t think Imelda would get the retirement hammer. It caused $2 billion in damage per this report, which isn’t enough for the US to request retirement in the 2010s due to inflation (see Lee and Isaac). http://thoughtleadership.aon.com/Docume ... -recap.pdf
It also caused only 5 deaths.
On the other hand, I’m one who thinks Japan is finally going to ask a name for retirement and request Hagibis. The last time Japan did it was in 1991 with Mirielle and Hagibis looks like it might be worse. $9 billion in insured losses alone (possibly $18 billion total) and over 80 deaths. Japanese media reports suggest that Hagibis may actually be the worst typhoon to hit Japan since Vera in 1959 which says something.

It seems like Dorian is the only name to be retired from this season, unless we get a late season storm like Otto.
As for Hagibis, I think it should be retired, although Japan calls it "Typhoon 19". Lekima is the name in the WPAC that will problably get retired.

Hagibis is definitely not getting retired. Not a single destructive Japan typhoon has even had its name removed — not even storms like Jebi ($12.8 billion in damages) or Lionrock (>500 deaths). Tropical cyclone name retirement in the West Pacific doesn’t make much sense overall, especially since the majority of the costliest systems in the basin have not been retired.

FWIW, only about 20 of the deaths from Lionrock were in Japan. The rest were in North Korea, and there’s no way they ever request retirement.

[Torino]

Some typhoon names that could've been retired by Japan:
Saomai* 2000
Higos 2002
Etau 2003
Chaba 2004
Songda 2004
Ma-on 2004
Tokage 2004
Nabi** 2005
Shanshan 2006
Melor* 2009
Talas 2011
Roke 2011
Neoguri 2014
Goni 2015
Nanmadol 2017
Lan 2017
Jebi 2018
Trami 2018
Faxai 2019
Hagibis 2019

*Later retired for another storm.
**Retired for another reason.

[CrazyC83]

How I would rate the storms for 2019:

Subtropical Storm Andrea

Case FOR retirement: You're kidding, right?
Case AGAINST retirement: Never approached land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Hurricane Barry

Case FOR retirement: It did hit land and did bring some attention
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall impact relatively minor
My probability of retirement: 5%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Chantal

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never approached land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Dorian

Case FOR retirement: Catastrophic land impacts in the Bahamas; multiple land areas affected
Case AGAINST retirement: If any, it would be the lack of past cases in the Bahamas as they are not usually the "epicenter"
My probability of retirement: 95%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Erin

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never approached land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Fernand

Case FOR retirement: Did cause significant flooding in Mexico
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm that remained fairly localized
My probability of retirement: 5%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never approached land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Humberto

Case FOR retirement: Direct hit to Bermuda as a strong storm
Case AGAINST retirement: Impacts appeared similar to Nicole and less than Fay and Gonzalo, forget Fabian
My probability of retirement: 20%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Imelda

Case FOR retirement: Severe rainfall and flooding in Texas
Case AGAINST retirement: Very weak storm and low death toll
My probability of retirement: 25%
Verdict:

Hurricane Jerry

Case FOR retirement: Some impacts to Bermuda after Humberto
Case AGAINST retirement: Land effects minimal
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Karen

Case FOR retirement: Did pass through the Caribbean
Case AGAINST retirement: Land effects minimal
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Lorenzo

Case FOR retirement: Very strong storm in an unlikely location, damage in the Azores
Case AGAINST retirement: Is Portugal on the committee? Plus damage not catastrophic
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Melissa

Case FOR retirement: Large, unusual storm that affected the Northeast
Case AGAINST retirement: Center remained away from land and damage more attested to non-tropical impacts
My probability of retirement: 5%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Nestor

Case FOR retirement: Did affect the Gulf Coast and Southeast with some damage
Case AGAINST retirement: Remained mostly weak and overall impacts not severe
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Olga

Case FOR retirement: Damage fairly significant after landfall
Case AGAINST retirement: Very weak, very short lived and not exactly tropical
My probability of retirement: 5%
Verdict:

Hurricane Pablo

Case FOR retirement: None, despite unusual nature
Case AGAINST retirement: Never affected land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Subtropical Storm Rebekah

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never approached land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

[EquusStorm]

I would almost say even the US and Canada would request Dorian to be gone even if the Bahamas didn't; 9 deaths and $1.2b isn't that much in the US, nor <$100million in Canada, but the principle of the thing. Someone's going to ask for it to be retired so I would honestly put my neck on the line for a 100% shot. Imelda and Lorenzo are the unknowns here... the death toll is dramatically lower than the other two retired tropical storms as is the GDP-adjusted damage for Imelda so I'm leaning towards no, and Lorenzo will depend on if Joaquin's precedent of retirement based on a death toll from sinking a ship will carry. But even then the death toll is much less than with Joaquin, which was damaging enough in the Bahamas it could plausibly have been retried for impact regardless of the lack of deaths on land since I think all deaths were offshore. Even though I think I recall that it was the US that asked for that retirement instead of the Bahamas. With Humberto, since Gonzalo and Nicole didn't get the boot, I highly doubt it will either.

So the more I think about it... Dorian 100%, Imelda 20%, Lorenzo 20%... Humberto probably 5%, and everything else nil unless for non-impact reasons.

Wow, the Bahamas have had it rough starting in 2015.

[CrazyC83]

I would almost say even the US and Canada would request Dorian to be gone even if the Bahamas didn't; 9 deaths and $1.2b isn't that much in the US, nor <$100million in Canada, but the principle of the thing. Someone's going to ask for it to be retired so I would honestly put my neck on the line for a 100% shot. Imelda and Lorenzo are the unknowns here... the death toll is dramatically lower than the other two retired tropical storms as is the GDP-adjusted damage for Imelda so I'm leaning towards no, and Lorenzo will depend on if Joaquin's precedent of retirement based on a death toll from sinking a ship will carry. But even then the death toll is much less than with Joaquin, which was damaging enough in the Bahamas it could plausibly have been retried for impact regardless of the lack of deaths on land since I think all deaths were offshore. Even though I think I recall that it was the US that asked for that retirement instead of the Bahamas. With Humberto, since Gonzalo and Nicole didn't get the boot, I highly doubt it will either.

So the more I think about it... Dorian 100%, Imelda 20%, Lorenzo 20%... Humberto probably 5%, and everything else nil unless for non-impact reasons.

Wow, the Bahamas have had it rough starting in 2015.

2018 was the only quiet year in the Bahamas. Outside of the US (mainly Florence and Michael) most areas avoided significant impact last year.

Assuming Dorian, and only that name, is retired, the decade would end with 16 retired names, but only one year without any retirements (2014).

[DioBrando]

Here's what I think:

Dorian: 100%
Imelda: 20%
Lorenzo: 20%
Humberto: 10%
Rest of the storms: Forget it%

If Lee didn't get kicked out, neither would Immy.

[HurricaneRyan]

With the season ending today and no new big storms for either the Atlantic or EPAC, Dorian remains the only retirement on lock.

Imelda and Lorenzo are the only other potential candidates for this season.

This will be the second season in a row that no original names will be retired from this list, but also the seventh consecutive to do so.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

This will be the second season in a row that no original names will be retired from this list.

That's completely incorrect. Both Florence and Michael had been on their list since it was first used in 1982, and so were "original" names.

[HurricaneRyan]

This will be the second season in a row that no original names will be retired from this list.

That's completely incorrect. Both Florence and Michael had been on their list since it was first used in 1982, and so were "original" names.

I was specifically referring to THIS list, as in the list used since 1983. The only retired name in 2013 was Ingrid. No original names have been retired from List 5 since 2007.

[galaxy401]

Dorian 100% will be retired. I think that will be the only name though. Lorenzo stayed mostly at sea and Imelda, while doing heavy flooding damage, covered a small area.

No names in the East Pacific will get retired.

[Nuno]

http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.co ... -recap.pdf

Looks like Imelda will reach $2b in damages. I still don't think this warrants retirement. There were less than 5 fatalities. If we retire every tropical storm that reaches this figure in damages, we're going to have to retire every single tropical cyclone that strikes an American coast soon enough due to the increasing urbanization and coastal density.

To put it in perspective, Imelda's insured damages are roughly 1/60th of what Katrina and Harvey's were, without the catastrophic devastation either storm wrought.

[DioBrando]

Imelda may not be retired. Remember Lee from 2011?
As for retired names, I personally feel that they're going to choose names that are common among todays 20-55 year olds (i.e. Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X) as opposed to 60+ (Baby Boomers) like other names lists. However, there are exceptions, as always. Reasons for this being that the names on this year's list, as a whole, seem to be common among those who are either entering or are middle-aged as opposed to elderly (last few years ago, anyone recall Francine and Milton?)

Sounds weird, but I'm going to gather all the names used this year, check when they were most popular and group them down by generation:

Greatest Generation (before 1925):
Olga (1916)
Fernand (1923)

Total: 2

Silent Generation (1925-1945):
Jerry (1941)

Total: 1

Baby Boomers (1946-1963):
Karen (1956) despite the Internet calling Gen X "The Karen Generation" recently
Barry (1962)
Van (1946)

Total: 3

Gen X (1964-1979):
Imelda (1978)
Melissa (1979)
Tanya (1974)
Wendy (1967)

Total: 4

Millennials/Gen Y (1980-1995):
Andrea (1981)
Chantal (1990)
Erin (1983)
Nestor (1992)

Total: 4

Zoomers/Gen Z (1996+):
Gabrielle (1998)
Rebekah (1996)
Dorian (2000)
Humberto (1997)
Lorenzo (2017) Wouldn't that be Gen Alpha? Might as well just group him in with the Zoomers for now.
Pablo (2005)
Sebastien (2007)

Total: 7

This year's list is majority Gen X/Millennials/Zoomers.
Seems likely based on this pattern, they'd pick replacement names that aren't oldish sounding. I believe the other name lists has a higher concentration of Boomer names and older.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Imelda may not be retired. Remember Lee from 2011?
As for retired names, I personally feel that they're going to choose names that are common among todays 20-55 year olds (i.e. Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X) as opposed to 60+ (Baby Boomers) like other names lists. However, there are exceptions, as always. Reasons for this being that the names on this year's list, as a whole, seem to be common among those who are either entering or are middle-aged as opposed to elderly (last few years ago, anyone recall Francine and Milton?)

Sounds weird, but I'm going to gather all the names used this year, check when they were most popular and group them down by generation:

Greatest Generation (before 1925):
Olga (1916)
Fernand (1923)

Total: 2

Silent Generation (1925-1945):
Jerry (1941)

Total: 1

Baby Boomers (1946-1963):
Karen (1956) despite the Internet calling Gen X "The Karen Generation" recently
Barry (1962)
Van (1946)

Total: 3

Gen X (1964-1979):
Imelda (1978)
Melissa (1979)
Tanya (1974)
Wendy (1967)

Total: 4

Millennials/Gen Y (1980-1995):
Andrea (1981)
Chantal (1990)
Erin (1983)
Nestor (1992)

Total: 4

Zoomers/Gen Z (1996+):
Gabrielle (1998)
Rebekah (1996)
Dorian (2000)
Humberto (1997)
Lorenzo (2017) Wouldn't that be Gen Alpha? Might as well just group him in with the Zoomers for now.
Pablo (2005)
Sebastien (2007)

Total: 7

This year's list is majority Gen X/Millennials/Zoomers.
Seems likely based on this pattern, they'd pick replacement names that aren't oldish sounding. I believe the other name lists has a higher concentration of Boomer names and older.

It's interesting to see this analysis, but the problem is that you are using only data from the USA to get your "generational" designations. Names don't have the same age stereotypes across all the countries who might be requesting replacements.
Sebastien was originally put on the list as a "French" name -- if it was English, the spelling would be Sebastian. In France Sebastien was at the top of its popularity curve around 1977, so it's a late Gen X name there. Chantal is a Baby Boomer name in France, being at the peak of popularity there in the early 1950s.
The generational use of names isn't even the same in the USA and the UK. I do not know where on the Internet you found Gen X called "the Karen generation", but in England that would be correct, because Karen didn't peak in use in the UK until ten to fifteen years after its peak in the USA. Melissa's a Millennial name in England, having peaked there in the 1990s. Though there aren't examples on this list, the age difference can of course go the other way -- Jennifer and Heather are more Boomer names in England while being more Gen X in the USA. Colin peaked at around 1960 in England. Colin was still rare in the USA then and didn't peak for American babies until 2004.

[Torino]

I think only Dorian will get retired. I'd pick Dylan to replace it, or maybe something Hispanic to balance things out (Diego, Damian, Dante).

Other options: Derek, Derrick, Desmond, Donovan, Darren, Daryl, Damien, Dexter, Dale, Danilo, Dalton, Devon, Duncan, Duane.

Not recommended: Dominic, Domingo, Donald

[DioBrando]

I think only Dorian will get retired. I'd pick Dylan to replace it, or maybe something Hispanic to balance things out (Diego, Damian, Dante).

Other options: Derek, Derrick, Desmond, Donovan, Darren, Daryl, Damien, Dexter, Dale, Danilo, Dalton, Devon, Duncan, Duane.

Not recommended: Dominic, Domingo, Donald

Why won't Dominic and those lot be recommended? Is it because of the Dominican Rebublic?

Yeah, given the rather contemporary feel of the naming list overall, I'd go with any of your choices. I'm leaning towards Dante though for some reason, I don't really know why though. Desmond seems quite common in Africa so I feel Desmond might be used in the SWIO one day. I know a few Desmonds, all have a connection to Africa one way or the other.

I'd go Dante, Deshawn, Dylan or Diego.

Isla might be a decent pick for Imelda. Or Imogen, but I feel that might be a better fit for the 2023 list (whimsical, oldish.)

I don't think Lorenzo (hi ) would be retired but you never know. I'd go with Luigi (most recommended because of Mario) or if that's not possible, Leone or Leo.

[DioBrando]

Imelda may not be retired. Remember Lee from 2011?
As for retired names, I personally feel that they're going to choose names that are common among todays 20-55 year olds (i.e. Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X) as opposed to 60+ (Baby Boomers) like other names lists. However, there are exceptions, as always. Reasons for this being that the names on this year's list, as a whole, seem to be common among those who are either entering or are middle-aged as opposed to elderly (last few years ago, anyone recall Francine and Milton?)

Sounds weird, but I'm going to gather all the names used this year, check when they were most popular and group them down by generation:

Greatest Generation (before 1925):
Olga (1916)
Fernand (1923)

Total: 2

Silent Generation (1925-1945):
Jerry (1941)

Total: 1

Baby Boomers (1946-1963):
Karen (1956) despite the Internet calling Gen X "The Karen Generation" recently
Barry (1962)
Van (1946)

Total: 3

Gen X (1964-1979):
Imelda (1978)
Melissa (1979)
Tanya (1974)
Wendy (1967)

Total: 4

Millennials/Gen Y (1980-1995):
Andrea (1981)
Chantal (1990)
Erin (1983)
Nestor (1992)

Total: 4

Zoomers/Gen Z (1996+):
Gabrielle (1998)
Rebekah (1996)
Dorian (2000)
Humberto (1997)
Lorenzo (2017) Wouldn't that be Gen Alpha? Might as well just group him in with the Zoomers for now.
Pablo (2005)
Sebastien (2007)

Total: 7

This year's list is majority Gen X/Millennials/Zoomers.
Seems likely based on this pattern, they'd pick replacement names that aren't oldish sounding. I believe the other name lists has a higher concentration of Boomer names and older.

It's interesting to see this analysis, but the problem is that you are using only data from the USA to get your "generational" designations. Names don't have the same age stereotypes across all the countries who might be requesting replacements.
Sebastien was originally put on the list as a "French" name -- if it was English, the spelling would be Sebastian. In France Sebastien was at the top of its popularity curve around 1977, so it's a late Gen X name there. Chantal is a Baby Boomer name in France, being at the peak of popularity there in the early 1950s.
The generational use of names isn't even the same in the USA and the UK. I do not know where on the Internet you found Gen X called "the Karen generation", but in England that would be correct, because Karen didn't peak in use in the UK until ten to fifteen years after its peak in the USA. Melissa's a Millennial name in England, having peaked there in the 1990s. Though there aren't examples on this list, the age difference can of course go the other way -- Jennifer and Heather are more Boomer names in England while being more Gen X in the USA. Colin peaked at around 1960 in England. Colin was still rare in the USA then and didn't peak for American babies until 2004.

that's what's available though so I had to make use of it. I have to back up claims with hard facts.
Still, what do you think of the naming list being mostly 1980 or after?
I'm a Lorenzo born in 1996, FYI. I've no idea why my name is associated with toddlers in America ahaha. I always thought of it as old-fashioned! From that list, I also know of a Gabrielle (1998), an Humberto (1995-6?), a Sebastien (1980), an Erin (1997), a Melissa (1995), Karen (1960s), Barry (1950s). I'm from Italy so I meet people from all around the continent, I guess. So yeah, I get your point.
Still, I feel they'll most likely use a name more common in people born after 1980 which ever country is picking. But you never know, I could be wrong.

[Torino]

I think only Dorian will get retired. I'd pick Dylan to replace it, or maybe something Hispanic to balance things out (Diego, Damian, Dante).

Other options: Derek, Derrick, Desmond, Donovan, Darren, Daryl, Damien, Dexter, Dale, Danilo, Dalton, Devon, Duncan, Duane.

Not recommended: Dominic, Domingo, Donald

Why won't Dominic and those lot be recommended? Is it because of the Dominican Rebublic?

Yeah, given the rather contemporary feel of the naming list overall, I'd go with any of your choices. I'm leaning towards Dante though for some reason, I don't really know why though. Desmond seems quite common in Africa so I feel Desmond might be used in the SWIO one day. I know a few Desmonds, all have a connection to Africa one way or the other.

I'd go Dante, Deshawn, Dylan or Diego.

Isla might be a decent pick for Imelda. Or Imogen, but I feel that might be a better fit for the 2023 list (whimsical, oldish.)

I don't think Lorenzo (hi ) would be retired but you never know. I'd go with Luigi (most recommended because of Mario) or if that's not possible, Leone or Leo.

I think Dominic wouldn't be appropriate because of Dominica/Dominican Republic (like the France/Frances situation). It could be used in the EPAC, maybe.
Btw, Desmond was used this year in the SWIO region, name contributed by South Africa

[DioBrando]

I think only Dorian will get retired. I'd pick Dylan to replace it, or maybe something Hispanic to balance things out (Diego, Damian, Dante).

Other options: Derek, Derrick, Desmond, Donovan, Darren, Daryl, Damien, Dexter, Dale, Danilo, Dalton, Devon, Duncan, Duane.

Not recommended: Dominic, Domingo, Donald

Why won't Dominic and those lot be recommended? Is it because of the Dominican Rebublic?

Yeah, given the rather contemporary feel of the naming list overall, I'd go with any of your choices. I'm leaning towards Dante though for some reason, I don't really know why though. Desmond seems quite common in Africa so I feel Desmond might be used in the SWIO one day. I know a few Desmonds, all have a connection to Africa one way or the other.

I'd go Dante, Deshawn, Dylan or Diego.

Isla might be a decent pick for Imelda. Or Imogen, but I feel that might be a better fit for the 2023 list (whimsical, oldish.)

I don't think Lorenzo (hi ) would be retired but you never know. I'd go with Luigi (most recommended because of Mario) or if that's not possible, Leone or Leo.

I think Dominic wouldn't be appropriate because of Dominica/Dominican Republic (like the France/Frances situation). It could be used in the EPAC, maybe.
Btw, Desmond was used this year in the SWIO region, name contributed by South Africa

Mmmm, understandable!
I'm rooting for Diego (one of my favorite manga characters) or Dante. I love exotic names (unlike mine super common here)
Was actually thining Deandre or Deshawn too, a common name for African-Americans and West Indians for those who are Gen X.

[BadLarry95]

Why won't Dominic and those lot be recommended? Is it because of the Dominican Rebublic?

Yeah, given the rather contemporary feel of the naming list overall, I'd go with any of your choices. I'm leaning towards Dante though for some reason, I don't really know why though. Desmond seems quite common in Africa so I feel Desmond might be used in the SWIO one day. I know a few Desmonds, all have a connection to Africa one way or the other.

I'd go Dante, Deshawn, Dylan or Diego.

Isla might be a decent pick for Imelda. Or Imogen, but I feel that might be a better fit for the 2023 list (whimsical, oldish.)

I don't think Lorenzo (hi ) would be retired but you never know. I'd go with Luigi (most recommended because of Mario) or if that's not possible, Leone or Leo.

I think Dominic wouldn't be appropriate because of Dominica/Dominican Republic (like the France/Frances situation). It could be used in the EPAC, maybe.
Btw, Desmond was used this year in the SWIO region, name contributed by South Africa

Mmmm, understandable!
I'm rooting for Diego (one of my favorite manga characters) or Dante. I love exotic names (unlike mine super common here)
Was actually thining Deandre or Deshawn too, a common name for African-Americans and West Indians for those who are Gen X.

Denzel is the obvious choice

[NotoSans]

Japan has requested to retire the names FAXAI and HAGIBIS. No other applications have been received so far but LEKIMA, LINGLING, KAMMURI and PHANFONE are potential candidates.