2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

The female I names are getting scarce though, but damage looks to be well into the billions. It would also be the first "triple" retirement (i.e. going to a 4th generation name).

Names NOT available to replace Imelda if retired: Ida, Idalia, Ileana, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis, Ivette

You forgot Inez.

The male "I" names are even scarcer, though. At least we still have Ivy, Iva, Isolde, Ilona, Imogen, Imogene, Ina, Indigo, Inga, Inger, Iola, Iolanthe, Iona, Isabella, Isadora, Izzy and Itzel as female "I" replacement possibilities. Plus Ilene and Iesha if you want to go with less common spellings of Eileen and Aisha.

I've seen reports by private citizens in Bermuda claiming Humberto turned out to be as bad or worse as Fabian, so I wonder if there is a chance Bermuda will ask for Humberto to be retired.

[CrazyC83]

The female I names are getting scarce though, but damage looks to be well into the billions. It would also be the first "triple" retirement (i.e. going to a 4th generation name).

Names NOT available to replace Imelda if retired: Ida, Idalia, Ileana, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis, Ivette

You forgot Inez.

The male "I" names are even scarcer, though. At least we still have Ivy, Iva, Isolde, Ilona, Imogen, Imogene, Ina, Indigo, Inga, Inger, Iola, Iolanthe, Iona, Isabella, Isadora, Izzy and Itzel as female "I" replacement possibilities. Plus Ilene and Iesha if you want to go with less common spellings of Eileen and Aisha.

I've seen reports by private citizens in Bermuda claiming Humberto turned out to be as bad or worse as Fabian, so I wonder if there is a chance Bermuda will ask for Humberto to be retired.

Interesting - the reports I had first seen had Humberto on par with Nicole, but I guess they were scarce reports.

[Torino]

To replace Imelda, I'd go with Ivy, Ivana or Iona.

[GrayLancer18]

The female I names are getting scarce though, but damage looks to be well into the billions. It would also be the first "triple" retirement (i.e. going to a 4th generation name).

Names NOT available to replace Imelda if retired: Ida, Idalia, Ileana, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis, Ivette

You forgot Inez.

The male "I" names are even scarcer, though. At least we still have Ivy, Iva, Isolde, Ilona, Imogen, Imogene, Ina, Indigo, Inga, Inger, Iola, Iolanthe, Iona, Isabella, Isadora, Izzy and Itzel as female "I" replacement possibilities. Plus Ilene and Iesha if you want to go with less common spellings of Eileen and Aisha.

I've seen reports by private citizens in Bermuda claiming Humberto turned out to be as bad or worse as Fabian, so I wonder if there is a chance Bermuda will ask for Humberto to be retired.

Might come a time when the WMO will either have to have the "I" row substituted with another letter that hasn't gotten many retired names or forget about going in alphabetical order to name these things, like the it is done in the WPAC.

Humberto could be a 50/50; it all depends if Jerry doesn't steal the spotlight with a direct hit and makes a Bertha/Fran scenario.

[AJC3]

That a storm could have a rapid-fire life history like Imelda...

20% at 800 PM EDT, 9/16
30% at 200 AM EDT, 9/17
30% at 800 AM EDT, 9/17
50% at 1145 AM EDT, 9/17
TD at 100 PM EDT, 9/17
TS at 145 PM EDT, 9/17
LF at 230 PM EDT, 9/17
TD at 800 PM EDT, 9/17

..and then have a legitimate shot at retirement is pretty crazy.

While the flooding is no doubt significant and widespread, we'll have to see how extensive (i.e expensive) the damage turns out to be, as well as how many casualties wind up occurring (unfortunately), when all is said and done. Having lived through the extensive and prolonged inundation of Fay (2008), which ultimately was *not* retired, for now I'll reserve judgment on whether retirement of Imelda's name is a metaphysical certitude. However, it's looking more and more likely with each passing hour...

[CrazyC83]

That a storm could have a rapid-fire life history like Imelda...

20% at 800 PM EDT, 9/16
30% at 200 AM EDT, 9/17
30% at 800 AM EDT, 9/17
50% at 1145 AM EDT, 9/17
TD at 100 PM EDT, 9/17
TS at 145 PM EDT, 9/17
LF at 230 PM EDT, 9/17
TD at 800 PM EDT, 9/17

..and then have a legitimate shot at retirement is pretty crazy.

While the flooding is no doubt significant and widespread, we'll have to see how extensive (i.e expensive) the damage turns out to be, as well as how many casualties wind up occurring (unfortunately), when all is said and done. Having lived through the extensive and prolonged inundation of Fay (2008), which ultimately was *not* retired, for now I'll reserve judgment on whether retirement of Imelda's name is a metaphysical certitude. However, it's looking more and more likely with each passing hour...

Fay was much less impactful though with the heaviest rain mostly in less populated areas - similar to, say, Debby 2012. This affected a very heavily populated area and a moderately populated area (to a much greater degree and much more widespread).

[bp92]

The female I names are getting scarce though, but damage looks to be well into the billions. It would also be the first "triple" retirement (i.e. going to a 4th generation name).

Names NOT available to replace Imelda if retired: Ida, Idalia, Ileana, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis, Ivette

Yikes. We're already scraping the barrel for female I names as we're right now (names like Idalia and Imelda are really weird), and we're going to have to look for another one again?

[somethingfunny]

The female I names are getting scarce though, but damage looks to be well into the billions. It would also be the first "triple" retirement (i.e. going to a 4th generation name).

Names NOT available to replace Imelda if retired: Ida, Idalia, Ileana, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis, Ivette

Yikes. We're already scraping the barrel for female I names as we're right now (names like Idalia and Imelda are really weird), and we're going to have to look for another one again?

Imelda's not that weird. My adoptive abuela is named Imelda. Sweetest old lady you'll ever meet... And tough as nails also


I'd put the odds of retirement at 50/50, probably the same as Humberto. The fact that it sprang up out of seemingly nowhere means that the name didn't get a whole lot of media airtime. Had it not been named, it would have been the same flood. I do think that the NHC probably should have had at least 50% development odds on it rather than the 10-20 they gave it... But even so, part of the impact of a name is in the lead-up of warnings and preparations. I've also heard one of the reasons names are retired is if there are expected to be many insurance claims still tied up in the courts six years later with that storm's name involved in the documents.

As far as I names go... It's time to start digging into other cultures for inspiration.

[HurricaneRyan]

Mess at an I name having a shot for retirement by just being a short lived tropical storm

[EquusStorm]

I think names get retired WAY more often than they should be and retirement should be reserved for storms that set back national economies by years, decimate populations, and give whole nations PTSD at just the sound of their names (Dorian of course fits this to a T) but realistically the storm only being capable of even being named for a few hours and did all of its damage as a weak tropical depression and remnant low has a pretty decent shot at retirement just from sheer damage totals. From a numerical perspective, if and only if the highest end damage totals verify and the death toll skyrockets, I'll begrudgingly not throw TOO many chairs if Imelda gets nominated even if I disagree. Imelda did a LOT of CATASTROPHIC damage, but if its winds had been 2mph lower, it's not like we would try to retire Tropical Depression Eleven. There was a request to the WMO two years ago to make winds of over 90mph or so a requirement for retirement, and though I disgaree (hi Agnes) and it won't happen, I totally understand the sentiment. The 40mph winds that earned the name for six hours did no damage; the unnamed rains from the moisture envelope did.

Unless damage totals climb way higher than expected, if Humberto gets retired I'll smash my head against a wall repeatedly. A single fatality, trees uprooted, and power outages doesn't make for a retirement case, biggest hit since Fabian or not. Was absolutely a really nasty hit, but power will be restored soon and life will go back to normal, unlike the Bahamas after Dorian or half the Caribbean after Irma. We are legitimately running out of names for certain letters (I, mainly) in the cultures generally specified for usage in the Atlantic and we are going to have to either start using names from other cultures that have notbing to to do with the Atlantic basin part of the world, retire the entire letter from usage, or stop retiring names that come nowhere close to deserving it. It almost seems like there's a mindset of "ooh we got hit a little, let's nominate the name just to be special because we haven't had a legit case in a long time" in some places and that's stupid. Also, I'm looking at you, French government who shrieks for retirement every time a cloud can be spotted from their territories or if a name on the list regardless of impact even sounds vaguely French.

Tl;dr, if uttering the name of a storm in the affected country doesn't send shivers down the spine of residents and evoke nightmarish memories for a massive chunk of the entire population for decades to come, please don't even noninate it. Oh hey where did that soapbox come from and why was it under my feet

Barry <5%, doubtful but always possible
Dorian absolute heckin' 100%
Fernand <5% since Alma got retired for some stupid reason and we are repeatedly axing rainy tropical storms now
Humberto 30% because power outages can constitute retirement now I guess
Imelda probably 50%, 70%+ if the higher damage totals into the multiple billions verify... despite doing all damage as a tropical depression and remnant low it still got a name for less than half a day and that's been enough to retire storms before

[Torino]

I think names get retired WAY more often than they should be and retirement should be reserved for storms that set back national economies by years, decimate populations, and give whole nations PTSD at just the sound of their names (Dorian of course fits this to a T) but realistically the storm only being capable of even being named for a few hours and did all of its damage as a weak tropical depression and remnant low has a pretty decent shot at retirement just from sheer damage totals. From a numerical perspective, if and only if the highest end damage totals verify and the death toll skyrockets, I'll begrudgingly not throw TOO many chairs if Imelda gets nominated even if I disagree. Imelda did a LOT of CATASTROPHIC damage, but if its winds had been 2mph lower, it's not like we would try to retire Tropical Depression Eleven. There was a request to the WMO two years ago to make winds of over 90mph or so a requirement for retirement, and though I disgaree (hi Agnes) and it won't happen, I totally understand the sentiment. The 40mph winds that earned the name for six hours did no damage; the unnamed rains from the moisture envelope did.

Unless damage totals climb way higher than expected, if Humberto gets retired I'll smash my head against a wall repeatedly. A single fatality, trees uprooted, and power outages doesn't make for a retirement case, biggest hit since Fabian or not. Was absolutely a really nasty hit, but power will be restored soon and life will go back to normal, unlike the Bahamas after Dorian or half the Caribbean after Irma. We are legitimately running out of names for certain letters (I, mainly) in the cultures generally specified for usage in the Atlantic and we are going to have to either start using names from other cultures that have notbing to to do with the Atlantic basin part of the world, retire the entire letter from usage, or stop retiring names that come nowhere close to deserving it. It almost seems like there's a mindset of "ooh we got hit a little, let's nominate the name just to be special because we haven't had a legit case in a long time" in some places and that's stupid. Also, I'm looking at you, French government who shrieks for retirement every time a cloud can be spotted from their territories or if a name on the list regardless of impact even sounds vaguely French.

Tl;dr, if uttering the name of a storm in the affected country doesn't send shivers down the spine of residents and evoke nightmarish memories for a massive chunk of the entire population for decades to come, please don't even noninate it. Oh hey where did that soapbox come from and why was it under my feet

Barry <5%, doubtful but always possible
Dorian absolute heckin' 100%
Fernand <5% since Alma got retired for some stupid reason and we are repeatedly axing rainy tropical storms now
Humberto 30% because power outages can constitute retirement now I guess
Imelda probably 50%, 70%+ if the higher damage totals into the multiple billions verify... despite doing all damage as a tropical depression and remnant low it still got a name for less than half a day and that's been enough to retire storms before

I think retirement is working just fine, except for Alma of course (retired by Costa Rica). Fernand and Humberto won't be retired, and Dorian is the only lock so far. There are some questionable cases (I'd say Igor, Klaus and Ingrid), but in the end they were justified.
As far as I know, Meteo-France are responsible for retiring Klaus (not really big deal) and Dean (very destructive storm). They only suggested replacement names for Felix and Noel (probably retired by Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, respectively).
See http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/www/tcp/Me ... dd.1.E.doc

[Buck]

Humberto isn't getting retired, folks. Bermuda is a tough, well-built island and Fabian was a landmark storm. They would've easily had a case for retiring Gonzalo and didn't. I would be shocked if they requested Humberto be replaced.

[zal0phus]

Could there be a chance that Lorenzo gets retired since it sunk the Bourbon Rhode?

[DioBrando]

Could there be a chance that Lorenzo gets retired since it sunk the Bourbon Rhode?

And it's a French ship and they retire any name they fancy... even Klaus

[CrazyC83]

Now a cat 5...Portugal (Azores) is not on the committee though.

[HurricaneRyan]

If Joaquin got retired for its boat slaying incident, Lorenzo has a shot. But not a big one. It and Imelda aren't locks for retirement

[somethingfunny]

If Joaquin got retired for its boat slaying incident, Lorenzo has a shot. But not a big one. It and Imelda aren't locks for retirement

Joaquin was one of the worst hurricanes to strike the Bahamas in modern history.

[SconnieCane]

If Joaquin got retired for its boat slaying incident, Lorenzo has a shot. But not a big one. It and Imelda aren't locks for retirement

Joaquin was one of the worst hurricanes to strike the Bahamas in modern history.

Yes, it did a lot of damage there, but the direct death toll on land was zero (in stark contrast to Dorian). I think the Bahamas damage PLUS the 34 at-sea fatalities was adequate for retirement for Joaquin, but I'm reluctant to retire a storm based solely on lives lost at sea. Both incidents are eyebrow-raising though at least to me, it's simply mind-boggling and without excuse that vessels are sailing into major hurricanes in the satellite era.

Barry 2% - Minimal Cat 1. impact, plenty of storms of similar strength and impact level have struck the Gulf Coast and the names re-used, it didn't do anything exceptionally destructive for its strength unlike Imelda or Allison.

Dorian 100% -This name has surely been used for the second and final time, after replacing a name (Dean) that was likewise retired for a destructive Cat. 5 landfall.

Fernand 2% - Damaging flooding, but only one fatality and Mexico seems to retire Atlantic landfalls less readily than Pacific ones. Patricia was retired; despite its exceptional intensity at both peak and landfall it hit a sparsely populated area and wasn't nearly as catastrophic as it might have been, while the costlier and deadlier Emily of 2005 was not.

Humberto 2% - Despite being described by at least one Bermudian on this very forum as "worse than Fabian," it caused no fatalities in the island territory. Unlike the northern Bahamas or U.S. Gulf Coast, they are not surge-prone and are generally well built to withstand even a solid major hurricane strike. It would take an exceptionally violent (Dorian or Irma in the Leewards-level) landfall/direct hit to do major damage there.

Imelda 35% - A name-worthy 35kt TS for a mere six hours, this system did all its damage through rainfall and the associated freshwater flooding. It sounds like things got really bad in and around Beaumont, but overall scope was much less than Harvey or Allison, and the death toll much lower than either. Other low-end TCs have caused damaging flooding in this part of southeast Texas with a low death toll and not been retired (Claudette).

Lorenzo 3% - It remains to be seen what its impacts in the Azores will be, but Portugal is not part of the WMO committee capable of requesting retirement. It also remains to be seen if any more survivors from the Bourbon Rhode will be found (unlikely at this point), but given France's penchant for retirement I gave it a 1% boost over the other marginal cases.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Lorenzo 3% - It remains to be seen what its impacts in the Azores will be, but Portugal is not part of the WMO committee capable of requesting retirement. It also remains to be seen if any more survivors from the Bourbon Rhode will be found (unlikely at this point), but given France's penchant for retirement I gave it a 1% boost over the other marginal cases.

For the life of me I do not know why posters on this board continually think that if a country doesn't have an official member on the WMO committee dealing with Atlantic names that it is not "capable of requesting retirement." Someone in their official meteorological service can send a letter requesting retirement, and if the WMO receives such a request it would be incredibly rude, cruel, and stupid NOT to honor it. Do you all really think the meteorologists on that WMO committee are clueless enough to not retire a name if a country affected requests it, whether or not there is someone from that country on the committee?

[tomatkins]

The female I names are getting scarce though, but damage looks to be well into the billions. It would also be the first "triple" retirement (i.e. going to a 4th generation name).

Names NOT available to replace Imelda if retired: Ida, Idalia, Ileana, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis, Ivette

You forgot Inez.

The male "I" names are even scarcer, though. At least we still have Ivy, Iva, Isolde, Ilona, Imogen, Imogene, Ina, Indigo, Inga, Inger, Iola, Iolanthe, Iona, Isabella, Isadora, Izzy and Itzel as female "I" replacement possibilities. Plus Ilene and Iesha if you want to go with less common spellings of Eileen and Aisha.

I've seen reports by private citizens in Bermuda claiming Humberto turned out to be as bad or worse as Fabian, so I wonder if there is a chance Bermuda will ask for Humberto to be retired.

Might come a time when the WMO will either have to have the "I" row substituted with another letter that hasn't gotten many retired names or forget about going in alphabetical order to name these things, like the it is done in the WPAC.

Humberto could be a 50/50; it all depends if Jerry doesn't steal the spotlight with a direct hit and makes a Bertha/Fran scenario.

What they should do is move away from the annual cycle of names starting at A, and just go in order picking up the next year where they left off the previous year. A big reason I names get retired so often is that they tend to end up at the peak of the season. This would also avoid the problem of having to use Greek letters.